中国地区银行业发展与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-08-11 16:56

【摘要】：由于银行业在中国整个国民经济体系当中具有的重要地位；基于最近三十年以来,我国银行业体系的历史沿革；更是因为最近时期关于垄断行业效率、中小企业贷款难、利率自由化和直接融资市场深化改革等问题的备受关注,本文将焦点放在我国地区银行业发展与经济增长的关系上。考察银行业的发展现状不能只是停留在其相关的会计或经营指标上,而应该从更宏观的角度来考量。我们在关注中国银行业的改革与发展历程时,会禁不住思考：我国银行业的发展对于我国经济的发展到底是产生了怎样的效应?银行业自身的哪一些特征可以显著的影响经济的发展?对于处于不同经济发展水平的地区而言,这样的影响是否有差别?怎样才能让银行业更好的服务于整个的国民经济?本研究试图为以上的问题寻找合理的解答。本文在梳理相关理论的基础上,具体地分析了我国银行业的真实发展状态,之后运用面板数据模型进行实证研究,在研究结论的基础上进行规范性研究。本文一共分为六个部分,第一部分简单的介绍了本研究的背景,梳理了我国银行业的发展过程,并具体的分析了我国目前的金融结构与银行业结构。基于中国人民银行和中国银行业监督管理委员会以及《中华人民共和国银行业监督管理法》的划分标准,本部分将文章所研究的“银行业”的具体范围做了明确的划分：银行业包括政策性银行及国家开发银行、大型商业银行、股份制商业银行、城市商业银行、城市信用社、农村合作金融机构、邮政储蓄银行、外资银行等。这是一个较广义的“银行业”标准。在说明研究目的与研究方向的前提下,第一部分还清晰地介绍了文章的行文框架、介绍了文章的相关理论与研究方法。文章的第二部分是介绍了相关的文献综述。由于银行业部门是金融部门的最重要组成部分之一,甚至在较长的一段历史时期中,银行业一直是金融部门的主体。因而研究银行业的发展与经济增长的关系,首先要参照的就是金融发展的相关研究成果。目前存在的研究成果中,许多学者都有尝试构造金融发展指数来反映金融发展水平,这些指数体系一般都是先建立一个理论的框架与逻辑,划分几个大的模块然后再在每个模块中寻找可量化的细分指标,然后综合。本文罗列且比较了其中较有代表性的几个体系。之后文章开始探讨金融发展与经济增长的关系。对于金融发展与经济增长的研究,是随着西方银行业的出现与逐步发展而开始兴起的,本文将这些研究成果分为三个时期：前期研究、逐渐成熟期和进一步拓展。由于国内相关研究的独特价值和极强的运用性,本文将这些研究单独放在一个模块做介绍。关于银行业发展与经济发展关系的研究可以说是属于金融发展理论的一个分支,由于银行业是金融部门的重要组成部分,理论上,银行业发展理论也包括在传统的金融发展理论当中。但是,由于银行业在金融体系中的特点与特殊地位,专门针对银行业发展的研究也屡有出现,这些研究对本文后续分析有重要作用,所以本文做了详细介绍。文章的第三部分是尝试在分析银行业的主要活动、分析其功能的基础上分析银行业对经济体系产生作用的机理。银行业机构的主要功能包括：资产转化、形成规模经济和降低风险。理论上银行业机构对整个经济体的作用应该包括直接和间接两个方面。首先,作为经济体的重要组成部分,当银行业机构的产值增加时就会直接的使经济总量达到增长的效果。其次,由于银行业的功能,银行业对储蓄积累、资金分配、交易方便性和风险管理等方面的影响也会间接地影响经济增长的速度。要做到促进经济增长,前提是银行业机构都能够有效的运行,是一种理想的状态,中国目前的现实状态是否达到这样的情况仍需考察。第四部分重点研究我国银行业目前的发展状态和特点,为了做更细致的研究,文章也具体地探讨了我国银行业发展的主要阶段。现状分析部分运用的是近年中国人民银行和中国银行业监督管理委员会发布的我国银行业机构的运营数据,具体地分析了我国银行业机构的结构、运营规模、稳定性和盈利性等。文章的第五部分结合我国地方银行业发展的具体情况,运用了面板数据,在理论分析的基础上,建立了银行业规模指标、结构指标及控制变量与经济增长指标的数学模型。最后的结果为不变截距固定效应模型,模型拟合效果优良。最后的结论与大部分的同类研究相似,即目前我国银行业规模的扩张不利于经济增长,银行业集中度增加也会抑制经济的增长。文章最后部分在基于前面分析的基础上,试图对目前我国银行业的状况做出评述并相对应的提出了意见与建议。
[Abstract]:As the banking industry plays an important role in China's national economic system, based on the historical evolution of the banking system in the last 30 years, and because of the recent concerns about the efficiency of monopoly industries, the difficulty of loans for small and medium-sized enterprises, the liberalization of interest rates and the deepening reform of the direct financing market, this paper will The focus is on the relationship between the development of China's regional banking industry and economic growth. The current situation of banking development should be considered from a more macroscopic point of view rather than just its relevant accounting or operating indicators. What effect does the banking industry have on China's economic development? Which characteristics of the banking industry itself can significantly affect the economic development? Is there any difference in the impact for regions at different levels of economic development? How can the banking industry better serve the national economy as a whole? This study attempts to This paper analyzes the real development of China's banking industry on the basis of combing relevant theories, and then uses panel data model to conduct empirical research and normative research on the basis of research conclusions.
This paper is divided into six parts. The first part briefly introduces the background of this study, combs the development process of China's banking industry, and specifically analyzes the current financial structure and banking structure of China. This part makes a clear division of the specific scope of the banking industry: the banking industry includes policy banks and State Development banks, large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, urban commercial banks, urban credit cooperatives, rural cooperative financial institutions, postal savings banks, foreign banks, etc. A broader "banking" standard. On the premise of explaining the purpose and direction of the study, the first part also clearly introduces the framework of the article, introduces the relevant theory and research methods.
