西藏自治区金融发展与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 05:15

本文选题：西藏金融 + 西藏经济　；参考：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济增长关系到一国的社会发展与政治稳定,而金融作为现代经济增长的核心,其发展水平会严重影响该国或该地区的经济增长速度,所以金融发展与经济增长的相互作用关系一直是学术界研究的永恒热点,但不同国家不同地区金融发展同经济增长间相互作用的机理存在明显差异,照搬硬套其他国家或地区的研究成果,对本国家或地区的帮助可能收效甚微,更有可能会出现水土不服的现象。西藏,神秘而古老的城市。一直以来由于其地理、文化的差异,使得其经济、金融发展相对落后,但随着改革开放以及中央不断加大对西藏经济发展的特殊帮助。在短短几十年中,西藏自治区有了翻天覆地的变化。西藏自治区能够实现如此巨大的变化,不仅是由于其自身的努力,更离不开党中央及援藏各省市的帮助。仅在2011年内,西藏自治区地区生产总值突破600亿大关,同比增长12.7%。人均生产总值达20077元,相比改革开放初期的375元,也有了较大进步。产业结构不断升级,已初步实现了以服务业带动全区经济发展的产业结构模式。随着西藏经济的不断发展西藏金融业也迎来了改革的春风。截至2012年底,西藏全区共计八家银行业金融机构、两家证券公司、十家上市公司四家保险公司及六家担保公司。其中中国建设银行西藏分行在西藏境内共有24家分支机构,分别分布在林芝、山南、日喀则、昌都及拉萨,阿里支行正在筹建中；中国银行西藏分行在西藏境内共有20家分支机构,分别分布在林芝、山南、日喀则拉萨；作为服务于全区农牧区金融业的核心力量-中国农业银行西藏分行,在全区范围内共有504家分支机构,遍布西藏各个地区；改制后的中国邮政储蓄银行西藏分行于2008年正式营业,在全区境内共有一类网点14家,代理网点36个；2008年正式营业的中国工商银行西藏分行,由于相比其他国有银行进驻时间断、业务量少等客观因素,导致其在辖区内仅有区分行一家机构(日喀则、林芝支行正在筹建中)；国家开发银行西藏自治区分行、中国农业发展银行西藏自治区分行两家政策性银行业也分别于2011年和2012正式成立；西藏首家地方法人银行-西藏银行也于2012年正式成立；随着2011年中国中投证券有限公司拉萨营业部的正式成立,结束了全区只有西藏信托投资公司(即西藏同信证券有限公司)一家证券公司的历史；在过去五年间,西藏金融保险业也呈现出雨后春笋般的发展态势,安邦财险、中国平安、中国人寿的相继正式成立,使全区只有中国人保财险西藏分公司一家企业独挡一面的局势得到一定改善。随着嘉信、融资担保西藏分公司的设立,全区共有担保公司六家(财信、世丰、建设、拉萨市信用担保公司)。在看到如此振奋人心的喜讯同时,我们还必须清醒认识到西藏自治区经济金融发展存在的诸多不足：实体经济造血能力依然不足、农牧区发展相对滞后、产业结构畸化发展、贫困化依然突出、金融结构不优化、金融效率低下、资本市场发展缓慢。这一系列问题如同一座大山,挡在西藏经济、金融发展前进的道路上。所以,本文希望通过研究西藏自治区金融发展与经济发展问的关系,找出一条有中国特点西藏特色的金融促进西藏经济发展康庄大道,为西藏自治区同全国一道在2020年实现全面步入小康社会提供一定的帮助。本文共分为五个章节,所研究的主要内容为：第一章为绪论,其中主要包含本文研究的背景与意义、国内外学者对于金融发展与经济增长相关关系的研究综述及概括描述本文的创新点与不足点。第二章为理论综述,其中主要包含关于经济发展、金融发展及两者相关发展的经典理论,为论文下后续部分具体分析、研究西藏自治区金融发展与经济增长间相关性关系提供了较为坚实理论基础。第三章为西藏自治区经济、金融发展情况,其中主要包含西藏自治区经济、金融发展历史和现状,并系统的分析了西藏自治区经济、金融发展存在的不足,最后还通过线性图表初步确定西藏自治区金融发展同经济增长存在某种相关性关系。第四章为西藏自治区金融发展与经济增长关系的实证分析,从上一章对西藏自治区金融发展同经济增长的数据进行粗略的线性分析中发现,上世纪90年代之后,西藏自治区经济、金融发展迅速,两者之间的相关性也更加突出。所以本文选取了1990年至2011年的西藏自治区金融发展与经济增长数据,通过选取三个因变量指标即西藏自治区人均地区生产总值、西藏自治区农牧民人均纯收入及西藏自治区产业结构优化度((第二产业增加值+第三产业增加值)／西藏自治区地区生产总值)为西藏自治区经济发展指标；西藏自治区金融发展规模(西藏自治区金融机构年末存贷款余额的加总／西藏自治区地区生产总值)、西藏自治区金融中介效率(西藏自治区金融机构年末贷款余额／西藏自治区金融机构年末存款余额)及西藏自治区金融结构(西藏自治区保费收入／西藏自治区地区生产总值)为自变量即金融发展指标。根据本文所选取样本的特点,倘若不确保数据的平稳性,可能会存在伪回归的现象,从而使得之后的检验毫无意义。因此为确保实证结果的真实、有效性,首先,必须通过ADF单位根检验来对变量的平稳性进行检验,通过单位根检验发现在5%的显著性水平下人均GDP、产业结构优化度、农牧民人均纯收入、金融规模、金融结构、金融中介效率这六个指标的原时间序列都是非平稳的,而其一阶差分变量均是平稳的。接下来本文以三个因变量为单位分别对三组数据进行了Johansen协整检验已验证各变量间是否存在长期稳定的关系进行,在进行协整检验之前首先要利用了VAR模型确定样本最优滞后阶数,并通过AIC准则可以确定VAR模型最优滞后阶数为2阶,在确定了VAR模型最优滞后阶数为2阶的前提下确定Johansen协整检验的最优滞后阶数为1阶,在此基础上确定了协整方程,并确定了各变量间存在长期稳定的关系。