体制弹性、增长匹配与经济增长——基于中国转型期经济增长的新解读

发布时间：2018-06-28 01:07

本文选题：体制弹性 + 深水期　；参考：《财贸经济》2014年04期

【摘要】：体制变革已经被证明是中国经济增长的主要原因。但是,在过去的30多年里,中国在其选择的体制变革道路上"走"的怎么样?体制变革是更容易还是变得更难呢?增量式与体制外的变革方式还能不能如之前一样是我们变革的主旋律呢?本文在分析中国体制变革的理论逻辑基础上提炼出体制弹性的指标,使用1982-2011年28个省(市、自治区)的面板数据捕捉中国改革开放30多年体制弹性的变化态势,发现中国的体制弹性正在不断弱化,且原有体制变革方式给中国经济所带来的增长空间已经日益狭小,体制变革已然进入"深水期",使得变革的难度越来越大。在假设其他条件不变的情况下,且中国具有改革初期的体制弹性,那么各省的理想产出水平至少是2011年的1.499倍。因此,只有加快体制变革,中国的经济还具有快速增长的可能。
[Abstract]:Institutional change has proved to be the main cause of China's economic growth. But in the past 30 years or so, how has China "walked" on the path of institutional change it has chosen? Is institutional change easier or harder? Can incremental and out-of-system change be the main theme of our change as before? On the basis of analyzing the theoretical logic of China's system change, this paper abstracts the index of system elasticity, and uses the panel data of 28 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) from 1982 to 2011 to capture the changing trend of China's institutional elasticity during the past 30 years of reform and opening up. It is found that the elasticity of Chinese system is weakening, and the growth space brought by the original system reform mode has become narrower and narrower, and the system reform has already entered the "deep-water period", which makes it more and more difficult to change. Assuming other conditions remain the same and China has institutional flexibility in the early stages of reform, provinces' ideal output levels are at least 1.499 times higher than in 2011. Therefore, only by speeding up institutional change, China's economy also has the possibility of rapid growth.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“经济持续健康发展与收入倍增计划的实现路径研究”(13&ZD029)
【分类号】：F124;F121;F224

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