中国全要素生产率的测算与分析
发布时间：2018-09-03 12:52
【摘要】：自改革开放以来,中国的经济发展势头迅猛,取得了令人瞩目的成就。世界银行分析报告指出,中国经济的增长速度之快以及持续时间之长都是在世界经济的历史长河中很少见的。但是中国经济的增长到底是一种什么方式的高增长,增长能否持续,这些都需要进行更加深入的研究。全要素生产率有助于我们解决这些问题。他可以确定各要素对经济增长的贡献度,进而识别经济的增长到底是投入型增长还是效率型增长,从而判定经济增长的可持续性。我们还可以通过各要素投入对经济增长的贡献度与全要素生产率增长对经济增长的贡献度进行比较,进一步确定我国的经济政策是应该以增加总需求为先,还是应该以促进技术进步和调节产业结构为主。所以,从这个层面上来说,全要生产率的估算对于经济的发展具有极为重要的意义。 目前,全要素生产率的测算方法可以分为两大类：第一类,参数方法。主要包括,索洛余值法,拓展的索洛余值法,随机前沿生产函数法(SFA)等。第二类,非参数方法。主要包括指数法,数据包络分析法(DEA)等。二者的主要区别在于是否需要具体的生产函数形式。本文将采用OECD对发达国家所建议的索洛余值法,因为此方法是建立在严格的经济理论和数理推导的基础之上,不存在逻辑性错误。 虽说索洛余值法是一种比较普遍采用的做法,但是学者们在采用此方法时仍然会产生两个比较有争议性的问题,第一个就是劳动投入量的测算。我们在核算劳动投入的时候,直接使用就业人数这一概念来作为劳动投入。但是严格意义上来说,就业人数只是简单地反映了劳动投入的数量上的变化,它并不能够反应劳动投入的质量的变化。OECD国家建议使用劳动工时这一概念对劳动投入进行质量上的调整,但是由于我国缺乏相关的统计数据,所以根本没办法采用此方法来核算劳动投入。在实证研究中,采用劳动者人数这一概念占绝大多数,所以本文也采用此指标。另一个比较具有争议性的问题是资本投入量的测算。我们采用2004年出版的《资本测算手册—关于资本存量、固定资本消耗及资本服务测算》一书中所建议的一体化的PIM法来测算资本服务量进行,而不是简单地使用固定资本存量或者固定资本投资额这一概念来进行全要素生产率的测算。 本文对全要素生产率的测算主要包括以下几点内容： 第一部分主要是阐明了本文的选题背景和意义。全要素生产率的测算对于分析经济增长的源泉以及国家制定相关经济政策都具有极为重要的参考价值。 第二部分主要对全要素生产率的研究方法进行了简单评述。此部分我们将目前TFP的研究方法分为参数方法和非参数方法两大类,并对每一种研究方法的相关文献进行了评述。本文最终选取索洛余值法,此方法也是目前为止使用最为广泛的一种估算方法。 第三部分我们主要对资本投入的测量方法进行了详细的阐述。在进行全要素生产率的测量时,总产出以及劳动投入的数据都属于比较基础的数据,很容易就可以获得,唯一比较有难度的就是资本投入量的测量。所以在这一部分,我们将依据OECD编制的资本测算手册,具体的讲述一体化的PIM法,包括服务寿命、年龄价格函数、退出函数、使用者成本、Tornqvist指数加权等概念,并且对它们之间的逻辑关系以及怎么运用他们得到资本服务物量指数都进行了较为清晰明了的说明。 第四部分主要是关于劳动及产出数据的选择和处理,并对要素产出弹性进行了估算。劳动投入数据采用的是就业人员数,数据来自历年的《中国统计年鉴》,总产出数据同样来自《中国统计年鉴》,并且利用国内生产总值价格指数将历年的国内成产总值转化成以1978年价格为不变价的国内生产总值。并且,我们份额法对要素产出弹性进行了估算。 第五部分主要讲述了资本服务量的估算过程和结果。在进行资本投入量的估算时,首先将资产分为三类,并确定各类资产的服务寿命。年龄—效率函数我们选择双曲模式,退出函数选择的是钟形退出函数中的正态分布函数。在基期资本存量选择上,我们直接采用其他学者的计算结果,结合历年固定资本形成总额数据,我们就可以通过PIM法估算出我国的资本投入量,并最终得到我们所需要的资本服务物量指数。 第六部分主要讲述了基于索洛余值法的全要素生产率的计算及对估算结果的分析。在得到上述数据以后,我们用总产出的增长率减去劳动投入增长率和资本投入增长率与各自所对应的产出弹性的乘积,即可得到全要素生产率的增长类率。对估算结果的分析主要着眼于以下三个方面：全要素生产率增长率的波动性分析、全要素生产率的增长与经济增长之间的关系分析、通过估算结果对我国经济增长方式的判断分析。得出的结论是：我国目前的经济增长方式属于要素投入(尤其是资本投入)与全要素生产率双推动型。 第七部分主要讲述了提高全要素生产率的措施和意见。主要包括以下几种措施：加强自主创新意识及政策扶持力度、提高资源配置效率、继续深化市场经济体制改革、注重劳动力质量的培养落实人才强国战略。这些措施和意见将逐渐促进我国经济增长方式的转变以及产业结构的优化,全面提升全要素生产率,并最终使我国的经济朝着可持续发展的道路前进。 在文章的最后一部分,我们集中总结了一下本文存在的不足以及后续的研究展望。存在的不足主要表现在资本和劳动投入数据的处理以及某些比较严格的假定方面,比如规模收益不变的假定和完全竞争市场的假定,这些假定在我国目前情况下都是难以实现的。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic development momentum has been swift and violent, and has made remarkable achievements. The World Bank analysis report points out that China's economic growth rate and duration are rare in the long history of the world economy. But what kind of high growth is China's economic growth in the end? We can determine the contribution of each factor to economic growth, and then identify whether economic growth is input-based growth or efficiency-based growth, so as to determine the sustainability of economic growth. The contribution of each factor input to economic growth is compared with the contribution of total factor productivity growth to economic growth to further determine whether China's economic policy should be based on increasing aggregate demand or promoting technological progress and adjusting industrial structure. The development of the economy is of great importance.