该关系具体为：(一)西藏自治区金融发展规模和西藏自治区金融中介效率同西藏自治区人均国内生产总值呈正向相关关系,而西藏自治区金融结构同西藏自治区人均国内生产总值呈负向相关关系(二)西藏自治区金融中介效率和西藏自治区金融结构同西藏自治区产业结构优化度呈正向相关关系,而西藏自治区金融发展规模同西藏自治区产业结构优化度呈负向相关关系(三)西藏自治区金融发展规模和西藏自治区金融机构效率同西藏自治区人均农牧民人均纯收入呈正向相关关系,而西藏自治区金融结构同西藏自治区人均农牧民人均纯收入呈负向相关关系。虽然已经验证了变量间是否存在长期稳定的关系,但金融发展变量与经济增长变量间是否存在因果关系还不得而知,所以在实证检验的最后本文通过格兰杰因果检验对变量间是否存在因果关系,具体结果如下：滞后1期时,西藏自治区金融中介效率是西藏自治区人均地区生产总值增长的格兰杰原因,西藏自治区金融发展规模是西藏自治区产业结构优化不断优化的格兰杰原因,西藏自治区金融中介效率是西藏自治区农牧民人均纯收入增长的格兰杰原因；滞后2期时,西藏自治区金融发展规模和西藏自治区金融中介效率是西藏自治区人均地区生产总值增长的格兰杰原因,西藏自治区金融发展规模是西藏自治区产业结构优化度不断优化的格兰杰原因,西藏自治区金融发展规模是西藏自治区农牧民人均纯收入增长的格兰杰原因；滞后3期时,西藏自治区金融发展规模是西藏自治区人均地区生产总值增长的格兰杰原因。在本章的最后一节,分析、解释了出现这种实证结果的原因。第五章为政策建议,通过前一章节对西藏金融发展与经济增长相关性关系的实证研究结果进行总结,发现在长期内多数金融发展变量对西藏自治区经济增长起到一定的促进作用,但其效果不显著且少数金融发展变量在长期内阻碍了西藏自治区经济增长；在格兰杰因果关系分析中金融发展变量同经济增长变量均呈单向因果关系(即西藏自治区金融发展是西藏自治区经济增长的格兰杰原因,而西藏自治区经济增长不是西藏自治区金融发展的格兰杰原因)。由于西藏经济、金融发展独有的大财政小银行模式,导致了其金融发展对经济增长的促进作用还处于单纯提供金融服务供给的初级阶段,且全区金融发展金融抑制现象也尤为突出。落后的全区金融发展不能为西藏自治区经济增长提供更为全面的支撑,而同样全区落后的经济发展也无法触发其对西藏自治区金融业不断发展从而提供更为全面的金融服务的需求。落后的全区经济、金融发展导致了资本不足-发展无力-资本不足的逆向“马太效应”的产生,使得全区经济金融发展一直处在徘徊于低级别的经济金融发展循环。从以上实证分析结果发现西藏经济金融发展仍存在诸多问题,所以本章作为促进西藏经济金融发展的政策意见,其重要性不言而喻,通过对西藏金融发展和经济发展分别提出具体的政策意见,从而为今后能够有的放矢的发展全区经济金融工作,以实现西藏自治区经济、金融发展的良性互动机制。
[Abstract]:Economic growth is related to the social development and political stability of a country, and as the core of the modern economic growth, the development level of the economy will seriously affect the economic growth rate of the country or the region, so the interaction relationship between financial development and economic growth has always been a permanent focus of academic research, but the finance of different countries and regions There are obvious differences in the mechanism of the interaction between the development of the economy and the economic growth, and the research results of the hard set of other countries or regions may have little effect on our country or region, and more likely to be ineffective.
Tibet, the mysterious and ancient city. Since its geographical and cultural differences, its economic and financial development is relatively backward, but with the reform and opening up and the special help of the Central Committee on the economic development of Tibet. In the short decades, the Tibet autonomous region has changed greatly. The Tibet autonomous region can achieve this The great change is not only due to its own efforts, but also without the help of the Party Central Committee and the provinces and municipalities. In 2011, the GDP of the Tibet autonomous region broke through 60 billion key points, and the per capita GDP of 12.7%. reached 20077 yuan, compared with 375 yuan at the beginning of the reform and opening up. It has initially realized the industrial structure mode of promoting economic development in the whole region by service industry.
