郴州市税收收入与GDP增长关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 02:11

本文选题：税收收入 + GDP增长　；参考：《湖南师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为市场经济中不可缺少的政府行为,税收是政府财政收入的主要来源。税收的增长与经济发展是分不开的,国民收入是税收的基础,没有国民收入的增长,税收增长就成了无源之水。另一方面税收反作用于经济,对经济发展起着调节的作用。 2001年以来,随着改革开放的进一步深化,作为湖南省南大门的郴州市经济得到了迅猛发展,税收也呈现了不断增长的势头。2001年-2012年十二年间,郴州市GDP的平均增幅为14.57%,税收收入平均增幅为15.99%,二者基本都保持了两位数的增长。同时,我们也看到,除了2004及2010年外,郴州市税收增长速度一直超过GDP增长速度,2007、2008两年税收收入的增速约为同期GDP增长速度的2倍。十二年间,平均每年超GDP增长1.42%。郴州市税收收入的增长与GDP的增长并不完全一致。基于此,本文试图对郴州市的税收收入与GDP增长进行比较详细的实证分析,以真实解读郴州市的税收收入与经济内在的相互关系,为郴州税收经济的协调发展提供相应的对策建议。具体写作中,本文采用了定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,以求最大限度地揭示事实。对郴州市税收与GDP之间的相关性分析结果表明,郴州市税收收入与GDP总量之间呈现高度相关,相关系数高达0.988；从经济构成看,税收收入与消费和投资的相关系数分别为0.962和0.996,说明郴州市居民和政府的消费及投资对于该地区税收收入有直接影响,税收与净出口的相关系数只有-0.175,表明净出口对于郴州市税收的作用不大；税收增长率与GDP增长率相关系数为0.329,相关性不大。回归分析的结果再一次说明郴州市税收与GDP总量两者存在长期的正向相互依存关系,模型的解释力度高达95.1%；与此同时,税收增长率可被GDP增长率解释的部分仅为35.3%,这表明郴州市税收收入的增长只有三分之一与经济增长相关。在税收对经济的作用方面,对宏观税负与经济的回归分析表明自2001年以来宏观税负与郴州市GDP增长率之间存在着一定的负相关性,宏观税负每增加(或减缓)1个百分点,GDP增长率就下降(或增长)0.495个百分点,这一定程度上可以说明,低税政策能够有利于郴州市GDP的增长。对郴州市税收收入与经济增长差异的实证分析结构表明税收征管水平、外贸进出口以及产业结构可以解释86.6%的税收增长与经济增长不协调的事实关系。其中二三产业占GDP的比重与税收收入和经济增长的差异之间存在显著的负相关关系,第二三产业占GDP的比重每增加1个百分点,税收收入就会超GDP增长1.297个百分点；税收征管水平增长率与税收和GDP增长差异存在正相关关系,具体表现为税收征管水平每提升1%将导致税收增长超GDP增长0.109个百分点；进口贸易超GDP增长率则与税收收入和经济增长间的差异呈正比,估计系数表明进口贸易超GDP增长率每增加一个百分点,即进口贸易增长超过GDP增长一个百分点,税收增长与经济增长之间的差距就增加0.399个百分点。针对实证分析的结论,文章最后提出了进一步促进郴州市税收收入与经济协调发展的四条对策建议：即促进投资消费增长,积极培育经济增长点；切实落实减税政策,促进经济快速发展；优化产业结构,促进经济税源健康增长；全面加强税收征管,不断提高征管效率。文章同时对郴州市未来几年的税收收入进行了简单预测。
[Abstract]:As an indispensable government behavior in the market economy, tax is the main source of government revenue. The growth of tax revenue can not be separated from the economic development, and the national income is the basis of the tax revenue. Without the growth of national income, tax growth becomes a passive water. On the other hand, tax revenue is counteracted on the economy and regulates the development of the economy. Effect.