At present, the methods of calculating total factor productivity can be divided into two categories: the first one is parametric method, which mainly includes Solow residual method, extended Solow residual method, stochastic frontier production function method (SFA), etc. The second one is non-parametric method, which mainly includes index method, data envelopment analysis (DEA), etc. This paper will adopt the Solow residual method proposed by OECD for developed countries, because this method is based on strict economic theory and mathematical deduction, and there is no logical error.
Although Solow residual method is a common method, scholars still have two controversial problems when they adopt this method. The first one is the calculation of labor input. When we calculate labor input, we directly use the concept of employment as labor input. OECD countries suggest to use the concept of labor hours to adjust the quality of labor input, but because of the lack of relevant statistical data in China, it is impossible to use this method at all. Another controversial issue is the measurement of capital input. We adopt the Capital Measurement Manual published in 2004 - on capital stock, fixed capital consumption and capital service measurement. The integrated PIM method proposed in the book is used to measure capital services rather than simply using the concept of fixed capital stock or fixed capital investment to measure total factor productivity.
The total factor productivity measurement includes the following contents:
The first part is to clarify the background and significance of this paper. The measurement of total factor productivity is of great reference value to the analysis of the source of economic growth and the formulation of relevant national economic policies.
In this part, we divide the current TFP research methods into two categories: parametric method and non-parametric method, and comment on the relevant literature of each research method. A generalized estimation method.
In the third part, we mainly elaborate on the measurement method of capital input. In the measurement of total factor productivity, the total output and labor input data are comparatively basic data, it is easy to obtain, the only more difficult is the measurement of capital input. According to the OECD's Capital Measurement Manual, this paper describes the integrated PIM method, including service life, age price function, exit function, user cost, Tornqvist index weighting and so on.
The fourth part is mainly about the selection and processing of labor and output data, and estimates the elasticity of factor output. The labor input data is the number of employees, the data comes from the calendar year's China Statistical Yearbook, and the total output data also comes from the calendar year's China Statistical Yearbook. Gross domestic product (GDP) is converted to GDP at constant prices in 1978. Furthermore, the elasticity of factor output is estimated by our share method.
The fifth part mainly describes the process and result of estimating the capital service quantity.When estimating the capital input quantity,we first classify the assets into three categories and determine the service life of each type of assets.Age-efficiency function we choose hyperbolic model,and the exit function chooses the normal distribution function in the bell-shaped exit function. In stock selection, we directly use the calculation results of other scholars, combined with the total fixed capital formation data over the years, we can estimate the capital input of our country through PIM method, and finally get the capital service index we need.
