我国区域间消费与经济增长差异性实证研究
发布时间：2018-08-12 11:21
【摘要】：近年来，随着依靠投资驱动、出口贸易拉动经济增长模式的不可持续，消费作为拉动经济增长的巨大动力，自然是研究经济增长的重要方向。同时由于我国各区域的经济发展不平衡，尤其是东、中、西部地区经济差异非常显著。这对我国经济快速的发展和社会的稳定有不利的影响，所以研究消费对我国东、中、西部经济影响的差异，以及东、中、西部消费不同的原因，将有助于使各地区结合自身特点进行有针对性的宏观调控，更好地科学引导消费、优化经济结构，解决我国各区域经济发展不平衡的问题。众多学者研究消费与经济增长关系是针对全国整体状况进行分析，区域差异性研究较少，所采用的方法多为单方程分析法、结构性联立方程法以及向量自回归分析法等，本文采用结构方程模型方法，从整体和区域分别来研究消费与经济增长关系，是一种新方法的尝试，进一步完善了消费与经济增长关系的理论，丰富了相关的实证研究方法。 本文理论与实践相结合，从以下三个不同方面来建立消费与经济增长关系的结构方程模型，首先利用1992-2010年全国29个省（市，自治区）的省级面板数据，构建了消费与经济增长关系的结构方程模型，运用极大似然估计方法对其进行实证分析。模型分析结果表明：消费和经济增长之间的路径系数都为正值，说明消费对经济增长有明显的促进作用，给出了不同消费对经济增长促进的不同程度。其次分别建立东、中、西部消费与经济增长关系的结构方程模型，经过模型分析与检验，直接或间接得出各区域消费对经济增长具有促进作用的结论，将三个模型进行对比，分析不同区域同种消费对经济增长促进作用的差异性，找出产生这种差异性的原因。最后以中部地区为代表建立中部城乡居民消费与经济增长关系的结构方程模型，，经过模型分析与检验，得出城乡居民消费对经济增长作用的差异程度，并分析产生差异的原因。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of investment and the unsustainable export trade, consumption, as a huge driving force of economic growth, is naturally an important direction in the research of economic growth. At the same time, because of the imbalance of economic development in different regions of China, especially in the east, middle and west regions, the economic differences are very significant. This has a negative impact on the rapid economic development and social stability of our country, so we study the differences in the economic impact of consumption on the east, middle and west of China, and the reasons for the differences in consumption in the east, the middle and the west. It will be helpful for all regions to carry out targeted macro-control according to their own characteristics, to guide consumption scientifically, to optimize economic structure and to solve the problem of unbalanced economic development in various regions of our country. Many scholars study the relationship between consumption and economic growth is to analyze the overall situation of the country, regional differences are less, most of the methods used are single equation analysis, structural simultaneous equation method and vector autoregressive analysis, etc. This paper uses the structural equation model method to study the relationship between consumption and economic growth from the whole and the region respectively. It is a new method to further improve the theory of the relationship between consumption and economic growth and enrich the relevant empirical research methods. Combining theory with practice, this paper establishes the structural equation model of the relationship between consumption and economic growth from the following three different aspects. Firstly, we use the provincial panel data of 29 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) from 1992 to 2010. The structural equation model of the relationship between consumption and economic growth is constructed, and the empirical analysis is carried out by using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The results of the model analysis show that the path coefficients between consumption and economic growth are both positive, which indicates that consumption has an obvious promoting effect on economic growth, and gives different degrees of different consumption to promote economic growth. Secondly, the structural equation models of the relationship between consumption and economic growth in the east, middle and west regions are established respectively. Through model analysis and test, the conclusion that consumption in various regions can promote economic growth is drawn directly or indirectly, and the three models are compared. This paper analyzes the differences of the same kind of consumption to promote economic growth in different regions and finds out the reasons for the differences. Finally, the structural equation model of the relationship between urban and rural residents' consumption and economic growth in central China is established. Through the analysis and test of the model, the degree of difference between urban and rural residents' consumption on economic growth is obtained, and the reasons for the difference are analyzed.
【学位授予单位】：河南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F126.1;F224
本文编号：2178900
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of investment and the unsustainable export trade, consumption, as a huge driving force of economic growth, is naturally an important direction in the research of economic growth. At the same time, because of the imbalance of economic development in different regions of China, especially in the east, middle and west regions, the economic differences are very significant. This has a negative impact on the rapid economic development and social stability of our country, so we study the differences in the economic impact of consumption on the east, middle and west of China, and the reasons for the differences in consumption in the east, the middle and the west. It will be helpful for all regions to carry out targeted macro-control according to their own characteristics, to guide consumption scientifically, to optimize economic structure and to solve the problem of unbalanced economic development in various regions of our country. Many scholars study the relationship between consumption and economic growth is to analyze the overall situation of the country, regional differences are less, most of the methods used are single equation analysis, structural simultaneous equation method and vector autoregressive analysis, etc. This paper uses the structural equation model method to study the relationship between consumption and economic growth from the whole and the region respectively. It is a new method to further improve the theory of the relationship between consumption and economic growth and enrich the relevant empirical research methods. Combining theory with practice, this paper establishes the structural equation model of the relationship between consumption and economic growth from the following three different aspects. Firstly, we use the provincial panel data of 29 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) from 1992 to 2010. The structural equation model of the relationship between consumption and economic growth is constructed, and the empirical analysis is carried out by using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The results of the model analysis show that the path coefficients between consumption and economic growth are both positive, which indicates that consumption has an obvious promoting effect on economic growth, and gives different degrees of different consumption to promote economic growth. Secondly, the structural equation models of the relationship between consumption and economic growth in the east, middle and west regions are established respectively. Through model analysis and test, the conclusion that consumption in various regions can promote economic growth is drawn directly or indirectly, and the three models are compared. This paper analyzes the differences of the same kind of consumption to promote economic growth in different regions and finds out the reasons for the differences. Finally, the structural equation model of the relationship between urban and rural residents' consumption and economic growth in central China is established. Through the analysis and test of the model, the degree of difference between urban and rural residents' consumption on economic growth is obtained, and the reasons for the difference are analyzed.
【学位授予单位】：河南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F126.1;F224
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