新疆技术进步对就业总量和就业结构的影响

发布时间：2018-07-07 18:10

本文选题：技术进步 + 就业总量　；参考：《新疆大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，我国的经济高速增长，但同时我国失业问题也日益凸显，即高增长伴随高失业，在这样的大背景下，新疆也不例外。国内外经济学者从技术进步的角度探求原因。本文通过综述国内外学者目前对“技术进步与就业的关系”研究；阐述技术进步与就业关系的相关理论的阐述；以及分析技术进步影响就业总量和就业结构的作用机理，旨在研究新疆技术进步对就业总量和就业结构的影响。本文运用索罗余值法测算出新疆1979～2011年的技术进步率，采用偏离—份额分析法测量出新疆三次产业的相对就业的变化量NRC，再应用OLS法回归估计新疆技术进步对就业总量及就业结构的影响。最后得出结论：（1）技术进步对就业的破坏机制和补偿机制同时存在；（2）技术进步能够调整和优化产业结构；（3）新疆技术进步对就业总量的影响并不显著；（4）新疆技术进步对第一产业的就业结构有负向影响；（5）新疆技术进步对第二产业的就业结构的影响不显著；（6）新疆技术进步对第三产业就业结构有正向影响。本文最后根据上述的理论分析和实证分析，，结合新疆实际情况提出对策和建议，希望为制定促进新疆技术进步和就业协调发展的政策提供一定的理论和实证依据，促进新疆经济跨越式发展。由于本人的水平有限，未能从行业结构、工种结构、技能取向等层面进行研究；没有从技术进步路线对就业的影响的角度做实证分析，以及没有综合多种因素来探讨技术进步对就业的影响。希望本人和更多学者能够在这几方面做深入的研究。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the economy of our country has increased rapidly, but at the same time, the unemployment problem of our country is also increasingly prominent, that is, high growth accompanied by high unemployment, in such a background, Xinjiang is no exception. Domestic and foreign economists from the point of view of technological progress to explore the reasons. This paper summarizes the current research on the relationship between technological progress and employment at home and abroad, expounds the relevant theories of the relationship between technological progress and employment, and analyzes the mechanism of the influence of technological progress on the total amount and structure of employment. The purpose of this paper is to study the influence of Xinjiang's technological progress on the total employment and employment structure. In this paper, the rate of technological progress in Xinjiang from 1979 to 2011 is calculated by using the Solow residual value method. The relative employment change of three industries in Xinjiang was measured by the method of deviation-share analysis, and the influence of technological progress on the total employment and employment structure was estimated by OLS regression. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the destruction mechanism and compensation mechanism of technological progress to employment exist simultaneously; (2) technological progress can adjust and optimize the industrial structure; (3) the influence of technological progress on total employment is not significant. (4) the technological progress of Xinjiang has a negative influence on the employment structure of the primary industry; (5) the technological progress of Xinjiang has no significant effect on the employment structure of the secondary industry; (6) the technological progress of Xinjiang has a positive effect on the employment structure of the tertiary industry. Finally, according to the above theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, combined with the actual situation in Xinjiang, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions, hoping to provide some theoretical and empirical basis for the formulation of policies to promote the coordinated development of technology and employment in Xinjiang. We will promote the development of Xinjiang's economy by leaps and bounds. Because of my limited level, I can not do research from the aspects of industry structure, job structure, skill orientation and so on, and has not made empirical analysis from the perspective of the impact of technological progress line on employment. And there are no comprehensive factors to explore the impact of technological progress on employment. I hope that I and more scholars can do in-depth research in these areas.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.3;F249.21

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