自然资源丰裕度与中国省际经济发展关系研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 07:38

本文选题：资源诅咒 + 经济增长　；参考：《上海师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自然资源本是“神赐天粮”，是经济增长的物质基础。然而自1993年英国学者Auty提出“资源诅咒”假说以来，国内外学者大量理论与实证研究发现：自然资源与经济增长之间呈现出负相关的关系，即自然资源丰裕阻碍了经济增长。不仅如此，资源丰裕地区还存在着收入不平等、寻租腐败、生态环境破坏等问题。当然也有学者对“资源诅咒”命题提出质疑。效率与公平是经济发展的两大价值目标，经济增长的速度和收入分配也是经济学界研究的热点。我国中西部地区资源较为富足，而在较长时期经济增长速度明显慢于资源贫瘠的东部地区，说明狭义“资源诅咒”假说可能在我国省际层面成立。我国资源富足地区收入差距也较大，表明丰裕的自然资源可能有恶化收入分配的效应。收入不平等也被认为是“资源诅咒”传导机制中重要的一环。为了研究我国省际层面资源禀赋对经济发展过程中效率与公平的影响，本文首先着眼于自然资源富足与经济增长的关系，分析了资源丰裕对经济增长的促进作用，然后立足中国实际，，借鉴国外研究经验，探讨自然资源对制造业投入水平、人力资本投资、制度环境这些积极因素的负面作用。正是通过这些间接的负面作用，资源丰裕对经济增长可能产生负的效应。与此同时，本文基于广义“资源诅咒”视角，从理论上分析了自然资源的收入分配效应，认为因为资源开发收益分配不公、人力资本价值被压抑、资源丰裕地区劳动力在与资本方议价时处于弱势地位，自然资源丰裕导致收入不平等。实证研究通过建立中介效应模型，区分自然资源丰裕度对经济增长的直接效应和间接效应。利用31个省（自治区、直辖市）1998~2010年的面板数据，建立适合数据特征的模型形式，进行计量分析。回归结果显示：自然资源对经济增长具有直接的正效应，然而资源通过“荷兰病”效应，挤出人力资本投入，弱化制度质量而对经济增长产生负面的间接效应，而且其绝对值大于直接效应，所以资源对经济增长的总效应在当前表现为负。其中“荷兰病”效应和人力资本投资是作用最强的传导途径。实证分析也证实：自然资源丰裕确实加剧了收入不平等，所以资源富足地区出现效率与公平同时缺失的现象。本文提出了两个判断“资源诅咒”现象是否存在的评价标准：自然资源对经济增长的总效应为负或者自然资源阻碍了经济的公平增长。据此，研究认为“资源诅咒”现象在中国省际层面是存在的。资源高价时代，资源富裕地区在短期内通过要素收入，可以实现较快的经济增长，然而应该警惕这是以牺牲其他积极因素为代价的。本文提出自然资源富足并不必然导致经济增长缓慢和收入差距扩大，“资源诅咒”是个体理性与集体理性相背离的表现，诅咒效应之所以产生的现实根源是政府对资源及资源财富的管理不善，通过政府政策的合理引导，资源富裕地区可以规避资源的诅咒效应。最后本文为资源富足地区经济发展提供了有益的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Natural resources are the "God given grain", which is the material basis for economic growth. However, since the British scholar Auty proposed the "resource curse" hypothesis in 1993, a large number of scholars both at home and abroad have found that there is a negative correlation between natural resources and economic growth, that is, the abundance of natural resources hinders economic growth. In this way, there are still problems such as income inequality, rent-seeking corruption, and ecological environment destruction, and some scholars have questioned the "resource curse" proposition.
Efficiency and fairness are the two values of economic development. The speed of economic growth and the distribution of income are also the hot spots in the economic circle. China's central and western regions are rich in resources, while the economic growth rate in the long period is slower than the poor resources in the eastern region. The narrow sense "resource curse" hypothesis may be in the interprovincial level of our country The income gap of abundant natural resources may have the effect of worsening income distribution. Income inequality is also considered to be an important part of the transmission mechanism of "resource curse". In order to study the effect of resource endowment on efficiency and fairness in the process of economic development, this article is the first one. First, we focus on the relationship between abundant natural resources and economic growth, and analyze the promoting effect of abundant resources on economic growth. Then, based on Chinese reality and drawing on foreign research experience, the negative effects of natural resources on the investment level of manufacturing industry, human capital investment and institutional environment are discussed, which are through these indirect negative effects. Role and abundant resources may have negative effects on economic growth.
At the same time, based on the broad sense of "resource curse", this paper theoretically analyzes the income distribution effect of natural resources. It is considered that the income distribution of resources is unfair, the value of human capital is suppressed, the labor force in the abundant resources is in a weak position with the bargaining of the capital, and the abundant natural resources lead to the inequality of income.
Through the establishment of intermediary effect model, the empirical study distinguishes the direct and indirect effects of natural resource abundance to economic growth. Using the panel data of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) for 1998~2010 years, a model form suitable for data characteristics is established to carry out quantitative analysis. The return results show that natural resources have direct effect on economic growth. The positive effect, however, the resource through the "Dutch disease" effect, squeezing out human capital input, weakening the quality of the system and producing negative indirect effects on economic growth, and its absolute value is greater than the direct effect, so the total effect of resources on economic growth is negative at present. The empirical analysis also confirms that the abundance of natural resources has indeed aggravated income inequality, so there is a lack of efficiency and equity in rich resources. This paper puts forward two criteria for evaluating the existence of the "resource curse" phenomenon: the total effect of natural resources on economic growth is negative or self effective. However, resources impede the fair growth of the economy. Accordingly, the study believes that the phenomenon of "resource curse" exists at the inter provincial level of China. In the era of high price, the rich regions can achieve faster economic growth through factor income in the short term. However, it should be on the alert that this is at the expense of other positive factors.
This paper suggests that abundant natural resources do not necessarily lead to slow economic growth and the expansion of income gap. "Resource curse" is a manifestation of the deviation between individual rationality and collective reason. The real root of the curse effect is the poor management of the resources and resources of the government, the rational guidance of the government policy and the rich areas of resources. It can avoid the curse effect of resources. Finally, this paper provides useful policy recommendations for the economic development of resource rich areas.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F205

【参考文献】