财政支出结构对居民消费率影响及传导机制研究——基于三部门动态随机一般均衡模型的模拟分析

发布时间：2018-06-12 21:05

本文选题：政府消费性支出 + 政府转移支付　；参考：《财经研究》2014年06期

【摘要】：文章在动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型框架下,将政府消费性支出和转移支付引入家庭部门,将政府投资性支出和服务性支出引入生产部门,并利用贝叶斯估计方法,分析政府消费性支出、转移支付、投资性支出和服务性支出对居民消费、消费率的影响与传导机制。结果表明:(1)增加政府消费性支出在长期内不仅挤出居民消费,而且导致居民消费率下降。(2)增加政府转移支付能够有效刺激居民消费,具有挤入效应,并且在长期内促进居民消费率提高。(3)增加政府投资性支出在长期内对居民消费具有挤入效应,但在一段时期内会导致居民消费率下降。(4)增加政府服务性支出能有效挤入居民消费,并在长期内促进居民消费率提高。
[Abstract]:In this paper, under the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, government consumption expenditure and transfer payment are introduced into household sector, government investment expenditure and service expenditure are introduced into production sector, and Bayesian estimation method is used. This paper analyzes the influence and transmission mechanism of government consumption expenditure, transfer payment, investment expenditure and service expenditure on residents' consumption and consumption rate. The results show that the increase of government consumption expenditure not only squeezes out residents' consumption, but also results in the decrease of resident consumption rate in the long run. Increasing government transfer payment can effectively stimulate residents' consumption and has crowding in effect. And in the long run, to promote the increase of the consumption rate of the residents.) to increase the government investment expenditure has a crowding effect on the residents' consumption in the long run. However, in a period of time, it will lead to the decline of the resident consumption rate. 4) increasing the government service expenditure can effectively squeeze into the resident consumption, and promote the resident consumption rate to increase in the long term.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目(12CTJ018) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(12YJC910013)
【分类号】：F812.45;F126;F224

【参考文献】