东亚生产网络的形成与深化：理论和实证研究

发布时间：2018-08-27 16:15

【摘要】：2020世纪60年代侕90年代,“雁阵模式”在东亚得到了充分的验证,并创造出所谓“东亚奇迹”。20世纪90年代以来,随着技术水平的提高与运输成本的下降,国际分工不断深化,逐渐由产业间分工向产业内以及产品内分工发展。仡在东亚,原有的“雁阵模式”已经改变,各经济体之间的经贸关系日益紧密,分‘工与贸易的区域化特征不断增强,形成了基于产品内分工的区域性生产网络。相在此背景下,本文从产品内分工理论出发,对东亚区域性生产网络的形成与深化进行分析；并基于东亚各经济体的零部件贸易数据,采用面板引力模型方法对对理论模型进行实证检验。本本文第一章为导论部分,介绍绍文章研究背景、文献综述和分析框架等。第：二章对基于比较优势理论、新贸易理论以及不完全契约理论的产品内分工理论进进行综述研究。第三章在Feenstra(2003)连续中间产品的分工模型基础上对东亚生产网络的形成与深化进行理论分析。首先,各国按照比较优势参与产品内分工,其在生产网络中所处技术等级由其比较优势决定。其次,在“华盛顿苹果效应”假设条件下,由地理距离产生的贸易成本与中间产品的技术等级有关。具体表现为：技术等级越低的中间产品对距离变动越敏感。区域性生产网络更有助于促进发展中国家参与产品内分工,而发展中国家的邻近也促进了东亚生产网络的形成。再次,“资本知识复合投入品”的跨境流动会对生产网络中的产品内分工格局产生影响。其中,发达国家将通过“资本知识复合投入品”流出代替对发展中国家的中间产品出口；对于发展中国家而言,“资本知识复合投入品”的流入能够减少其对来自发达国家的高技术等级中间产品的进口依赖程度,使其在生产网络中所处的技术等级得到提升,并且使得距离因素对其参与产品内分工的限制作用有所降低。最后,本文理论研究认为,东亚生产网络的区位优协来自于低技术等级之间的邻近；但这一区位优势将随着资本知识复合投入品的跨境流动而被削弱。本文第四章对东亚生产网络中的商品贸易、FDI和服务贸易等进行描述性统计分析。商品贸易方面,东亚的全球化特征与区域化特征并存。各经济体都已经基本实现从产业间向产业内和产品内分工的转变,零部件贸易的大量增长表现出东亚地区生产网络化程度的提高。商品贸易以外,东亚在FDI和服务贸易等方面也有显著增长。东亚地区正逐渐摆脱对日本投资的依赖性,NIES成为区域内重要的FDI来源。服务贸易和生产者服务贸易方面,NIES同样也是东亚地区最主要的参与者。此外,东亚尤其是发展中国家的服务贸易壁垒仍然很高,服务贸易和生产者服务贸易的主要制约因素就来自于发展中国家对于某些行业中的政策限制。第五章基于零部件贸易数据,对于地理区位因素、FDI和生产者服务贸易等因素对东亚生产网络的影响进行计量检验。文章采用面板引力模型的实证方法,以2000-2009年东亚经济体的零部件贸易数据对东亚区域性生产网络的分工和贸易模式进行检验。首先,在东亚生产网络中,零部件贸易的距离弹性在国家之间有所差异。总体而言,收入水平较高的国家零部件进口的距离弹性大于出口,收入水平较低的国家零部件出口的距离弹性则大于进口。其次,距离弹性差异的引力模型回归结果进一步证明了零部件贸易的“华盛顿苹果效应”：零部件技术等级越低,其在贸易过程中对距离变动表现的越为敏感。东亚生产网络的区域性使得距离对零部件贸易的阻碍作用总体上有所降低,但“华盛顿苹果效应”仍然存在。再次,作为“资本知识复合投入品”跨境流动的现实代表,FDI和生产者服务贸易总体上替代了发达国家的零部件出口,并促进了发展中国家的零部件出口。从技术结构来看,FDI和生产者服务贸易增加了发达国家对低技术等级零部件的进口,并减少了发展中国家对高技术等级零部件的进口。最后,对中国的研究结果还表明,FDI和生产者服务贸易的增加使中国的零部件出口更加趋向全球化,而区域化特征有所减弱。由此证明FDI和生产者服务贸易的增加将使发展中国家在生产网络中所处技术等级得到提升,进而使得其参与产品内分工的空间范围得到扩展。第六章在全文分析基础上对文章进行总结。低技术等级之间的邻近是推动东亚生产网络形成的重要动因和区位优势。然而,随着生产网络中分工关系的深化,FDI和生产者服务贸易的增加,这种优势将逐渐减弱。本文研究认为未来东亚生产网络势必在空间范围上更为开放,并通过商品贸易、服务贸易和投资全面一体化的实现获取新的区位优势。
[Abstract]:In the 1960s and 1990s, the "wild goose array model" was fully verified in East Asia and created the so-called "East Asian miracle". Since the 1990s, with the improvement of technical level and the decrease of transportation costs, the international division of labor has been deepened, gradually from the inter-industry division of labor to the intra-industry and intra-product division of labor. Some "wild goose array model" has changed, the economic and trade relations among the economies have become increasingly close, and the regional characteristics of division of labor and trade have been strengthened, forming a regional production network based on intra-product division of labor. Based on the trade data of parts and components of East Asian economies, the theoretical model is tested by the panel gravity model.
Chapter 1 is the introduction, which introduces the research background, literature review and analysis framework. Chapter 2 reviews the theory of intra-product division of labor based on comparative advantage theory, new trade theory and incomplete contract theory. The formation and deepening of production networks are theoretically analyzed. Firstly, countries participate in intra-product division of labor according to their comparative advantages, and their technological level in production networks is determined by their comparative advantages. Secondly, under the assumption of "Washington apple effect", the trade cost caused by geographical distance is related to the technological level of intermediate products. Regional production networks are more conducive to promoting the participation of developing countries in intra-product division of labor, and the proximity of developing countries also contributes to the formation of East Asian production networks. Thirdly, cross-border flows of "capital and knowledge compound inputs" will affect products in production networks. The pattern of internal division of labor has an impact. Developed countries will replace the export of intermediate products to developing countries by the outflow of capital and knowledge compound inputs. For developing countries, the inflow of capital and knowledge compound inputs can reduce their dependence on imports of high-tech intermediate products from developed countries. Finally, this paper argues that the location advantage of the East Asian production network comes from the proximity between the low-tech grades, but this location advantage will be invested with the combination of capital and knowledge. The cross-border movement of goods is weakened.
In the aspect of commodity trade, globalization and regionalization coexist in East Asia. All economies have basically realized the transformation from inter-industry to intra-industry and intra-product division of labor. The growth of spare parts trade shows the East. In addition to commodity trade, East Asia has also witnessed significant growth in FDI and trade in services. East Asia is gradually getting rid of its dependence on Japanese investment, and NIES has become an important source of FDI in the region. In addition, barriers to trade in services in East Asia, especially in developing countries, remain high, and the main constraints on trade in services and producer services come from policy constraints imposed by developing countries on certain sectors.
In the fifth chapter, based on the data of spare parts trade, this paper examines the impact of geographical location, FDI and producer service trade on East Asian production network. First of all, the distance elasticity of parts trade varies among countries in East Asian production networks. Generally speaking, the distance elasticity of parts imported by countries with higher income level is greater than that of exports, while that of parts exported by countries with lower income level is greater than that of imports. Secondly, the gravity model with different distance elasticity is used. T-regression results further prove the Washington Apple effect of parts trade: the lower the technical level of parts, the more sensitive they are to the change of distance in the trade process. Thirdly, FDI and producer services trade, as the realistic representatives of cross-border flows of capital and knowledge, have generally replaced parts exports of developed countries and promoted parts exports of developing countries. Finally, the results of China's research show that the increase of FDI and producer services trade makes China's export of parts more globalized and the regionalization characteristics weakened. This proves that the increase of FDI and producer services trade will lead to development. China's technology level in the production network has been upgraded, thus expanding the scope of its participation in intra-product division of labor.
Chapter 6 summarizes the article on the basis of full-text analysis. The proximity between low-tech grades is an important driving force and location advantage to promote the formation of East Asian production network. However, with the deepening of the division of labor in the production network, FDI and producer service trade increase, this advantage will gradually weaken. The production network is bound to be more open in the spatial scope, and gain new geographical advantages through the realization of comprehensive integration of commodity trade, service trade and investment.
【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F131

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