我国地方性政府支出对城乡居民消费影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-08 03:17

本文选题：地方性政府支出 + 城乡居民消费　；参考：《南京大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：从1978年以来,我国经济的增长率一直处于较高的水平,但是居民消费对经济增长的贡献率却处于一个比较低的水平。在如今,居民消费疲软已经直接制约着我国经济的健康持续发展。且我国区域经济发展不平衡,城乡二元化结构仍较严重,故在分析我国财政支出对居民消费影响时应考虑到我国的区域差异及城乡差异。在这一背景下,本文对地方性政府财政支出与我国不同区域城乡居民消费之间的关系进行了分析研究。在前人研究成果的基础上,本文首先从理论上对政府支出与居民消费的关系进行了分析。然后考察了我国地方性政府支出与城乡居民消费的现状,紧接着本文再对地方性分类政府支出与城乡居民消费进行实证研究,来确定两者之间的关系。最后根据实证分析,本文整理了关于政府财政支出的政策建议,以此来更有效的刺激居民消费。本文的第二章回顾了财政支出与居民消费的相关理论。本文的第三章并分析了近年来我国地方性政府支出的总量及结构、居民消费水平的变动等情况。本文将地方性政府支出分为民生性支出、经济建设支出及行政管理支出,把我国分为东中西三个区域。考察结果发现,虽然我国政府支出与居民消费在总额上都保持着增长的态势,但我国东部、中部、西部不论在政府支出水平还是在居民消费水平上都存在着较大差距,且在我国城乡二元化经济结构背景下,我国城乡居民消费差距仍然较大。本文在计量方法上采用了面板数据方法,对我国30个省从1998年到2011年14年的地方性政府分类财政支出及城乡居民私人支出的数据进行计量分析,来研究两者之间的关系。最后基于前文的分析,本文认为各地区应依据自身经济发展及社会发展的情况来制定财政政策,而不是一味的扩大财政支出的总量,并提出了刺激居民消费的地方性政府财政支出的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since 1978, the economic growth rate of our country has been in a high level, but the contribution rate of resident consumption to economic growth is at a relatively low level. At present, the weak consumption of residents has directly restricted the healthy and sustainable development of our economy. The regional economic development of our country is unbalanced, and the urban-rural dual structure is still serious, so we should take into account the regional and urban-rural differences when analyzing the influence of our country's fiscal expenditure on the consumption of residents. This paper analyzes the relationship between local government expenditure and urban and rural residents' consumption in different regions of China. Based on the previous research results, this paper firstly analyzes the relationship between government expenditure and resident consumption. Then it investigates the current situation of local government expenditure and urban and rural residents' consumption. Then this paper makes an empirical study on the local classified government expenditure and urban and rural residents' consumption to determine the relationship between the two. Finally, according to the empirical analysis, this paper collates the policy recommendations on government fiscal expenditure, in order to stimulate residents' consumption more effectively. The second chapter reviews the related theories of fiscal expenditure and resident consumption. The third chapter also analyzes the total amount and structure of local government expenditure and the change of resident consumption level in recent years. This paper divides the local government expenditure into three areas: people's livelihood expenditure, economic construction expenditure and administrative expenditure, and divides our country into three regions: East, West and West. The results show that, although the total amount of government expenditure and resident consumption in our country has maintained a trend of growth, there is a big gap between the eastern, central and western parts of China, whether in the level of government expenditure or in the level of residents' consumption. Under the background of urban-rural dual economic structure, the consumption gap between urban and rural residents is still large. In this paper, the panel data method is used to analyze the data of local government classified fiscal expenditure and urban and rural residents' private expenditure from 1998 to 2011 in 30 provinces of China, to study the relationship between them. Finally, based on the previous analysis, this paper believes that each region should formulate fiscal policies according to its own economic development and social development, rather than blindly expand the total amount of fiscal expenditure. And put forward the policy suggestion of local government expenditure that stimulates the resident consumption.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;F812.45

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