With the continuous development of Tibet's economy, Tibet's financial industry has also ushered in the spring of reform. By the end of 2012, there were eight banking financial institutions in Tibet, two securities companies, ten listed companies, four insurance companies and six Guarantee Corporation. The Tibet branch of China Construction Bank had 24 branches in Tibet, respectively. In Linzhi, Shannan, Shigatse, Changdu and Lhasa, the Ali branch is under construction; the Bank of China, Tibet branch, has 20 branches in Tibet, which are distributed in Linzhi, Shannan, and Lhasa, respectively. As the core of the financial industry in the agricultural and pastoral areas of the region, the Tibet branch of the Agricultural Bank of China has a total area. 504 branches are all over Tibet, and the Tibet branch of China Post Savings Bank, which has been reformed, is officially open in 2008. There are a total of 14 outlets and 36 agency outlets within the territory of the whole region; the ICBC branch of the ICBC, which has officially opened in 2008, is objective due to the short time and less business of the other state-owned banks. It leads to only one branch of the District branch in the jurisdiction (Shigatse, Linzhi branch is in Chou Jianzhong); the Tibet Autonomous Region Branch of the National Development Bank, the Tibet Autonomous Region Branch of the China Agricultural Development Bank, two policy banks are also formally established in 2011 and 2012; the first local legal person bank in Tibet - the Tibet bank is also 2012 The year was formally established; with the formal establishment of the Lhasa China Investment Securities Co., Ltd. in 2011, the history of the only Tibet trust and investment company (Tibet Tongxin Securities Co., Ltd.) was completed in the whole region. In the past five years, the financial and insurance industry in Tibet has also shown a springing up trend of development. China is safe and China life has been formally established. The situation of only one company in Tibet branch of Tibet branch in the whole region has been improved. With the establishment of Tibet branch, there are six Guarantee Corporation (financial letter, Shi Feng, construction, Lhasa Credit Guarantee Corporation).
