宜兴市3E系统协调发展与产业结构优化研究

发布时间：2018-08-08 15:16

【摘要】：能源（Energy）、环境（Environment）、经济（Economy）构成的复合系统（3E系统）与人类的生产、生活密切相关。实现能源、环境、经济系统的协调发展不但是人类经济、社会可持续发展的根本保证，也是缓解能源危机和环境污染的有效途径。宜兴市地处江苏省南端，沪、宁、杭三角中心，是一个经贸发达的工业基地。2010年，宜兴市在县域经济竞争力排名中跃居全国第9位，全市地区生产总值突破800亿。宜兴市正本着“最适合人居、环境最好、发展最协调”的理念致力于推动其转型发展。但目前，影响宜兴经济发展的不确定因素不断增加，能源消费、环境保护与经济增长之间的矛盾日趋凸显。如何实现宜兴市3E系统的协调发展与和产业结构不断优化成为迫切需要解决的问题。因此，对宜兴市3E系统协调发展与产业结构优化问题进行研究，并在此基础上对宜兴市的3E系统进行组织调控，使系统从无序转换到有序，达到协同的状态，促进宜兴市产业结构的进一步优化，具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本研究旨在通过对宜兴市3E系统协调发展与产业结构优化研究，明晰宜兴市3E系统发展现状，测度宜兴市3E系统协调发展水平，剖析宜兴市产业结构演化历程，掌握宜兴市产业结构演化规律，构建基于3E系统协调发展的产业结构优化模型，提出宜兴市产业结构优化方案。以期丰富区域3E系统协调发展理论，完善产业结构优化理论，为宜兴市产业结构的调整提供了指导，为探索和制定有利于能源、环境与经济的协调发展与推动产业结构优化战略与政策提供依据。论文主要研究成果与内容如下：（1）分析了宜兴市3E系统协调发展与产业结构发展的现状。通过横向与纵向对比分析，找出了宜兴市3E系统发展中存在的问题和产业结构演进过程中存在的问题。（2）建立了宜兴市3E系统协调发展水平测度与预警模型体系，并对宜兴市3E系统协调发展水平进行了测度与预警分析。设计出宜兴市3E系统协调发展水平测度指标体系，利用主成分分析法测度了宜兴市能源、环境、经济子系统的综合发展水平，，根据各个子系统的综合发展水平变化率，构造两两子系统协调发展测度函数，并在此基础上提出了宜兴市3E系统协调发展水平测度模型，利用该模型对宜兴市近年来3E系统的协调发展水平进行了测度，结果表明：2005-2009年期间宜兴市3E系统协调发展水平不断提高。构建了宜兴市3E系统协调发展水平预警指标体系，运用AHP法确定了预警指标的权重，基于向量夹角的思想构建了宜兴市3E系统协调发展警度测度模型，并利用该模型对宜兴市3E系统协调发展进行了预警分析，结果表明：2005-2009年期间宜兴市3E系统协调发展的警度值呈不断下降趋势。（3）剖析了宜兴市产业结构演进过程及产业结构与3E系统的关联性。通过对改革开放以来宜兴市产业结构演进历程的分析，掌握了宜兴市产业结构演进过程中的阶段性特征和演进规律。构建了基于小波分解的GM(1,1)模型，并利用该模型对宜兴市三次产业的变动趋势进行了预测，为探析宜兴市产业结构演进趋势和建立产业结构优化模型奠定了基础。利用灰色关联分析技术建立了宜兴市三次产业与能源系统、环境系统之间的动态关联分析模型，重点分析了宜兴市三次产业的产值与能源类、环境类主要指标之间的内在关联性。（4）构建了基于3E系统协调发展约束的宜兴市产业结构优化模型，并提出了宜兴市产业结构优化方案。从资源配置最优化、经济效益最大化、3E系统协调发展三个维度出发明确了宜兴市产业结构优化的目标。分析了能源、劳动力、固定资产投资、土地、环境等因素对产业结构的影响，并确立产业结构优化的约束条件。在产业结构优化目标与约束条件分析的基础上，基于灰色动态规划模型建立了宜兴市产业结构优化模型，采用灰色预测模型对规划模型的主要指标值进行了预测分析，应用SPSS软件计算出宜兴市“十二五”期间产业结构的优化方案，优化结果表明：按照3E系统协调发展理念，对宜兴市产业结构进行调整，宜兴市三次产业产值结构可以从2010年的4.5∶55.5∶40调整为2015年的3.85:47.1:49.05。（5）提出了促进宜兴市3E系统协调发展和推动产业结构优化的对策：1）建立高效的节能管理体系，强化能源节约管理；2）加强生态建设与环境保护，提高环保工作水平；3）建立3E系统协调发展的政策保障体系与调控机制，推动3E系统协调发展；4）促进产业结构优化，推动经济转型升级。
[Abstract]:Energy (Energy), environment (Environment), and economic (Economy) composite system (3E system) is closely related to human production and life. The coordinated development of energy, environment and economic system is not only the fundamental guarantee of the human economy and the sustainable development of the society, but also an effective way to alleviate the energy crisis and environmental pollution. Yixing is located in the river. The south end of Jiangsu Province, Shanghai, Ningxia, Hangzhou triangle center, is an economic and Trade Industrial Base.2010 year, Yixing city in the county economic competitiveness ranking ranked ninth in the country, the whole city area of 80 billion. The city of Yixing is the "most suitable for human living, the best environment, the most coordinated development" to promote its transformation and development. But at present, The uncertain factors affecting the economic development of Yixing are increasing, the contradiction between the energy consumption, the environmental protection and the economic growth is becoming increasingly prominent. How to realize the coordinated development of the 3E system in Yixing and the continuous optimization of the industrial structure has become an urgent problem to be solved. Therefore, the coordinated development of the 3E system in Yixing and the optimization of the industrial structure On the basis of this study, the 3E system in Yixing is organized and regulated to make the system from disorder to order, to reach the state of coordination and to promote the further optimization of the industrial structure of Yixing, which has important theoretical and practical significance.
The purpose of this study is to study the coordinated development of the 3E system in Yixing and the optimization of industrial structure, to clarify the status of the development of the 3E system in the city of Yixing, to measure the coordinated development level of the 3E system in the city of Yixing, to analyze the evolution process of the industrial structure in Yixing, to master the evolution law of the industrial structure in Yixing and to construct an optimization model of the industrial structure based on the coordinated development of the 3E system. In order to enrich the theory of the coordinated development of regional 3E system, improve the theory of industrial structure optimization, provide guidance for the adjustment of industrial structure in Yixing, and provide the basis for the exploration and formulation of the coordinated development of energy, environment and economy and the optimization strategy and policy of industrial structure. The results and contents are as follows:
(1) the present situation of the coordinated development of the 3E system and the development of industrial structure in Yixing is analyzed. The problems existing in the development of the 3E system in the Yixing city and the existing problems in the process of the industrial structure evolution are found through the horizontal and vertical comparison and analysis.
