我国财政赤字和经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-06-28 08:25

本文选题：经济增长 + 财政赤字　；参考：《安徽大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：财政赤字作为一种政府预算现象,目前广泛存在于不同社会政治制度和不同经济发展水平的国家中。财政赤字是政府宏观经济调控中应用最普通的一种经济变量,财政赤字政策也是国家宏观经济调控政策中的一个重要手段。财政赤字的历史并不漫长,二十世纪三十年代,资本主义经济危机蔓延,凯恩斯变革式的财政主张成功挽救了危机中的资本主义。自“凯恩斯革命”以后,纵观世界各国,在经济萎靡、发展变缓的时候都会以扩大财政支出和扩大财政赤字的代价来促使经济的复苏。然而这次成功的革命在后期却出现了较大的争议,在走出“大萧条”之后,美国经济就陷入了“滞涨”,其经济增长的有效性就受到广泛的质疑。尤其是2008年美国次贷危机引起的全球金融危机以来,世界各主要国家不约而同的扩大赤字规模,以求通过扩张的财政支出来促进经济的复苏。但是美国经济的迟迟低迷、欧洲主权债务危机的爆发却让人对赤字财政政策充满疑惑。在我国,改革开放以来,中国逐步建立起社会主义市场经济体制,为了适应经济和改革的发展,中国基本上实行的是相机抉择的财政政策,财政赤字伴随着扩张性财政政策的面貌而出现。具体而言,1993年以来,中国经济经历了通货膨胀、经济过热到通货紧缩、经济偏冷,然后转为经济局部过热、结构问题突出到2008年金融危机经济过冷,于此对应,财政政策也进行了四次次大的调整,相继实行了适度从紧财政政策、积极的财政政策、稳健的财政政策以及积极的财政政策,在这几次大的调整中,财政赤字的规模基本呈逐年递增趋势。特别是2008年实施积极的财政政策以来,中国财政赤字迅速增加,2013年中央政府拟安排财政赤字1.2万亿元。毫无疑问,财政赤字对缓解我国的财政负担,进行经济建设和体制改革都起到了一定的作用。但是就中国前几次实践的经验来说,财政政策短期见效快、影响久的特点,使得在调控过程中难以控制赤字规模的实施效果,在财政政策扩张和收缩的过程中,出现过经济过热和经济“硬着陆”的现象。历史是相似的,但绝对不会重复。我们必须思考这样几个问题：如何客观评价中国财政赤字政策的经济效应?财政赤字政策对中国经济发展有无效应、有多大效应以及效应的作用机制如何?财政赤字对于经济增长是否存在危害影响,我们该如何观察到并预防或消除这种危害?未来中国应该实施怎样的财政政策?这些问题都需要进行深入的研究,以为国家实施制定恰当的财政政策提供理论依据、分析工具和实证分析。为了解答这些问题,本文从理论和实践两个角度检验财政赤字与经济增长的关系,并由此总结出财政赤字对经济增长产生效应中重点关注的几点。并通过理论研究和实证检验,就财政赤字对经济增长产生的影响得出一定的结论。全文分五个部分：第一部分为绪论,包括研究研究目的和研究意义,以及国内外研究综述。第二部分介绍了西方经济学流派中四种不同的财政赤字理论,并做出归纳和评述。第三部分为中国财政赤字政策的实践分析,初步梳理了改革开放以来我国经济发展和财政赤字政策的状况,结合第二部分的理论分析,得出凯恩斯主义适合我国国情,并研究凯恩斯财政赤字理论作用于经济增长的实现机制。第四部分为中国财政赤字和经济增长之间的实证研究。主要包括两个部分,首先是对中国财政赤字对经济增长的作用机制的有效性进行检验,然后直接验证财政赤字与经济增长的相关关系,主要运用单位根检验、协整检验以及格兰杰因果检验,得出财政赤字和经济增长之间有着长期均衡关系以及在短期内经济增长和财政赤字之间互为格兰杰原因,而中期经济增长是财政赤字的格兰杰原因,财政赤字不是经济增长的格兰杰原因。第五部分是中国财政赤字实践,从认识和实践的角度提出正确处理财政赤字与经济增长关系的若干政策建议。本文认为短期内财政赤字对经济增长有一定作用,但中期没有作用,因此最终仍需淡出,并且中国的财政赤字实践需要进一步结合中国经济实际情况和宏观环境,也要特别注重财政赤字风险。通过理论和实证的分析检验,本文期望能给中国财政赤字政策实践提供一些有意义的借鉴。
[Abstract]:As a government budget phenomenon, the fiscal deficit is widely used in different social and political systems and countries with different economic development levels. The fiscal deficit is the most common economic variable in the government's macroeconomic regulation and control, and the fiscal deficit policy is also an important means in the national macroeconomic regulation and control policy. The history is not long. In 1930s, the capitalist economic crisis spread, and Keynes's revolutionary financial proposition successfully saved the capitalism in the crisis. Since the "Keynes revolution", all countries in the world will expand the cost of fiscal expenditure and expand the budget deficit when the economy is sluggish and the development slows down. However, the success of the revolution appeared in the late period, but after the great depression, the economy of the United States was "stagflated", and the effectiveness of its economic growth was widely questioned. Especially since the global financial crisis caused by the American subprime crisis in 2008, the major countries of the world did not. The same expansion of the deficit in order to boost the economic recovery through an expansion of fiscal spending, but the slow downturn in the US economy and the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis are full of doubts about deficit fiscal policy.
