中国城乡消费差距的拐点判定及其增长效应
发布时间：2018-08-08 16:59
【摘要】：本文利用1992—2012年我国29个省区的面板数据,采用固定效应模型实证研究了城市化对城乡消费差距的影响,以及城乡消费差距对经济增长的作用。结果显示:城市化是引致城乡消费差距变动的核心变量,且城市化导致中国的城乡消费差距呈现出先增后减的"倒U型"趋势,"倒U型"拐点大致发生在2003年,东部地区城乡消费差距的"倒U型"趋势显著于中西部地区。20世纪90年代初期以来,我国的城乡消费差距与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定关系,城乡消费差距拉大对经济增长产生了负面效应,且这种负面效应在东部地区要比中西部地区表现得更为显著。可见,我国的城市化、城乡消费差距和经济增长之间存在着依次影响的关系,且这种影响关系具有时段差异性和区域异质性。
[Abstract]:Using the panel data of 29 provinces and regions from 1992 to 2012, this paper empirically studies the effect of urbanization on the urban-rural consumption gap and the effect of urban-rural consumption gap on economic growth by using fixed effect model. The results show that urbanization is the core variable leading to the change of the urban-rural consumption gap, and the urban-rural consumption gap in China shows a trend of "inverted U type" which increases first and then decreases. The turning point of "inverted U-type" occurred roughly in 2003. The trend of "inverted U type" of the urban-rural consumption gap in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions since the early 1990s. There is a long-term stable relationship between the urban-rural consumption gap and economic growth in China. The widening of urban-rural consumption gap has a negative effect on economic growth, and this negative effect is more obvious in the eastern region than in the central and western regions. It can be seen that the relationship among urbanization, urban-rural consumption gap and economic growth has a sequential impact, and this relationship has time difference and regional heterogeneity.
【作者单位】： 复旦大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“我国城乡要素交换关系完善的理论研究与实证分析”(12CJL039) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目“中国城乡二元经济结构转化的政治经济学”(NCET-11-0105) 上海市哲学社会科学规划项目“转型发展背景下上海化解新二元结构问题研究”(2012FJL001)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F126.1
[Abstract]:Using the panel data of 29 provinces and regions from 1992 to 2012, this paper empirically studies the effect of urbanization on the urban-rural consumption gap and the effect of urban-rural consumption gap on economic growth by using fixed effect model. The results show that urbanization is the core variable leading to the change of the urban-rural consumption gap, and the urban-rural consumption gap in China shows a trend of "inverted U type" which increases first and then decreases. The turning point of "inverted U-type" occurred roughly in 2003. The trend of "inverted U type" of the urban-rural consumption gap in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions since the early 1990s. There is a long-term stable relationship between the urban-rural consumption gap and economic growth in China. The widening of urban-rural consumption gap has a negative effect on economic growth, and this negative effect is more obvious in the eastern region than in the central and western regions. It can be seen that the relationship among urbanization, urban-rural consumption gap and economic growth has a sequential impact, and this relationship has time difference and regional heterogeneity.
【作者单位】： 复旦大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“我国城乡要素交换关系完善的理论研究与实证分析”(12CJL039) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目“中国城乡二元经济结构转化的政治经济学”(NCET-11-0105) 上海市哲学社会科学规划项目“转型发展背景下上海化解新二元结构问题研究”(2012FJL001)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F126.1
【共引文献】
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