碳减排规制的行业经济成本评估与预测
发布时间：2018-07-14 21:21
【摘要】：气候变化问题已成为环境经济管理和资源、能源政策领域中的研究热点之一。应对气候变化则需要控制温室气体排放，然而控制温室气体排放的过程中经常会引发社会经济方面的损失。因此如何解决这两方面相互冲突的问题引发了广泛的关注。碳减排规制是限制温室气体排放的一个复杂的政策系统，涉及众多不同的形式的减排政策和规章。在我国经济转型的关键时期，碳减排规制的实施会面临更多的困难与挑战，也会对不同行业的经济产生不同的影响。如何辨识影响巨大的行业，确定帮扶行业及鞭策行业，如何协调平衡各个行业经济发展同二氧化碳排放之间的关系是中国目前协调行业发展，促进行业升级中急需要解决的问题。因此，本论文主要利用多目标规划模型分析碳减排规制下行业经济发展中行业生产成本的影响。主要取得以下几方面的创新性研究结果： （1）我国碳减排的各种政策将会对宏观经济、行业经济及企业运营都会产生影响。对不同运营特点的行业及企业必然也会产生不同的效应。有些行业由于有政府碳减排政策的支持而发展壮大，有些行业由于政策的实施而普遍亏损。本论文基于对碳排放驱动因素及国内不同行业的碳排放量的分析基础上，以中观行业的视角，选择具有代表意义的电力行业及汽车行业为代表，测算碳减排政策下，，行业生产的成本变动，为政府进一步制定行业政策提供理论依据。 （2）选择目标规划模型作为测度碳减排政策下行业生产成本变动的主要模型。并在基础目标规划测算行业生产成本模型中加入时间变量，将原有静态模型进行动态扩展，以期预测分析与实际情况更为相符。模型预测中国短期内至2015年，在现有碳减排规制目标下，行业生产成本的变动趋势。归纳出随经济的蓬勃发展，碳减排成本将会随之上升的特点。证明针对不同行业特色，应给予不同行业碳减排规制的必要性。 （3）针对不同行业特点，在原有目标规划分析模型中加入适用不同行业发展的减排约束。根据汽车行业特点将目标规划模型同行业增长极限约束相结合；根据电力行业特点，将严格减排目标同行业扩张相结合，进行行业减排成本灵敏度计算以增加行业间的可比性。并增加三种目标规划外影响因素对行业碳减排成本分析的定性分析。其中行业产品的替代性、技术水平均有促使行业碳减排成本减低的趋势，而要素价格的上涨有促使行业碳减排成本升高的趋势。
[Abstract]:Climate change has become one of the research hotspots in the field of environmental economic management, resource and energy policy. Combating climate change requires controlling greenhouse gas emissions, which often result in socio-economic losses. Therefore, how to solve the conflict between these two aspects has aroused widespread concern. Carbon abatement regulation is a complex policy system to limit greenhouse gas emissions, involving many different forms of emission reduction policies and regulations. In the critical period of China's economic transformation, the implementation of carbon emission reduction regulations will face more difficulties and challenges, and will also have different effects on the economy of different industries. How to identify the industries that have a huge impact, how to help and motivate the industries, and how to balance the relationship between the economic development of various industries and carbon dioxide emissions is the current coordinated development of the industries in China. Promote the industry upgrade in urgent need to solve the problem. Therefore, this paper mainly uses multi-objective programming model to analyze the influence of industry production cost in industry economic development under the regulation of carbon emission reduction. The main results are as follows: (1) various policies of carbon abatement in China will have an impact on the macro-economy, industry economy and enterprise operation. Different operation characteristics of the industry and enterprises will inevitably have different effects. Some industries have grown because of government policies to reduce carbon emissions, while others have lost money. Based on the analysis of the driving factors of carbon emissions and the carbon emissions of different industries in China, this paper chooses the representative power industry and automobile industry as the representative to calculate the carbon emission reduction policy from the perspective of the meso industry. The change of industry production cost provides the theoretical basis for the government to make further industry policy. (2) the target programming model is chosen as the main model to measure the change of industry production cost under the carbon emission reduction policy. The time variable is added to the model of the industry production cost based on the goal planning, and the static model is expanded dynamically, so that the prediction and analysis can be more consistent with the actual situation. The model predicts the changing trend of industry production cost under the existing carbon emission reduction regulation target in the short term to 2015 in China. Sum up with the vigorous development of economy, carbon abatement cost will rise along with it. It is proved that it is necessary to regulate the carbon emission reduction in different industries according to the characteristics of different industries. (3) according to the characteristics of different industries, the original target planning analysis model applies emission reduction constraints applicable to the development of different industries. According to the characteristics of automobile industry, the target programming model is combined with the limit constraints of industry growth; according to the characteristics of power industry, strict emission reduction targets are combined with industry expansion to calculate the sensitivity of industry emission reduction costs in order to increase the comparability between industries. The qualitative analysis of the cost of carbon emission reduction in the industry is carried out by adding three kinds of external influencing factors of target planning. Among them, the substitution of industry products and the technical level have the trend of reducing the cost of carbon abatement in the industry, while the rising of factor price has the trend of increasing the cost of carbon abatement in the industry.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X322;F124.5
