我国碳排放与经济发展关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-12 18:04

本文选题：碳排放 + 经济发展　；参考：《山东财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：在全球气候变暖的危机下，低碳经济作为一个新的概念和发展领域，开始被越来越多的国家所接受和选择。我国是世界上最大的发展中国家，而且是温室气体排放的第二大国，在不久的将来有可能成为能源消费和温室气体排放的第一大国。处于这样的环境下，如何协调碳排放与经济发展的关系成为我们必须关注的问题。碳排放与经济发展之间的关系是一个复杂的关系，能源作为经济发展的内在推动因素，在推动经济发展的同时，也不可避免地导致了碳排放的产生。在这一关系中，经济发展是最根本的问题。所以，在碳排放约束的条件下，我国经济能否保持持续增长是所有学者特别关注的。目前，世界各国还没有一个标准的、固定的、可借鉴的低碳经济的发展模式，所以研究碳排放与经济发展的关系、探究我国应该如何走和走什么样的低碳经济路子具有非常重要的指导意义，这不仅是当前我国发展低碳经济的主要内容，同时也是我国能否顺利实现“建设生态文明社会”目标的关键。基于此，本文对我国碳排放与经济发展之间的关系进行了实证研究。本文的内容如下：第一部分为绪论。主要介绍选题背景及意义、研究方法和研究内容、论文的创新点和不足，并界定了论文的研究对象；第二部分为文献综述。本章对国内外研究现状进行了综述，并对前人研究的碳排放与经济发展关系的理论作了比较详细的回顾，进行了简要评价，同时介绍了库茨涅茨曲线模型，，为后面的实证分析奠定了理论基础；第三部分为我国碳排放状况分析。本章内容给出了碳排放的估量方法，分别就我国碳排放情况做了总体和局部分析；第四部分为我国碳排放库兹涅茨曲线实证分析。本章运用面板数据模型，对我国碳排放库兹涅茨曲线进行了实证研究，得出我国符合碳排放库兹涅茨曲线，并且我国目前处于碳排放上升期，伴随着经济发展碳排放量仍会增加；第五部分为碳排放与行业结构的关联分析。本章从行业角度，运用灰色关联度分析方法对碳排放与行业结构进行了关联分析，得到不同行业与碳排放的关联度。第六章为研究结论及对策建议。综述全文，总结得出二氧化碳排放与经济发展关系的一般结论以及发展低碳经济的对策建议。本文的主要创新点：第一，将能源细化分为9大类来测算二氧化碳排放量，使得测算出的各个省的二氧化碳排放量的准确度更高一些；第二，基于库茨涅茨模型，利用面板数据，测算出了各个省达到碳排放峰值的具体年份，为各个省的低碳减排工作提供了时间表；第三，从行业的角度，运用灰色关联分析方法研究了碳排放与行业结构的关系，以行业结构作为研究对象，角度比较新颖。
[Abstract]:Under the crisis of global warming, low-carbon economy as a new concept and development field, began to be accepted and selected by more and more countries. China is the largest developing country in the world and the second largest country in greenhouse gas emission. It is likely to become the largest country in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission in the near future. In such an environment, how to coordinate the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development has become a problem we must pay attention to. The relationship between carbon emissions and economic development is a complex relationship. Energy, as an internal driving factor of economic development, not only promotes economic development, but also inevitably leads to the generation of carbon emissions. In this relationship, economic development is the most fundamental issue. Therefore, under the condition of carbon emission restriction, whether our country economy can maintain the sustained growth is the special concern of all scholars. At present, countries in the world do not have a standard, fixed, and can learn from the development model of low-carbon economy, so the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development is studied. It is of great significance to explore how and what kind of low-carbon economic path our country should take, which is not only the main content of developing low-carbon economy in our country, At the same time, it is the key to realize the goal of constructing ecological civilization society. Based on this, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in China. The content of this paper is as follows: the first part is the introduction. This paper mainly introduces the background and significance of the topic, research methods and research content, innovation and shortcomings of the paper, and defines the research object; the second part is a literature review. In this chapter, the current research situation at home and abroad is reviewed, and the theory of the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development is reviewed in detail, and the Kuznets curve model is introduced. It lays a theoretical foundation for the later empirical analysis; the third part is the analysis of carbon emissions in China. In this chapter, the estimation methods of carbon emissions are given, and the overall and local analysis of carbon emissions in China is made. The fourth part is the empirical analysis of the Kuznets curve of carbon emissions in China. In this chapter, the panel data model is used to study the carbon emission Kuznets curve in China, and the results show that China is in the rising period of carbon emissions. With the development of economy, carbon emissions will still increase; the fifth part is the correlation analysis between carbon emissions and industry structure. In this chapter, the correlation analysis between carbon emissions and industry structure is carried out by using the grey correlation degree analysis method, and the correlation degree between different industries and carbon emissions is obtained. The sixth chapter is the research conclusion and the countermeasure suggestion. This paper summarizes the general conclusion of the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic development as well as the countermeasures and suggestions for the development of low carbon economy. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: first, dividing energy into nine categories to measure carbon dioxide emissions, which makes the accuracy of carbon dioxide emissions from each province more accurate; second, based on Kuznets model, Using panel data, the specific year of peak carbon emission in each province is calculated, which provides a timetable for each province to reduce carbon emissions. Third, from the perspective of the industry, The relationship between carbon emissions and industry structure is studied by using grey correlation analysis.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124;F205;F224

【参考文献】