产能和产能利用率新测算方法及其应用研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 04:03

本文选题：产能 + 产能利用率　；参考：《东北财经大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：1978年以来,伴随着改革开放的逐步深入,我国经济不仅快速增长,而且遭遇了三次大规模产能过剩——1998-2001年期间我国出现了第一次大规模产能过剩,2003-2006年期间我国再次出现了大规模产能过剩,2009年开始我国又爆发了第三次大规模产能过剩。并且,我国的三次大规模产能过剩,后一次都比前一次更加严重、更加恶化。正是在这样的背景下,2008年以来,产能过剩成为我国经济理论界和宏观经济管理层共同关注的重大经济管理问题之一。虽然国内关于产能过剩的研究涉及工业经济和整个国民经济两个层面,但本文界定的产能过剩仅指工业产能过剩。对工业产能和产能利用率问题的研讨,国内外学者主要存在三个视角：企业内部视角、企业(行业、地区)比较视角和宏观经济管理视角。本文将对我国产能过剩的研究限制在宏观经济管理视角。基于宏观经济管理视角,人们关注工业产能利用的水平、是否存在工业产能过剩及其过剩的程度、产能过剩的产生原因及其调控方式,以及如何判断和监测工业产能过剩的情况。其中,产能和产能利用率测算方法以及产能过剩监测预警体系是我国产能过剩研究中的两大重点和难点问题。本文选择产能和产能利用率测算方法作为中心论题。本文详细辨析产能过剩研究中的三个基本概念——产能、产能利用率和产能过剩,并把产能概念概括为三大类：技术产能、经济产能和经验产能。相应地,产能和产能利用率测算方法分为三类：基于技术产能概念的产能和产能利用率测算方法、基于经济产能概念的产能和产能利用率测算方法以及基于经验产能概念的产能和产能利用率测算方法。进而,本文的中心论题被进一步明确为基于技术产能概念的产能和产能利用率测算方法。本文主要包括四部分内容。 1.本文梳理国内外有关产能过剩研究的相关文献,进行文献综述,并辨析和界定产能、产能利用率和产能过剩这三个产能过剩研究中的基本概念。 (1)本文把产能概念归纳为三大类：技术产能、经济产能和经验产能。本文把产能界定为一个技术产能概念,即在给定生产系统的每一个工厂能保持一个切合实际的工作安排框架内,考虑到正常的停机时间,所投入的资本和劳动力(或者所投入的资本)得到充分利用条件下,该生产系统可能达到的最大产出水平。 (2)遵循国内外学者对产能利用率概念的界定,产能利用率被定义为实际产出与产能之比。当然,实际产出和产能一般使用增加值来反映。 (3)梳理国内外的产能过剩概念,提出架构统一的产能过剩概念体系的四个原则,并理顺和形成统一的产能过剩概念体系,进而论述统一的产能过剩概念体系的优点。明确本文界定的产能过剩是指产能相对于生产量的过剩,即产能利用率小于1就是出现了产能过剩。 2.本文介绍若干种国内外有关产能和产能利用率的测算方法,并且,在对这些测算方法进行分析、比较和评价的基础上,提出产能和产能利用率的一个新测算方法,进而应用此新测算方法得到1992-2011年的我国制造业28个行业的产能利用率的测算数据。 (1)测算方法的分类与比较。按照各种测算方法所依据的数据的来源和特征的不同,本文把产能和产能利用率的测算方法分为两大类：基于宏观经济统计数据的测算方法与基于微观企业调查结果的测算方法。前者包括技术产能和经济产能两个产能概念,后者含有经验产能概念。前者的数据基础是经济统计数据,而后者的数据基础是通过对企业进行抽样调查后汇总的结果。从基本思想、误差可控性、结果稳定性和概念可操作性等四个方面,对基于宏观经济统计数据的测算方法与基于微观企业调查结果的测算方法进行了比较和评价。从误差可控性、结果稳定性和概念可操作性等三个方面,对基于技术产能概念的测算方法与基于经济产能概念的测算方法进行了比较和评价。 (2)基于技术产能概念的几种具体测算方法。由于本文界定的产能概念是一个技术产能概念，，并且我国宏观经济管理层特别关注生产资料投入所形成的生产能力、尤其重视固定资产投资所形成的生产能力,因此,本文介绍基于技术产能概念的产能和产能利用率的几种具体测算方法,包括Artus方法、过峰趋势技术、“产出/资本”比率方法、峰到峰方法、沈利生(1999)方法、杨光、马晓莹(2010)方法、龚刚、杨琳(2002)方法等。进一步,从假设的合理性、所使用的数据的特征(完全直接利用统计数据还是不完全直接利用统计数据)、对技术产能定义的运用形式等三个方面对基于技术产能概念的上述几种具体测算方法进行了比较,结论有二： ①不同的具体测算方法各有其优缺点,哪种具体测算方法的假设较为符合某时期、某区域、某产业的现实情况,该种具体的测算方法就更适用于测算此时期、此区域、此产业的产能和产能利用率的数据。 ②从形式上可以把基于技术产能的产能和产能利用率的测算方法分为三类：类型Ⅰ测算方法是应用实际产出、资本存量和劳动力这三个指标的数据来测算产能和产能利用率。类型Ⅱ测算方法是应用实际产出、资本存量这两个指标的数据(不使用劳动力的数据)来测算产能和产能利用率。类型Ⅲ测算方法是仅仅应用实际产出这一个指标的数据(不使用资本存量和劳动力的数据)来测算产能和产能利用率。而且,在对比这三种类型测算方法的优缺点之后,确定本文立足于类型Ⅲ测算方法的思想和原理来探讨产能和产能利用率的新测算方法。 (3)提出一种新测算方法。在多角度对测算方法进行分析、比较和评价的基础上,提出产能和产能利用率的一个新测算方法,并且,详细论证新测算方法所依据的假设的合理性,这是新测算方法具备合理性的论据之一；进而应用此新测算方法计算得到1992-2011年的我国制造业28个行业的产能利用率的测算数据,而且,论证了此测算数据的合理性(测算数据的合理性论证是新测算方法具备合理性的论据之二),并得出两点认识： ①不能由产能过剩的概念或定义推出：如果产能利用率在一定时期内处于上升趋势,就判断在这段时期没有出现产能过剩；如果产能利用率在一定时期内处于下降趋势,就判断在这段时期出现了产能过剩。 ②产能过剩是指产能利用率过低,低到其造成的负面影响超过正面效用,对企业生产、经济运行、乃至居民生活产生了全局性负面影响的情形。按照这个定义,过剩生产能力(即产能与实际产出之差)指标应该和产能利用率指标一起,用于判断是否出现了产能过剩。如果在一段时期内,不仅产能利用率持续“低迷”,而且过剩生产能力快速扩张,那么,过剩生产能力的迅速扩大肯定容易造成产能过剩。 3.本文通过建立计量经济模型,分析产能利用水平与通货膨胀之间的相互影响关系,以及固定资产投资对产能利用水平的影响作用；并且,立足于经济增长驱动模式角度分析我国产能过剩的深层次原因。结论是：固定资产投资的长期快速增长只是我国出现产能过剩的表面上的原因,深层次原因在于我国改革开放以来驱动国内生产总值增长的理论模式是过分依赖资本形成总额(固定资产投资)型经济增长驱动模式。 4.本文提出有关我国产能过剩治理的对策建议,并指出需要进一步研究的问题。