Since 2001, with the further deepening of reform and opening up, Chenzhou, as the South Gate of Hunan Province, has developed rapidly, and the tax revenue has also shown a growing momentum in.2001 year twelve years -2012, the average growth rate of GDP in Chenzhou city is 14.57%, the average tax revenue growth is 15.99%, and the two people have basically maintained the two digit growth. At the same time, we also see that, in addition to 2004 and 2010, the growth rate of tax revenue in Chenzhou has been higher than the growth rate of GDP, and the growth rate of tax revenue in 20072008 years is about 2 times that of the same period of GDP. In twelve years, the average annual growth of GDP tax revenue in Chenzhou is not exactly the same as the growth of GDP. The paper makes a more detailed empirical analysis of the tax revenue and GDP growth in Chenzhou, in order to interpret the relationship between the tax revenue of Chenzhou and the internal economy, and provide the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the coordinated development of Chenzhou's tax economy.
In the specific writing, this paper uses a combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis in order to reveal the facts to the maximum extent. The correlation analysis between tax revenue and GDP in Chenzhou shows that there is a high correlation between the tax revenue of Chenzhou and the total amount of GDP, and the correlation coefficient is up to 0.988. The correlation coefficient of investment is 0.962 and 0.996 respectively, which shows that the consumption and investment of Chenzhou residents and government have a direct impact on the tax revenue in the region. The correlation coefficient of tax and net export is only -0.175, indicating that net export has little effect on Chenzhou's tax revenue; the correlation coefficient of tax growth rate and GDP growth rate is 0.329, and the correlation is not relevant. The results of the regression analysis again show that there is a long-term positive interdependence between Chenzhou's tax revenue and the total GDP, and the model is explained by up to 95.1%. At the same time, the tax growth rate can be explained by only 35.3% of the GDP growth rate, which indicates that only 1/3 of the growth of tax collection in Chenzhou is related to economic growth. In terms of the role of tax on the economy, the regression analysis of macro tax burden and economy shows that there is a negative correlation between macro tax burden and the growth rate of GDP in Chenzhou since 2001. Each increase (or slowing down) of macro tax burden is 1 percentage points, and the growth rate of GDP decreases (or increases) by 0.495 percentage points, which can be explained to a certain extent. The tax policy can be beneficial to the growth of GDP in Chenzhou. An empirical analysis of the difference between tax revenue and economic growth in Chenzhou shows that the level of tax collection and management, foreign trade import and export and industrial structure can explain the fact that the 86.6% tax growth and economic growth are not coordinated. The proportion of the two or three industry to the tax revenue and the economy and the economy of the tax revenue and economy. There is a significant negative correlation between the growth differences. The proportion of the two or three industry to GDP increases by 1 percentage points, and the tax revenue will increase by 1.297 percentage points over GDP; the tax collection and management level growth rate is positively related to the tax and GDP growth differences, which is specifically shown that the tax collection and management level of 1% will lead to the tax growth exceeding the level. GDP growth is 0.109 percentage points, and the growth rate of import trade super GDP is proportional to the difference between tax revenue and economic growth. The estimate coefficient indicates that the growth rate of import trade exceeds GDP per percentage point, that is, the growth of import trade exceeds GDP by one percentage point, and the gap between tax growth and economic growth increases by 0.399 percent. Point.
In view of the conclusion of the empirical analysis, the article finally puts forward four countermeasures and suggestions to further promote the coordinated development of Chenzhou's tax revenue and economy: promoting the growth of investment and consumption, actively cultivating economic growth point, implementing the tax reduction policy, promoting the rapid economic development, optimizing the production structure and promoting the healthy growth of the economic tax source; The tax collection and management should be strengthened and the efficiency of the collection and management is constantly improved.
The article also makes a simple prediction of the tax revenue of Chenzhou in the next few years.
【学位授予单位】：湖南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.7;F127

【参考文献】