The second part of the article introduces the relevant literature review. As the banking sector is one of the most important parts of the financial sector, and even in a long historical period, the banking sector has been the main body of the financial sector. Among the existing research results, many scholars have attempted to construct financial development index to reflect the level of financial development. These index systems generally establish a theoretical framework and logic, divide into several large modules and then find quantifiable sub-indicators in each module, and then synthesize. After that, the paper begins to discuss the relationship between financial development and economic growth. The research on financial development and economic growth began to rise with the emergence and gradual development of the western banking industry. Because of the unique value and strong applicability of domestic related research, this paper introduces these studies in a single module. The research on the relationship between banking development and economic development can be said to belong to a branch of financial development theory, because banking is an important part of the financial sector, in theory. The theory of banking development is also included in the traditional theory of financial development. However, due to the characteristics and special status of banking in the financial system, research on banking development has also appeared frequently. These studies have an important role in the follow-up analysis of this paper, so this paper makes a detailed introduction.
The third part of the article tries to analyze the main activities of the banking industry and the mechanism of the banking industry's impact on the economic system on the basis of its functions. First of all, as an important part of the economy, when the output value of the banking institutions increases, the total economic growth will be achieved directly. Secondly, because of the banking function, the banking industry on savings accumulation, capital distribution, transaction convenience and risk management and other aspects of the impact of indirect impact on the economy. The speed of growth. To promote economic growth, the premise is that the banking sector can operate effectively, is an ideal state, China's current reality is still to be investigated.
The fourth part focuses on the current development status and characteristics of China's banking industry, in order to do more detailed research, the article also specifically discusses the main stages of China's banking industry development. The structure, operation scale, stability and profitability of China's banking institutions are analyzed concretely.
In the fifth part of this paper, we use panel data to analyze the development of local banking industry in China. On the basis of theoretical analysis, we establish the mathematical model of scale index, structure index, control variable and economic growth index of banking industry. The conclusion is similar to most similar studies, that is, the expansion of banking scale is not conducive to economic growth, and the increase of banking concentration will also inhibit economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1;F832.3;F224

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