人口变动对区域消费水平影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-28 07:38

【摘要】：受金融危机的冲击，外需急剧萎缩，我国依赖出口和投资的经济增长方式已经不能满足现阶段发展需求。此时，拉动内需、扩大区域消费成为经济结构调整、提高经济发展质量和效益的重点。人口作为经济生活的主体和基本单位，在扩大消费中的意义日益突出。不论是人口数量的大小、人口质量的高低，还是人口结构的优劣，都直接或间接地影响着区域消费增长。本文在现有消费理论的基础之上，从人口学角度分析区域消费的影响因素。通过对搜集到的2000年至2010年全国31个省、市、自治区的面板数据进行分析，可以得到我国现有区域消费水平整体呈上升趋势，但随着时间推移，区域间的消费水平差异逐渐拉大。通过对人口变量与区域消费逐一作相关性分析，发现各人口变量与区域消费之间均存在显著相关性。2000-2010年间人口数量一直保持增长的态势，伴随人口转变，城市化水平的深入，老龄化程度的加重，人口变动是如何影响区域消费水平的变化成为本文的研究重点。借助Eviews6.0软件，本文对区域消费函数进行探究。结果发现在不同人口因素中，城市化水平、人口受教育程度、外来人口流入率以及劳动力人口对区域消费的影响是显著的，也就是说人口因素作用在区域消费水平上的影响是显著的。除此之外，人口因素对不同地区的区域消费水平的影响程度存在差异，，这种区域差异的状态是由区域间的人口效应的差异造成的。通过分析得到如下结论：区域人口城市化滞后发展阻碍区域消费内需扩大；教育水平参差不齐减缓区域消费模式优化；人口流动集聚效应带动区域消费水平提高，应当充分利用区域间年龄结构差异发挥区域消费优势。因此我们建议，提高区域消费水平应当从深化城市化水平、提高人口素质、加快区域间人口流动以及积极发展老年人产业等几方面入手，通过扩大区域内部需求来推动区域消费水平增长，同时反过来促进人口的健康、均衡、长期发展。
[Abstract]:Under the impact of the financial crisis, the external demand shrinks sharply, and the economic growth mode, which depends on export and investment, can no longer meet the development demand at the present stage. At this time, stimulating domestic demand, expanding regional consumption has become the focus of economic restructuring and improving the quality and efficiency of economic development. As the main body and basic unit of economic life, population is becoming more and more important in expanding consumption. Whether the size of population, the quality of population, or the quality of population structure, directly or indirectly affect the growth of regional consumption. Based on the existing consumption theory, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of regional consumption from the perspective of demography. By analyzing the panel data collected from 2000 to 2010 in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China, we can find that the overall consumption level of our country's existing regions is on the rise, but with the passage of time, Regional differences in consumption levels are gradually widening. By analyzing the correlation between population variables and regional consumption, it is found that there is a significant correlation between population variables and regional consumption. With the aggravation of the aging degree, how the population change affects the regional consumption level becomes the focus of this paper. With the help of Eviews6.0 software, this paper explores the regional consumption function. The results showed that among the different population factors, the urbanization level, the education level of the population, the inflow rate of the foreign population and the labor force had significant effects on the regional consumption. That is to say, the effect of population factors on the level of regional consumption is significant. In addition, the degree of influence of population factors on regional consumption level is different, and the status of regional difference is caused by the difference of population effect between regions. The conclusions are as follows: the lagging development of regional population urbanization hinders the expansion of regional consumption domestic demand; the uneven educational level slows down the optimization of regional consumption pattern; the agglomeration effect of population mobility leads to the improvement of regional consumption level. We should make full use of regional age structure differences to give play to the advantages of regional consumption. Therefore, we suggest that the improvement of regional consumption should start with deepening the urbanization level, improving the quality of the population, speeding up the flow of population among regions, and actively developing the industry of the elderly. The regional consumption level is increased by expanding the internal demand of the region, which in turn promotes the healthy, balanced and long-term development of the population.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：C924.2;F126.1

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