At the same time, at the same time, we must be aware of the shortcomings of the economic and financial development in Tibet Autonomous Region: the economic and financial development of the autonomous region is still inadequate, the development of the agricultural and pastoral areas is relatively lagging, the industrial structure is deformed, the poverty is still outstanding, the financial structure is not optimized, the financial efficiency is low, the capital market hair is sent. This series of problems is like a big mountain, which is on the road of Tibet economy and financial development. Therefore, this article hopes to find a way to promote the development of Tibet economy through the study of the relationship between financial development and economic development in Tibet autonomous region, and to find a way to promote Tibet economic development with the characteristics of Tibet with Chinese characteristics, and the Tibet autonomous region is the same as the whole country. Tao will provide some help for achieving a well-to-do society in 2020.
This article is divided into five chapters. The main contents of the study are:
The first chapter is the introduction, which mainly includes the background and significance of this study, the domestic and foreign scholars on the research of the relationship between financial development and economic growth and summarizes the innovative points and shortcomings of this article.
The second chapter is a theoretical review, which includes the classic theories about economic development, financial development and the development of the two. It provides a more solid theoretical basis for the subsequent part of the paper to analyze the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Tibet autonomous region.
The third chapter is the economic and financial development of Tibet autonomous region, including the economy of Tibet autonomous region, the history and present situation of financial development, and systematically analyses the shortcomings of the economic and financial development of the Tibet autonomous region. Finally, it is preliminarily determined that there is some correlation between the financial development and economic growth in the Tibet autonomous region. Department.
The fourth chapter is an empirical analysis of the relationship between financial development and economic growth in the Tibet autonomous region. From the previous chapter, a rough linear analysis of the data of the financial development and economic growth in the Tibet autonomous region was found. After the 90s, the economic development of the Tibet autonomous region was rapid and the correlation between the two was also more prominent. From 1990 to 2011, the Tibet autonomous region financial development and economic growth data, through the selection of three dependent variables, the per capita GDP of the Tibet autonomous region, the per capita net income of farmers and herdsmen in the Tibet autonomous region and the industrial structure optimization of the Tibet autonomous region (the second industry added value + third industry value added) / Tibet autonomous region region GDP) is the economic development index of the Tibet autonomous region; the scale of financial development in the Tibet autonomous region (the total of the remaining balance of the deposit and loan balance of the Tibet autonomous region financial institutions at the end of the year), the financial intermediation efficiency of the Tibet autonomous region (the year-end loan balance of the Tibet autonomous region financial institution / the year-end deposit of the Tibet autonomous region financial institution) The financial structure of Tibet autonomous region (the premium of Tibet autonomous region / GDP of Tibet autonomous region) is an independent variable, that is, financial development indicators.