[Abstract]:Climate change has become one of the research hotspots in the field of environmental economic management, resource and energy policy. Combating climate change requires controlling greenhouse gas emissions, which often result in socio-economic losses. Therefore, how to solve the conflict between these two aspects has aroused widespread concern. Carbon abatement regulation is a complex policy system to limit greenhouse gas emissions, involving many different forms of emission reduction policies and regulations. In the critical period of China's economic transformation, the implementation of carbon emission reduction regulations will face more difficulties and challenges, and will also have different effects on the economy of different industries. How to identify the industries that have a huge impact, how to help and motivate the industries, and how to balance the relationship between the economic development of various industries and carbon dioxide emissions is the current coordinated development of the industries in China. Promote the industry upgrade in urgent need to solve the problem. Therefore, this paper mainly uses multi-objective programming model to analyze the influence of industry production cost in industry economic development under the regulation of carbon emission reduction. The main results are as follows: (1) various policies of carbon abatement in China will have an impact on the macro-economy, industry economy and enterprise operation. Different operation characteristics of the industry and enterprises will inevitably have different effects. Some industries have grown because of government policies to reduce carbon emissions, while others have lost money. Based on the analysis of the driving factors of carbon emissions and the carbon emissions of different industries in China, this paper chooses the representative power industry and automobile industry as the representative to calculate the carbon emission reduction policy from the perspective of the meso industry. The change of industry production cost provides the theoretical basis for the government to make further industry policy. (2) the target programming model is chosen as the main model to measure the change of industry production cost under the carbon emission reduction policy. The time variable is added to the model of the industry production cost based on the goal planning, and the static model is expanded dynamically, so that the prediction and analysis can be more consistent with the actual situation. The model predicts the changing trend of industry production cost under the existing carbon emission reduction regulation target in the short term to 2015 in China. Sum up with the vigorous development of economy, carbon abatement cost will rise along with it. It is proved that it is necessary to regulate the carbon emission reduction in different industries according to the characteristics of different industries. (3) according to the characteristics of different industries, the original target planning analysis model applies emission reduction constraints applicable to the development of different industries. According to the characteristics of automobile industry, the target programming model is combined with the limit constraints of industry growth; according to the characteristics of power industry, strict emission reduction targets are combined with industry expansion to calculate the sensitivity of industry emission reduction costs in order to increase the comparability between industries. The qualitative analysis of the cost of carbon emission reduction in the industry is carried out by adding three kinds of external influencing factors of target planning. Among them, the substitution of industry products and the technical level have the trend of reducing the cost of carbon abatement in the industry, while the rising of factor price has the trend of increasing the cost of carbon abatement in the industry.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X322;F124.5
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