中国产业结构变化的动因分析——基于投入产出模型的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 07:50

本文选题：产业结构 + 动因　；参考：《财经研究》2014年09期

【摘要】：文章依据工业化进程中产业结构变化的客观规律,在对1992-2010年中国经济发展各个时期进行"产业结构优化升级阶段"判别的基础上,通过建立竞争性投入产出模型对各产业部门产出的增长进行结构分解,以探究各产业部门产出增长的动因,并进行不同时期的比较分析,进而揭示中国产业结构优化升级的动因;同时对新兴的信息产业做了单独考察。文章还基于各种推动因素,多角度地考察了各产业部门之间的相互影响。研究发现:(1)在样本考察期,2002-2007年为产业结构优化升级时期,其推动因素为重工业的技术进步,其中冶金工业和机械工业的技术进步对产业结构优化升级的贡献较大。(2)信息产业产出快速增长的推动因素是信息产业的出口扩张和技术进步。(3)机械工业对多数产业部门都有重要影响且随时间推移变得越来越大;服务业的消费增长与投资增长对多数产业部门的消费增长与投资增长的影响较大。因此,未来实现产业结构优化升级的政策重点应是推进重工业的技术进步,尤其是冶金工业和机械工业的技术进步,扶持机械工业作为产业结构优化升级的主导产业;同时,鼓励和支持信息产业的出口和技术进步,促进服务业消费与投资增长与其他产业部门相应增长的联动发展。
[Abstract]:According to the objective law of industrial structure change in the process of industrialization, this paper makes a judgment on the stage of industrial structure optimization and upgrading in each period of China's economic development from 1992 to 2010. Through the establishment of competitive input-output model, the output growth of various industrial sectors is structurally decomposed, in order to explore the drivers of output growth in various industrial sectors, and to carry out comparative analysis in different periods. Then it reveals the motivation of optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure of China, and makes a separate investigation on the emerging information industry at the same time. Based on various driving factors, the paper examines the interaction among industrial departments from various angles. The study found that in the period of sample investigation, 2002-2007, the industrial structure was optimized and upgraded, and its driving factor was the technological progress of heavy industry. Among them, the technological progress of metallurgical industry and machinery industry contributes greatly to the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. 2) the rapid growth of information industry output is driven by the export expansion of information industry and technological progress. Industrial sectors have important implications and become larger and larger over time; The growth of consumption and investment in service industry has a great influence on the growth of consumption and investment in most industrial sectors. Therefore, the policy focus of the future industrial structure optimization and upgrading should be to promote the technological progress of heavy industry, especially metallurgical industry and machinery industry, and to support the machinery industry as the leading industry in the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure; at the same time, We will encourage and support the export and technological progress of the information industry and promote the linkage between the growth of consumption and investment in the service industry and the corresponding growth of other industrial sectors.
【作者单位】：上海金融学院国际经贸学院;上海财经大学财经研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“中国工业化进程中经济结构变化的模式和主要推动因素研究(11CJY044)”
【分类号】：F121.3;F223

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