中国居民消费倾向问题研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 02:53

本文选题：平均消费倾向 + 边际消费倾向　；参考：《中共中央党校》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：扩大居民消费是关系到国民经济平稳、健康和可持续发展的关键，也是提高人民生活和福利水平的重要途径。在当前全球经济增长乏力导致外需持续疲软的背景之下，中国经济增速开始放缓，长期存在的需求结构失衡问题依然存在，消费需求不足尤其是居民消费需求不足问题严峻。居民消费倾向是反映居民消费特点和居民消费偏好与意愿的重要指标，是研究居民消费问题的重要视角。本文以中国居民消费倾向改革开放以来总体持续下降这一现象作为切入点，深入分析了中国居民消费倾向变化的特征及存在的问题、中国居民消费结构升级状况及存在的问题，并阐述了制约居民消费结构升级的内外因素，探讨了导致居民消费倾向下降的原因，分析了提高居民消费倾向的必要性，提出“居民消费倾向下降是个体理性选择，却可能导致收入被动调整这一集体非理性结果”的观点，对比分析了中国和美国、日本及南非的居民消费倾向，并基于此提出了提高居民消费倾向的对策建议。我国最终消费率下降主要是由居民消费率下降引起的，居民消费率下降在一定程度上是由居民消费倾向下降引起的。改革开放以来，我国居民消费也有了快速增长，但增长速度慢于居民收入和经济增长速度，同时居民消费也处于较低水平。中国城乡居民平均消费倾向总体上呈现出下降趋势，其中城镇居民平均消费倾向自90年代以来呈现持续下降趋势，农村居民平均消费倾向自改革开放以来在波动中下降，城镇居民边际消费倾向呈现微弱的波动下降趋势，农村居民边际消费倾向波动幅度明显大于城镇居民，但未发现农村居民边际消费倾向下降的迹象。城乡居民消费倾向的变化既表现出一定的共性，又表现出一定的差异，存在二元特征，就总体而言农村居民平均消费倾向略低于城镇居民。除此之外，城乡居民消费倾向均表现出逆周期特征。城乡居民消费倾向下降是发生在居民收入快速增长的背景之下，与此同时在居民收入和消费绝对水平仍然不高的情况下，居民平均消费倾向已经下降至较低水平。改革开放以来，中国城乡居民消费结构升级明显，但仍然存在城乡居民消费结构差距拉大和消费结构升级趋缓的问题。制约城乡居民消费结构升级的内外因素包括节俭的传统文化、人口结构、收入水平、制度变迁、实际利率、信贷约束、产品供给状况等。导致居民消费倾向持续下降的原因在于：人口因素方面，生育率和出生率下降、预期寿命延长和死亡率下降导致人口年龄结构发生显著变化，劳动年龄人口比重上升，少儿抚养比下降明显，老年抚养比略升，对居民消费倾向下降具有一定解释力。收入因素方面，居民收入快速增加、收入中暂时性比重增大和居民之间收入差距拉大，导致居民消费倾向下降。制度因素方面，以市场化为导向的经济体制改革，尤其是上世纪90年代以来教育、医疗和社会保障等领域的改革在快速提高居民收入水平的同时，，也导致居民收支不确定性增加，进而导致居民预防性储蓄增加。除此之外，有效供给不足、流通体系不健全和消费信贷发展滞后都在一定程度上制约了居民消费需求，压低了居民消费倾向。居民平均消费倾向下降，一方面为中国经济高速增长提供了建设资金，另一方面也加剧了经济增长对投资和出口的依赖，形成了过度依赖投资和出口的“体外循环”增长模式。在需求约束型经济形态、工业化后期发展阶段、外贸依存度较高、出口竞争优势逐渐丧失等背景之下，这种过度依赖投资和出口的“体外循环”增长模式变得难以持续。居民消费倾向下降是居民在收入快速增长、收入差距拉大、社会保障建设滞后、社会抚养负担比降低等环境之下做出的个体理性选择，却可能会导致居民收入水平降低或收入增速减缓的集体非理性结果，从个体理性到集体非理性的作用机制在于从“储蓄-投资”和“储蓄-未来消费”两个传导通道的“漏出”。基于以上原因，提高居民消费倾向势在必行。提高居民消费倾向应着力从改善收入分配结构、健全社会保障体系和塑造良好的消费环境等方面着手。完善收入分配结构，既包括提高居民收入占国民收入的比重，更包括通过税收和转移支付等手段实现更加均衡和公平的居民收入分配结构。完善收入分配结构要以促进就业为抓手，尤其注重扶持中小企业和服务业的发展。健全社会保障体系除提高社会保障水平之外，更要注重扩大社会保障体系的覆盖面，实现城乡社会保障一体化。在增加社会保障基金支出的同时，要注重降低个人筹资比重。塑造良好的消费环境包括增加有效供给水平、鼓励创新、健全流通体系和提高对居民消费的金融支持水平。通过改善收入分配结构、健全社会保障体系和塑造更加良好的消费环境，提高居民消费倾向，增强居民消费欲望，进而扩大居民消费，实现经济稳定、健康和可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Expanding the consumption of residents is the key to the smooth, healthy and sustainable development of the national economy. It is also an important way to improve the people's living and welfare level. In the background of the weak growth of the global economy, the growth of China's economic growth is slowing down, and the problem of the unbalanced demand structure still exists in the long term. The shortage of demand, especially the shortage of residents' consumption demand, is a serious problem. The tendency of residents' consumption is an important index reflecting the characteristics of residents' consumption and the preference and willingness of residents' consumption. It is an important perspective to study the problem of residents' consumption.
