贸易开放度影响中国经济增长问题的研究
发布时间：2018-08-11 12:55
【摘要】：贸易开放与经济增长的关系一直是经济学家的重点研究领域之一,经济学者们从多个角度运用不同的方法和数据等对此进行了深入的理论探讨和实证分析。其中从贸易开放度影响经济增长的角度进行的分析就是一个重要的切入点。自1978年改革开放以来,中国的对外贸易和经济发展都取得了突出的进展,数据显示2012年中国国内生产总值达到519322亿元,折合82502.41亿美元,进出口贸易总额为38667.6亿美元,而与此鲜明的对比是1978年两项指标仅分别为3645.2亿元和206.4亿美元。三十余年来中国的经济一直维持了世所瞩目的高速增长,1979至2012年年均增速为9.8%,而同时期中国贸易进出口额的增长更为突出,年均增长率达到了13.23%,显然在贸易开放与经济增长间应该存在着密切的关联。本文正是在此背景下探寻贸易开放度与我国经济增长间的关系,以期找到贸易开放度作用于经济增长的长期机制。 本文首先回顾了相关的理论,包括贸易开放及经济增长理论,然后对国内外有关贸易开放度指标确定的文献进行了梳理,在此基础上有针对性的选择一个包括了服务贸易开放度和货物贸易开放度的指标,文章还对全球网络化生产背景下贸易影响经济增长机制的新特点进行了论述,为文章的实证分析提供理论说明。其次文章利用统计数据描绘了1982-2011年间我国经济增长、贸易开放度的宏观情况,并对贸易开放度的内部结构进行了解释说明。然后文章进入到计量分析部分,先对各时间变量序列进行单位根检验,考察变量的平稳性,发现变量均为同阶单整后,接着运用Johansen检验进行协整分析,具体的给出贸易开放度与经济增长之间的长期均衡关系式并给出了经济意义解读,然后进行格兰杰因果检验,说明贸易开放度与经济增长间的单向或者双向格兰杰因果关系,最后利用脉冲响应函数图对贸易开放度影响经济增长的动态情况进行分析,发现贸易开放度对经济增长的冲击作用存在一定的波动性。文章又深入的考察了货物贸易开放度和服务贸易开放度对经济增长的计量分析。本文最后提出优化外贸结构,注重推进服务贸易的开放及发展,注重加强自主创新能力的建设等促进经济增长的具体措施和建议。
[Abstract]:The relationship between trade opening and economic growth has always been one of the key research fields of economists, which has been deeply discussed and empirically analyzed by economists from many angles using different methods and data. The analysis of the influence of trade openness on economic growth is an important entry point. Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's foreign trade and economic development have made remarkable progress. Data show that in 2012, China's GDP reached 51.9322 trillion yuan, equivalent to 8.250241 trillion US dollars, and the total import and export trade amounted to 3.86676 trillion US dollars. By contrast, in 1978 the two indicators were only $364.52 billion and $20.64 billion, respectively. For more than 30 years, China's economy has maintained a remarkable high growth rate. The average annual growth rate between 1979 and 2012 was 9.8%, and the growth of China's trade, import and export volume during the same period was even more prominent. With an annual growth rate of 13.23, it is clear that there should be a close relationship between trade openness and economic growth. In this context, this paper explores the relationship between trade openness and China's economic growth in order to find out the long-term mechanism of trade openness acting on economic growth. This paper first reviews the relevant theories, including trade opening and economic growth theory, and then reviews the domestic and foreign literature on the determination of trade openness index. On the basis of this, we choose a new index which includes the open degree of trade in services and open degree of trade in goods. The paper also discusses the new characteristics of trade affecting economic growth mechanism under the background of global networked production. To provide theoretical explanation for the empirical analysis of the article. Secondly, using statistical data, this paper describes the macro situation of China's economic growth and trade openness from 1982 to 2011, and explains the internal structure of trade openness. Then the article enters the econometric analysis part, first carries on the unit root test to each time variable sequence, inspects the variable stationarity, discovers the variable all is the same order single integral, then uses the Johansen test to carry on the cointegration analysis. The long-term equilibrium relationship between trade openness and economic growth is given, and the interpretation of economic significance is given. Then Granger causality test is carried out to illustrate the one-way or two-way Granger causality between trade openness and economic growth. Finally, the impulse response function diagram is used to analyze the dynamic situation of trade openness affecting economic growth, and it is found that the impact of trade openness on economic growth has some volatility. The article also investigates the econometric analysis of the open degree of goods trade and service trade on economic growth. Finally, this paper puts forward some concrete measures and suggestions to promote economic growth, such as optimizing the structure of foreign trade, promoting the opening and development of service trade, and strengthening the construction of independent innovation ability.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1;F752.0
本文编号：2177051
[Abstract]:The relationship between trade opening and economic growth has always been one of the key research fields of economists, which has been deeply discussed and empirically analyzed by economists from many angles using different methods and data. The analysis of the influence of trade openness on economic growth is an important entry point. Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's foreign trade and economic development have made remarkable progress. Data show that in 2012, China's GDP reached 51.9322 trillion yuan, equivalent to 8.250241 trillion US dollars, and the total import and export trade amounted to 3.86676 trillion US dollars. By contrast, in 1978 the two indicators were only $364.52 billion and $20.64 billion, respectively. For more than 30 years, China's economy has maintained a remarkable high growth rate. The average annual growth rate between 1979 and 2012 was 9.8%, and the growth of China's trade, import and export volume during the same period was even more prominent. With an annual growth rate of 13.23, it is clear that there should be a close relationship between trade openness and economic growth. In this context, this paper explores the relationship between trade openness and China's economic growth in order to find out the long-term mechanism of trade openness acting on economic growth. This paper first reviews the relevant theories, including trade opening and economic growth theory, and then reviews the domestic and foreign literature on the determination of trade openness index. On the basis of this, we choose a new index which includes the open degree of trade in services and open degree of trade in goods. The paper also discusses the new characteristics of trade affecting economic growth mechanism under the background of global networked production. To provide theoretical explanation for the empirical analysis of the article. Secondly, using statistical data, this paper describes the macro situation of China's economic growth and trade openness from 1982 to 2011, and explains the internal structure of trade openness. Then the article enters the econometric analysis part, first carries on the unit root test to each time variable sequence, inspects the variable stationarity, discovers the variable all is the same order single integral, then uses the Johansen test to carry on the cointegration analysis. The long-term equilibrium relationship between trade openness and economic growth is given, and the interpretation of economic significance is given. Then Granger causality test is carried out to illustrate the one-way or two-way Granger causality between trade openness and economic growth. Finally, the impulse response function diagram is used to analyze the dynamic situation of trade openness affecting economic growth, and it is found that the impact of trade openness on economic growth has some volatility. The article also investigates the econometric analysis of the open degree of goods trade and service trade on economic growth. Finally, this paper puts forward some concrete measures and suggestions to promote economic growth, such as optimizing the structure of foreign trade, promoting the opening and development of service trade, and strengthening the construction of independent innovation ability.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1;F752.0
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