要素流动对区域经济结构影响的两部门模型及实证研究

发布时间：2018-07-14 21:32

【摘要】：中国的GDP增长率在2012年经历其13年来的最低水平，部分观点将其视为中国自1978年以来长达34年持续高速增长阶段的终结。虽然全球金融危机的带来了外部需求市场的萎缩，但我们认为其内部问题对此起着更重要的影响。这些问题是与中国经济增长相伴生的，财政分权与地区竞争启动了中国特色的“区域经济发展”，，同样，这种中国特色的发展模式也带来了区域间经济发展的不平衡。随着中国经济发展进程的加快，省域经济发展不均衡的矛盾日益凸显。中国经济长期以来的不均衡发展，以及这种不均衡发展态势的增加，已经威胁到中国经济今后的平稳发展和生产要素在省域间的有效配置。因此，深入分析省域经济发展不均衡的原因，并探求如何对生产要素进行有效配置，对中国经济的稳定增长有着重要的现实意义。本文在迪克西特-斯蒂格利茨的分析框架下，建立两区域两部门两要素的理论模型，将空间因素导致的要素流动边际产出发生改变纳入到区域经济结构的分析中。探求要素流动规模以及方向对区域经济结构以及区域间经济发展差距的影响。首先，本文对单一要素流动进行分析；其次，在单一要素流动的基础上，对两要素流动对区域经济结构的影响进行分析，得出要素流动边际产出的动态变化模型。最后，对要素流动对中国省域经济结构及发展差距的影响进行实证分析。数理分析及实证分析的结果表明：(1)将要素边际产出变化纳入区域经济结构的分析中更符合中国省域的现实情况。(2)通过对中国工业部门的实证分析得出，工业部门发展的减缓早于GDP的增长的减缓，流动的资本要素不足，流动的劳动力要素相对充裕。(3)资本要素流动对区域经济结构及经济差距的影响取决于区域经济发展水平，而劳动力要素的流动对发展落后区域的经济结构起到优化作用，有利于缩小区域间经济发展差距。
[Abstract]:China's GDP growth rate was at its slowest rate in 13 years in 2012 and is seen by some as the end of a period of 34 years of sustained rapid growth since 1978. Although the global financial crisis has brought about a contraction in external demand markets, we think its internal problems have a more important impact on this. These problems are accompanied by China's economic growth. Fiscal decentralization and regional competition have initiated the "regional economic development" with Chinese characteristics. Similarly, this kind of development mode with Chinese characteristics has also brought about the imbalance of regional economic development. With the acceleration of China's economic development, the contradiction of unbalanced development of provincial economy is becoming increasingly prominent. The unbalanced development of Chinese economy for a long time and the increase of this unbalanced development situation have threatened the stable development of Chinese economy in the future and the effective allocation of production factors among provinces. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to analyze the reasons for the unbalanced development of the provincial economy and to find out how to allocate the factors of production effectively, which is of great practical significance to the steady growth of China's economy. Under the framework of Dixie Stiglitz's analysis, this paper establishes a theoretical model of two regions, two sectors and two elements, and brings the change of marginal output of factor flow caused by spatial factors into the analysis of regional economic structure. This paper explores the influence of the scale and direction of factor flow on the regional economic structure and the regional economic development gap. Firstly, this paper analyzes the flow of single factor. Secondly, on the basis of the flow of single factor, the paper analyzes the influence of the flow of two factors on the regional economic structure, and obtains the dynamic model of marginal output of factor flow. Finally, the effect of factor flow on China's provincial economic structure and development gap is analyzed empirically. The results of mathematical analysis and empirical analysis show that: (1) integrating the change of marginal output of factors into the analysis of regional economic structure is more in line with the reality of China's provincial region. (2) through the empirical analysis of China's industrial sector, it is concluded that, The slow down of industrial development is earlier than the slowdown of GDP growth, the capital element is insufficient and the labor factor is relatively abundant. (3) the influence of capital factor flow on the regional economic structure and economic disparity depends on the level of regional economic development. The flow of labor factors plays an important role in optimizing the economic structure of backward regions and helps to narrow the gap of regional economic development.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F224

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