This paper, based on the overall continuing decline of Chinese residents' consumption tendency since the reform and opening up, analyzes the characteristics and existing problems of the change of Chinese consumption tendency, the status and existing problems of the consumption structure of Chinese residents, and expounds the internal and external factors that restrict the upgrading of the consumption structure of the residents. The reason for the declining tendency of residents' consumption is to analyze the necessity of improving the tendency of residents' consumption, and put forward that "the decline in the tendency of consumption of residents is individual rational choice, but may lead to the passive adjustment of the collective irrational results", and compares and analyses the consumption tendency of residents in China and the United States, Japan and South Africa, and based on this Countermeasures and suggestions to improve the consumption tendency of residents.
The decline of the final consumption rate in China is mainly caused by the decline of the consumption rate of residents. The decline of the consumption rate of residents is caused by the decline of the consumption tendency to a certain extent. Since the reform and opening up, the consumption of residents in China has also increased rapidly, but the growth rate is slower than that of residents' income and economic growth, and the consumption of residents is also in low water. In general, the average consumption tendency of urban and rural residents in China shows a downward trend in general. The average consumption tendency of urban residents has been declining since 90s. The average consumption tendency of rural residents has declined since the reform and opening up, the marginal consumption tendency of urban residents has a weak trend of fluctuation, and the rural residents' marginal consumption trend is declining. The fluctuation of the consumption tendency is obviously greater than that of the urban residents, but there is no sign of the decline of the marginal consumption tendency of the rural residents. The change of the consumption tendency of urban and rural residents shows a certain commonness and a certain difference, and there are two yuan characteristics. In general, the average consumption tendency of rural residents is slightly lower than that of the urban residents. In addition, The consumption tendency of urban and rural residents shows an inverse cycle characteristic. The decline of urban and rural residents' consumption tendency is under the background of the rapid growth of residents' income. At the same time, the average consumption tendency of residents has fallen to a lower level when the absolute level of residents' income and consumption is still not high.
Since the reform and opening up, the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in China has been upgraded obviously, but there is still a problem of widening the gap between urban and rural residents' consumption structure and the slow upgrading of the consumption structure. The internal and external factors restricting the upgrading of urban and rural residents' consumption structure include the traditional culture, the population structure, the income level, the institutional change, the real interest rate, the credit constraint, and the production. The supply condition of the product, etc.
The reasons for the continuing decline in consumption tendency are: population factors, the decline of fertility and birth rate, the prolongation of life expectancy and the decline of death rate, which lead to significant changes in the age structure of the population, the increase in the proportion of the working age population, the decrease of the child support ratio, the increase of the elderly dependency ratio, and the decline of the consumption tendency of the residents. In terms of income factors, the rapid increase in income, the increasing proportion of the income and the widening of the income gap between residents have led to a decline in the consumption tendency of the residents. In the aspect of institutional factors, the market-oriented reform of the economic system, especially in the 90s of the last century, was fast in the fields of education, medical and social security. At the same time, increasing the income level of the residents, it also leads to the increase of residents' income and expenditure, which leads to the increase of residents' Preventive Savings. In addition, the shortage of effective supply, the imperfect circulation system and the lag of the development of consumer credit have restricted the consumption demand of residents to a certain extent and lower the tendency of residents' consumption.
The average consumption tendency of residents declined, on the one hand, it provided construction funds for China's rapid economic growth, on the other hand, it also aggravated the dependence of economic growth on investment and export, and formed a "external circulation" growth model of excessive dependence on investment and export. In demand constrained economy, the latter stage of industrialization, and the dependence on foreign trade Under the background of higher export competitive advantage, the "extracorporeal circulation" growth model of excessive dependence on investment and export has become difficult to continue. The decline of residents' consumption tendency is the individual reason for residents' rapid growth in income, the widening of income gap, the lagging of social security construction and the reduction of social support burden ratio. Sexual choice may lead to the collective irrational results that reduce the income level of residents or slow the growth of income. The mechanism of the action from individual rationality to collective irrational is the "leakage" from the two channels of "savings investment" and "savings and future consumption". Based on the above reasons, it is imperative to improve the consumption tendency of residents.
In order to improve the consumption tendency of residents, we should focus on improving the structure of income distribution, improving the social security system and shaping a good consumption environment, and improve the structure of income distribution, including increasing the proportion of the income of the residents to the national income, and realizing the more balanced and fair income of the residents through the means of tax and transfer payment. In addition to improving the level of social security, we should pay more attention to expanding the coverage of social security system and realize the integration of social security in urban and rural areas, while increasing the expenditure of social security funds. We should pay more attention to reducing the proportion of individual financing. Shaping a good consumption environment includes increasing the level of effective supply, encouraging innovation, improving the circulation system and improving the level of financial support for residents' consumption. By improving the structure of income distribution, improving the social security system and shaping a better consumption environment, improving the tendency of residents' consumption and increasing the residents' consumption. Consumption desire, thereby expanding household consumption and achieving economic stability, health and sustainable development.
【学位授予单位】：中共中央党校
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1

【引证文献】