经济发达城市人口承载力预测及其经济合理性评价——以无锡市区为例

发布时间：2018-06-30 07:34

本文选题：人口预测 + 土地资源承载力　；参考：《长江流域资源与环境》2014年08期

【摘要】：在经济发达地区资源环境约束趋紧和经济发展转型背景下,开展人口规模预测研究对协调人口、资源、经济之间的关系具有积极意义。以无锡市区为例,核算土地资源人口承载力与不同时间阶段经济合理人口规模,分析土地资源人口承载量与经济合理人口规模之间的关系,解析未来人口发展趋势和影响因素。结果表明:无锡市区人口仍将稳步增加,外来人口仍将是常住人口增量的主体,但增速趋缓;2015、2020年经济合理人口分别约为404万和434万人,逐渐超出土地资源承载力所确定的402万人的合理人口规模;经济增长引起的就业人口的需求增长是导致人口总量增长的主要因素。未来需要通过产业结构调整、劳动生产率提升、公共服务设施完善等手段调控人口发展,以减轻资源环境压力和保障经济发展。
[Abstract]:Under the background of tight resource and environment restriction and economic development in developed regions, it is of great significance to coordinate the relationship among population, resources and economy to carry out population scale prediction. Taking Wuxi urban area as an example, this paper calculates the population carrying capacity of land resources and the reasonable economic population scale at different time stages, analyzes the relationship between the population carrying capacity of land resources and the rational population scale of economy, and analyzes the future population development trend and influencing factors. The results show that the population of Wuxi urban area will increase steadily, and the population of foreign population will still be the main part of the increment of resident population, but the growth rate will slow down to 2015, and the reasonable economic population in 2020 will be about 404,000 and 4.34 million, respectively. It gradually exceeds the reasonable population scale of 4.02 million people determined by the carrying capacity of land resources, and the demand growth of the employed population caused by the economic growth is the main factor leading to the total population growth. In the future, it is necessary to adjust and control population development by means of adjusting industrial structure, improving labor productivity and perfecting public service facilities in order to alleviate the pressure of resources and environment and to ensure economic development.
【作者单位】：中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重点项目(41130750) 中国科学院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-06-03) 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所青年人才基金项目(NIGLAS2011QD03)
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

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