According to the characteristics of the sample selected in this paper, if the stability of the data is not ensured, there may be a pseudo regression phenomenon, which makes the subsequent inspection meaningless. So in order to ensure the authenticity and validity of the empirical results, first, the stability of the variable must be tested by the ADF unit root test, and the unit root test is found to be in 5%. Under the significant level, the per capita GDP, the industrial structure optimization, the per capita net income of the farmers and herdsmen, the financial scale, the financial structure, the financial intermediation efficiency are all non-stationary, and the first order difference variables are stationary. Then this paper carries out the Johansen Association for the three sets of data, respectively, with the units of three dependent variables. The whole test has verified whether there is a long-term stable relationship between the variables. Before cointegration test, the VAR model is first used to determine the optimal lag order of the sample, and the optimal lag order of the VAR model can be determined to be 2 order through the AIC criterion, and the Johansen cointegration is determined under the premise that the optimal lag order of the VAR model is 2. The optimal lag order of the test is 1 order. On this basis, the cointegration equation is determined, and the relationship between the variables is determined. The relationship is: (1) the scale of financial development in Tibet autonomous region and the financial intermediary efficiency of the Tibet autonomous region are positively related to the per capita GDP of the Tibet autonomous region, and the autonomy of Tibet autonomous region is autonomous. The regional financial structure is negatively related to the per capita GDP in Tibet autonomous region (two) the financial intermediation efficiency in Tibet autonomous region and the financial structure of Tibet autonomous region are positively related to the industrial structure optimization of the Tibet autonomous region, while the financial development scale of the Tibet autonomous region is negatively related to the industrial structure optimization of the Tibet autonomous region. The relationship (three) the scale of financial development in Tibet autonomous region and the efficiency of financial institutions in Tibet autonomous region have a positive correlation with per capita net income of farmers and herdsmen in Tibet autonomous region, while the financial structure of Tibet autonomous region is negatively related to the per capita net income of farmers and herdsmen in Tibet autonomous region.
Although it has been verified whether there is a long-term stable relationship between variables, it is not known whether there is a causal relationship between the financial development variables and the economic growth variables. So, in the last part of the empirical test, there is a causal relationship between the variables and the Grainger causality test. The concrete results are as follows: the Tibet autonomous region is lagging behind the 1 period. The efficiency of financial intermediation is the Grainger reason for the growth of per capita GDP in Tibet autonomous region. The scale of financial development in the Tibet autonomous region is the reason for the continuous optimization of the optimization of industrial structure in Tibet autonomous region. The financial intermediary efficiency of the Tibet autonomous region is the Grainger reason for the growth of the per capita net income of farmers and herdsmen in the Tibet autonomous region; the lagging behind the 2 phase The financial development scale of Tibet autonomous region and the financial intermediary efficiency of Tibet autonomous region are the Grainger reasons for the growth of per capita GDP in the Tibet autonomous region. The financial development scale of the Tibet autonomous region is the Grainger reason that the optimization of the industrial structure of the Tibet autonomous region is optimized continuously, and the scale of the financial development of the Tibet autonomous region is the farmers of Tibet autonomous region. The Grainger reason for the growth of the per capita net income of the herdsmen; when lagging behind 3 periods, the financial development scale of Tibet autonomous region is the Grainger cause of the growth of per capita GDP in Tibet autonomous region. In the last section of this chapter, the reasons for the emergence of this empirical result are explained.
The fifth chapter is the policy proposal. Through the previous chapter, the empirical results of the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Tibet are summarized. It is found that in the long term, most of the financial development variables play a certain role in promoting the economic growth of the Tibet autonomous region, but the effect is not significant and a few financial development variables have been hindered for a long time. The economic growth of Tibet autonomous region; in the analysis of Grainger causality, both the financial development variables and the economic growth variables have a one-way causality (that is, the financial development of the Tibet autonomous region is the Grainger cause of the economic growth of Tibet autonomous region, while the economic growth of the Tibet autonomous region is not the Grainger cause of the financial development of the Tibet autonomous region).
Because of the Tibet economy and the small financial bank pattern which is unique to the financial development, the promotion of its financial development to economic growth is still in the primary stage of providing the financial service supply simply, and the financial restraining phenomenon of the financial development in the whole region is particularly prominent. The backward economic growth of the whole region can not provide the economic growth of the Tibet autonomous region. The backwardness of the economic development of the Tibet autonomous region can not trigger its demand for more comprehensive financial services. The backward economic development of the whole region has led to the shortage of capital - the inability to develop the inadequacy of the "Matthew effect". Financial and financial development has been at a low level of economic and financial development cycle.
From the results of the above analysis, it is found that there are still many problems in the economic and financial development of Tibet, so as a policy suggestion to promote the economic and financial development of Tibet, the importance of this chapter is self-evident. By putting forward specific policy opinions on Tibet's financial development and economic development, it will be able to develop the whole region economy in the future. Financial work, in order to realize the benign interaction mechanism of Tibet autonomous region's economy and financial development.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F832.7

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