[Abstract]:Since 1978, with the gradual deepening of reform and opening up, China's economy has not only increased rapidly, but also encountered three large capacity overcapacity in the period of 1998-2001 years. In the period of 1998-2001 years, the first large-scale overcapacity appeared in our country. In the period of 2003-2006 years, our country reappeared large capacity surplus again, and in 2009 our country broke out third times again. In addition, the three large-scale overcapacity in China has been worse and worse than the previous time. It is in this context that overcapacity has become one of the major economic management issues of our economic theory and macroeconomic management since 2008.
Although the domestic research on overcapacity involves two aspects of industrial economy and the whole national economy, this article defines overcapacity only refers to industrial overcapacity. The domestic and foreign scholars mainly have three perspectives on the problem of industrial productivity and productivity utilization: the internal perspective of enterprises, the comparative perspective and macro of enterprises (industries, regions). From the perspective of economic management, this paper will restrict the study of overcapacity in China in the perspective of macroeconomic management. Based on the macro economic management perspective, people pay attention to the level of industrial capacity utilization, the existence of industrial overcapacity and the degree of excess capacity, the cause of the production of overcapacity and its regulation and control, and how to judge and monitor industrial production. The calculation method of productivity and productivity utilization and the overcapacity monitoring and warning system are the two key and difficult problems in the study of overcapacity in China. This paper chooses the method of calculating the productivity and productivity utilization as the central topic.
This article analyzes three basic concepts in the overcapacity study - capacity, productivity utilization and overcapacity, and generalizes the concept of productivity into three categories: technical capacity, economic capacity and experience capacity. Accordingly, the methods of productivity and productivity utilization are divided into three categories: capacity and productivity utilization based on the concept of technical capacity The calculation method is based on the concept of economic productivity and the method of calculation of productivity and productivity utilization, and the method of productivity and productivity utilization based on the concept of empirical productivity. Then the central topic of this paper is further defined as the method of estimating productivity and productivity utilization based on the concept of technical capacity.
This article mainly includes four parts.
1. this paper reviews the relevant literature on overcapacity research at home and abroad, carries out a literature review, and identifies and defines the basic concepts in the three studies of capacity, productivity utilization and overcapacity.
(1) this article sums up the concept of productivity into three categories: technical capacity, economic capacity and experience capacity. This paper defines capacity as a technical capacity concept, that is, in the framework of a practical work arrangement in each plant of a given production system, the capital and labor force (or labor) is taken into account in the normal time of downtime. The maximum output level that the production system may achieve under full utilization of the capital invested.