(2) the measurement and early warning model system of the coordinated development level of the Yixing 3E system is set up, and the measurement and early warning analysis of the coordinated development level of the 3E system in the city of Yixing is analyzed. The measurement index system of the coordinated development level of the 3E system in Yixing is designed, and the comprehensive development water of the energy, environment and economic subsystem of Yixing is measured by the principal component analysis method. According to the comprehensive development level change rate of each subsystem, the measure function of the coordinated development of the 22 subsystem is constructed, and based on this, the measurement model of the coordinated development level of the Yixing 3E system is put forward. The model is used to measure the coordinated development level of the 3E system in recent years in Yixing. The result shows that Yixing is in the period of the period of 2005-2009 years. The coordinated development level of the city 3E system has been continuously improved. The early warning index system of the coordinated development level of the Yixing 3E system is constructed. The weight of the early warning index is determined by the AHP method. Based on the idea of the vector angle, the coordinated development of the alarm degree of the Yixing city 3E system is constructed, and the model type is used to make the early warning of the coordinated development of the 3E system in Yixing. The results show that the warning degree of coordinated development of 3E system in Yixing has been decreasing for 2005-2009 years.
(3) the evolution process of industrial structure and the relationship between industrial structure and 3E system are analyzed. Through the analysis of the evolution process of the industrial structure of Yixing since the reform and opening up, the stage characteristics and evolution rules of the industrial structure in Yixing are mastered. The GM (1,1) model based on the wavelet decomposition is constructed, and the model is used for the development of the industrial structure. The change trend of the three industries in Yixing is predicted, which lays the foundation for the analysis of the industrial structure evolution trend and the establishment of the industrial structure optimization model in Yixing. The dynamic correlation analysis model between the three industrial and energy systems and the environmental systems in Yixing is established by using the grey relational analysis technology, and the three production in Yixing is emphatically analyzed. The intrinsic correlation between the output value of the industry and the main indicators of energy and environment.
(4) the industrial structure optimization model of Yixing city based on coordinated development constraints is constructed, and the industrial structure optimization scheme of Yixing is put forward. From the three dimensions of the optimization of the resource allocation, the maximum economic benefit and the coordinated development of the 3E system, the objective of the optimization of the industrial structure of Yixing is defined. The energy, labor, and fixed assets investment are analyzed. The influence of the factors such as capital, land and environment on industrial structure and the constraints of industrial structure optimization are established. Based on the analysis of the objective and constraint conditions of the industrial structure optimization, the industrial structure optimization model of Yixing is established based on the grey dynamic programming model. The grey pretest model is used to preview the main index values of the planning model. The SPSS software was used to calculate the industrial structure optimization program of Yixing in 12th Five-Year. The optimization results showed that the industrial structure of Yixing was adjusted according to the coordinated development concept of 3E system. The three industrial output value structure of Yixing could be adjusted from 4.5 to 55.5 to 40 in 2015 to 3.85:47.1:49.05. in 2015.
(5) the countermeasures are put forward to promote the coordinated development of the 3E system in Yixing and promote the optimization of the industrial structure. 1) establishing efficient energy saving management system, strengthening energy conservation management; 2) strengthening the ecological construction and environmental protection, improving the environmental protection work level; 3) establishing the policy guarantee system and regulation mechanism for the coordinated development of the 3E system, and promoting the coordination of the 3E system. Development; 4) promote industrial structure optimization and promote economic transformation and upgrading.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F426.2;X22

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