In China, since the reform and opening up, China has gradually established a socialist market economy system. In order to adapt to the development of economy and reform, China has basically implemented a discretionary fiscal policy. The fiscal deficit is accompanied by the appearance of expansionary fiscal policy. Specifically, China's economy has experienced inflation since 1993. To the deflation, the economy is cold, and then the economy is partially overheated, the structural problem is prominent to the economic overcooling of the financial crisis in 2008. In this correspondence, the fiscal policy has also been adjusted for four times, and the appropriate fiscal policy, the positive fiscal policy, the sound fiscal policy and the active fiscal policy have been carried out in succession. In several major adjustments, the scale of the fiscal deficit has been increasing year by year. Especially since the implementation of the active fiscal policy in 2008, China's fiscal deficit has increased rapidly and the central government plans to arrange a fiscal deficit of 1 trillion and 200 billion yuan in 2013. There is no doubt that the fiscal deficit will relieve the financial burden of our country and carry out economic and institutional reform. It has played a certain role, but as far as the experience of previous practice in China is concerned, the short term effect of fiscal policy is fast, and the characteristics of the long term influence make it difficult to control the effect of the implementation of the scale of the deficit in the process of regulation. In the course of the expansion and contraction of fiscal policy, the phenomenon of economic and economic "hard landing" has appeared.
History is similar, but never repeating. We have to think about such questions: how to objectively evaluate the economic effect of China's fiscal deficit policy? How does the fiscal deficit policy have effect on China's economic development, how much effect and the effect mechanism of the effect? The impact of the fiscal deficit on economic growth, I How should we observe and prevent or eliminate this harm? What kind of fiscal policy should China implement in the future? These issues need in-depth research to provide theoretical basis for the implementation of appropriate fiscal policies, analysis tools and empirical analysis. In order to answer these questions, this article examines from two angles of theory and practice. The relationship between fiscal deficit and economic growth is tested, and a few points of focus on the effect of fiscal deficit on economic growth are summarized, and some conclusions are drawn on the effect of fiscal deficit on economic growth through theoretical and empirical tests.
The full text is divided into five parts: the first part is an introduction, including the purpose and significance of research and research, as well as a summary of domestic and foreign research. The second part introduces four different theories of fiscal deficit in western economic schools, and makes a summary and comment. The third part is the practical analysis of the Chinese fiscal red word policy, and the reform is preliminarily combed. The situation of China's economic development and fiscal deficit policy since the second part of the theoretical analysis, concluded that Keynes is suitable for China's national conditions, and the study of the effect of Keynes's fiscal deficit theory on economic growth mechanism. The fourth part is an empirical study between China's fiscal deficit and economic growth. It mainly includes two parts. The first is to test the effectiveness of China's fiscal deficit on economic growth, and then directly verify the relationship between fiscal deficit and economic growth. It mainly uses unit root test, cointegration test and Grainger causality test to conclude that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between fiscal deficit and economic growth, and in the short term. Between the economic growth and the financial deficit is the Grainger reason, and the medium-term economic growth is the Grainger cause of the fiscal deficit. The fiscal deficit is not the Grainger reason of the economic growth. The fifth part is the practice of China's fiscal deficit. From the perspective of cognition and practice, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to correctly deal with the relationship between fiscal deficit and economic growth. The short term fiscal deficit has a certain role in economic growth, but it does not work in the middle period, so it still needs to fade out, and the practice of China's fiscal deficit needs to be further combined with the actual situation of China's economy and the macro environment, and we should pay special attention to the risk of fiscal deficit. The practice of fiscal deficit policy provides some meaningful references.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1;F812.4

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