(2) following the definition of the concept of productivity utilization by domestic and foreign scholars, the productivity utilization ratio is defined as the ratio of actual output to productivity. Of course, the actual output and capacity are generally reflected by the added value.
(3) combing the concept of overcapacity at home and abroad, putting forward the four principles of a unified conceptual system of overcapacity, and forming a unified conceptual system of overcapacity, and then discussing the advantages of a unified conceptual system of overcapacity. Less than 1 is the emergence of overcapacity.
2. this paper introduces a number of calculation methods about productivity and productivity utilization at home and abroad. On the basis of the analysis, comparison and evaluation of these methods, a new calculation method of productivity and productivity utilization is put forward, and then the capacity utilization of 28 industries in China's manufacturing industry in 1992-2011 years is obtained by using this new method. The calculated data of the rate.
(1) the classification and comparison of calculation methods. According to the different sources and characteristics of data based on various methods, this paper divides the calculation method of productivity and productivity utilization ratio into two categories: the calculation method based on the macro economic statistics data and the measurement method based on the results based on the micro enterprise. The former includes technical capacity and economy. Capacity of two capacity concept, the latter contains the concept of empirical productivity. The data base of the former is economic statistics, and the data base of the latter is collected through the sample survey of the enterprise.
From the four aspects of basic thought, error controllability, result stability and conceptual operability, this paper compares and evaluates the calculation method based on the macro economic statistics data and the results based on the micro enterprise survey. From the error controllability, the result stability and the probability of the maneuverability, the technology productivity is based on the three aspects. The calculation method of the concept is compared with the calculation method based on the concept of economic capacity.
(2) several specific calculation methods based on the concept of technical capacity. Because the concept of productivity defined in this paper is a technical capacity concept, and the macroeconomic management of our country pays special attention to the production capacity formed by the input of production data, especially the production capacity formed by fixed assets investment, this paper introduces the technical capacity based on the technical capacity. Several specific measurements of capacity and productivity utilization include Artus, peak trend, output / capital ratio, peak to peak, Shen Lisheng (1999), Yang Guang, Ma Xiaoying (2010), Gong Gang, Yang Lin (2002), etc. further, from the reasonableness of hypothesis, the characteristics of the data used (completely direct profit) With statistical data or incomplete direct use of statistical data, three aspects of the application form of technical capacity definition are compared, and the conclusions are two:
Each of the specific measurement methods has its advantages and disadvantages, which is more suitable for the actual situation of a certain period, a certain area and a certain industry, and the specific measurement method is more applicable to the calculation of this period, the area, the data of the productivity and productivity utilization of this industry.
In form, the method of measuring productivity and productivity utilization based on technical capacity can be divided into three categories: type I calculation method is to use the actual output, the capital stock and the labor force as the three indexes to calculate the productivity and productivity utilization. Type II calculation method is to use the actual output, the capital stock of the two indicators. Data (do not use labor data) to measure productivity and productivity utilization. Type III calculation method is to use only the actual output of the data (without the use of capital stock and labor data) to measure the productivity and productivity utilization. And, after comparing the advantages and disadvantages of these three types of measurement methods, it is determined that this paper is based on the advantages and disadvantages of this method. Based on the idea and principle of type III calculation method, a new method for calculating productivity and utilization rate of capacity is discussed.
(3) a new calculation method is proposed. On the basis of the analysis, comparison and evaluation of the multi angle calculation method, a new calculation method of productivity and productivity utilization is put forward, and the rationality of the hypothesis based on the new calculation method is demonstrated in detail. This is one of the reasonableness of the new calculation method; and then the new calculation is applied to the new calculation. The calculated data of the productivity utilization ratio of 28 industries in China are calculated for 1992-2011 years, and the reasonableness of the calculated data is demonstrated (the reasonableness argument of the calculated data is two of the reasonableness of the new calculation method), and two points are obtained.
The concept or definition of overcapacity can not be introduced: if productivity utilization is on the rise in a certain period of time, there is no excess capacity in this period. If productivity utilization is in a downward trend in a certain period, the excess capacity appears in this period.
(2) overcapacity refers to the situation in which the productivity of production, economic operation, and even the life of the residents is negatively affected by the low productivity utilization, which has a negative impact on the production, economic operation and even the life of the residents. If in a period of time, not only does the productivity utilization continue to be "sluggish", and the surplus production capacity expands rapidly, the rapid expansion of surplus production capacity will certainly lead to overcapacity.
3. by setting up a econometric model, this paper analyzes the relationship between the level of productivity utilization and inflation, and the impact of fixed assets investment on the level of capacity utilization; and based on the perspective of economic growth driving mode, the deep reason of China's overcapacity is analyzed. The conclusion is: the long-term investment of fixed assets. Rapid growth is only on the surface of China's overcapacity. The deep reason is that the theoretical model that drives the growth of GDP since China's reform and opening up is a model of excessive reliance on the total amount of capital formation (fixed assets investment) type of economic growth.
4. this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for overcapacity governance in China, and points out the problems that need further study.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124

【参考文献】