依托技术进步推进浙江产业升级的研究

发布时间：2018-07-14 21:33

【摘要】：一个国家或地区的发展历程,总是伴随着产业的持续升级和技术的不断进步。经济活动以及经济学的产生源于资源的稀缺有限,而产业升级的目的,正是为了适应本地稀缺生产要素的结构,从而更好的促进区域经济的发展。改革开放三十多年来,计划经济向市场经济的转变,显示出巨大的潜能与优势,浙江也顺势在全国经济增长中屡创奇迹。这一阶段,包括农村承包责任制全面铺展,工业内部结构调整与优化,个体私营经济从无到有,乡镇集体企业蓬勃兴起等一系列产业政策调整,均有效地刺激了省域经济的增长。 2008年全球金融危机,给严重依赖国际市场的中国制造业带来重创,浙江也未能幸免。随之而来的后全球化时代,宣告依赖外资、外贸的传统产业模式已难以为继,人口红利耗尽,而原有的国际分工格局却尚未打破。特别是,在东部沿海地区,劳动力禀赋逐步消失,资本和技术成为新的增长动力。在此条件下,浙江产业升级,再一次面临国内现实与国际环境的双重挑战。本文研究发现,改革开放三十多年来,总体分析,浙江省技术进步对经济增长的带动作用,远远超过资本和劳动力。然而,资本的投入程度却一直高于技术要素的投入。另外,劳动力投入产出特征不明显,但从实证研究结果来看,劳动力产出弹性系数远远高于资本产出弹性系数,由此推测仍保持着劳动密集型产业的增长特征。从回归结果来看,技术进步对浙江省经济增长的贡献,从1992国际经济危机后开始下降。其根本原因是,改革开放初期引进的先进技术与设备,经过一段时期的适应和发展后,对经济发挥的强势贡献力已渐趋消失,即使如此,它们在带动经济增长方面仍发挥着十分重要的作用。因此,为保证经济持续增长,就需要从技术层面上提升产业结构层次,通过完善与创新技术吸收模式,以技术进步为核心推进产业升级,充分发挥各投入要素的利用效率与贡献力度。本文共分为六章。第一章介绍研究背景和写作思路,说明本文的创新之处和难点。第二章对基础理论和相关文献进行回顾、整理与总结,从源头上和结构上理清本文研究的理论依据和思维脉络。第三章从发展阶段、政策导向、发展特点三方面,多视角审视浙江产业的现状,指出现实环境下浙江产业面临的严峻挑战。第四章从要素投入的角度出发,实证分析浙江经济增长的影响因素,通过浙江省近32年面板数据所得的各项指标,突出展示TFP增长率对经济增长贡献程度的变化,验证技术进步对浙江省产业升级的必要性。第五章提出全新的以技术进步为依托的产业升级新模式,即产业结构高级化,加工程度高度化,价值链高端化和组织管理高效化,并提出具体的实施方法与运行机制。第六章对全文作出总结,并就研究结果提出相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The course of development of a country or region is always accompanied by continuous upgrading of industry and continuous progress of technology. The production of economic activities and economics comes from the limited scarcity of resources, and the purpose of industrial upgrading is to adapt to the structure of local scarce factors of production so as to better promote the development of regional economy. Since the reform and opening up for more than 30 years, the planned economy has changed to the market economy, showing great potential and advantages, and Zhejiang has also made miracles in the economic growth of the whole country. This stage includes a series of industrial policy adjustments, including the overall spread of the rural contract responsibility system, the adjustment and optimization of the internal structure of industry, the rise of the private and individual economy from scratch, and the vigorous rise of township collective enterprises. The 2008 global financial crisis has hit China's manufacturing sector, which is heavily dependent on international markets, and Zhejiang has not been spared. Following the post-globalization era, the traditional industrial model of foreign trade has become unsustainable, the population dividend is exhausted, and the original international division of labor pattern has not been broken. In particular, in the eastern coastal areas, labor endowment gradually disappeared, capital and technology as a new engine of growth. Under this condition, Zhejiang's industrial upgrading once again faces the dual challenge of domestic reality and international environment. This paper finds that in the past 30 years of reform and opening up, the technological progress in Zhejiang Province has played a far more important role in promoting economic growth than in capital and labor force. However, the degree of capital investment has always been higher than the investment of technical elements. In addition, the characteristics of labor force input-output are not obvious, but from the empirical research results, the elasticity coefficient of labor output is far higher than that of capital output elasticity, so it is assumed that the growth characteristics of labor-intensive industries are still maintained. From the regression results, the contribution of technological progress to Zhejiang's economic growth began to decline after the 1992 international economic crisis. The fundamental reason is that after a period of adaptation and development, the strong contribution to the economy that was introduced in the early years of reform and opening up has gradually disappeared, even so. They still play a very important role in driving economic growth. Therefore, in order to ensure sustained economic growth, it is necessary to upgrade the industrial structure from the technical level and promote industrial upgrading by perfecting and innovating the mode of technology absorption and taking technological progress as the core. Give full play to the utilization efficiency and contribution of all input elements. This paper is divided into six chapters. The first chapter introduces the research background and writing ideas, explains the innovation and difficulties of this paper. The second chapter reviews the basic theory and related literature, collates and summarizes, clarifies the theoretical basis and thinking thread of this study from the source and structure. The third chapter examines the present situation of Zhejiang industry from three aspects of development stage, policy direction and development characteristics, and points out the severe challenges facing Zhejiang industry under the real environment. The fourth chapter, from the angle of factor input, empirically analyzes the influencing factors of Zhejiang's economic growth. Through the indicators obtained from the panel data of Zhejiang Province in the past 32 years, it highlights the change of the contribution of TFP growth rate to economic growth. To verify the necessity of technological progress to industrial upgrading in Zhejiang Province. Chapter five puts forward a new mode of industrial upgrading based on technological progress, that is, advanced industrial structure, high degree of processing, high value chain and high efficiency of organization management, and puts forward specific implementation methods and operation mechanism. The sixth chapter summarizes the full text and puts forward the relevant policy recommendations on the research results.
【学位授予单位】：浙江师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127

【参考文献】