The sixth part mainly describes the calculation of total factor productivity based on Solow residual method and the analysis of the estimated results. After obtaining the above data, we can get the growth of total factor productivity by subtracting the product of labor input growth rate and capital input growth rate and corresponding output elasticity. The analysis of the estimation results mainly focuses on the following three aspects: the fluctuation analysis of the growth rate of total factor productivity, the relationship between the growth of total factor productivity and economic growth, and the judgment and analysis of the mode of economic growth in China through the estimation results. Factor input (especially capital investment) and TFP are two driving forces.
The seventh part mainly talks about the measures and opinions to improve the total factor productivity, mainly including the following measures: strengthening the consciousness of independent innovation and policy support, improving the efficiency of resource allocation, continuing to deepen the reform of the market economic system, paying attention to the training of labor quality and implementing the strategy of strengthening the country with talents. The transformation of China's economic growth mode and the optimization of industrial structure will comprehensively enhance the total factor productivity, and ultimately make China's economy move towards sustainable development.
In the last part of the article, we summarize the shortcomings of this paper and the future research prospects. The shortcomings are mainly manifested in the processing of capital and labor input data and some more rigorous assumptions, such as the assumption of invariable returns to scale and the assumption of a perfectly competitive market. The former situation is difficult to achieve.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124
本文编号：2220032
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic development momentum has been swift and violent, and has made remarkable achievements. The World Bank analysis report points out that China's economic growth rate and duration are rare in the long history of the world economy. But what kind of high growth is China's economic growth in the end? We can determine the contribution of each factor to economic growth, and then identify whether economic growth is input-based growth or efficiency-based growth, so as to determine the sustainability of economic growth. The contribution of each factor input to economic growth is compared with the contribution of total factor productivity growth to economic growth to further determine whether China's economic policy should be based on increasing aggregate demand or promoting technological progress and adjusting industrial structure. The development of the economy is of great importance.
At present, the methods of calculating total factor productivity can be divided into two categories: the first one is parametric method, which mainly includes Solow residual method, extended Solow residual method, stochastic frontier production function method (SFA), etc. The second one is non-parametric method, which mainly includes index method, data envelopment analysis (DEA), etc. This paper will adopt the Solow residual method proposed by OECD for developed countries, because this method is based on strict economic theory and mathematical deduction, and there is no logical error.
Although Solow residual method is a common method, scholars still have two controversial problems when they adopt this method. The first one is the calculation of labor input. When we calculate labor input, we directly use the concept of employment as labor input. OECD countries suggest to use the concept of labor hours to adjust the quality of labor input, but because of the lack of relevant statistical data in China, it is impossible to use this method at all. Another controversial issue is the measurement of capital input. We adopt the Capital Measurement Manual published in 2004 - on capital stock, fixed capital consumption and capital service measurement. The integrated PIM method proposed in the book is used to measure capital services rather than simply using the concept of fixed capital stock or fixed capital investment to measure total factor productivity.
The total factor productivity measurement includes the following contents:
The first part is to clarify the background and significance of this paper. The measurement of total factor productivity is of great reference value to the analysis of the source of economic growth and the formulation of relevant national economic policies.
In this part, we divide the current TFP research methods into two categories: parametric method and non-parametric method, and comment on the relevant literature of each research method. A generalized estimation method.
In the third part, we mainly elaborate on the measurement method of capital input. In the measurement of total factor productivity, the total output and labor input data are comparatively basic data, it is easy to obtain, the only more difficult is the measurement of capital input. According to the OECD's Capital Measurement Manual, this paper describes the integrated PIM method, including service life, age price function, exit function, user cost, Tornqvist index weighting and so on.
The fourth part is mainly about the selection and processing of labor and output data, and estimates the elasticity of factor output. The labor input data is the number of employees, the data comes from the calendar year's China Statistical Yearbook, and the total output data also comes from the calendar year's China Statistical Yearbook. Gross domestic product (GDP) is converted to GDP at constant prices in 1978. Furthermore, the elasticity of factor output is estimated by our share method.
The fifth part mainly describes the process and result of estimating the capital service quantity.When estimating the capital input quantity,we first classify the assets into three categories and determine the service life of each type of assets.Age-efficiency function we choose hyperbolic model,and the exit function chooses the normal distribution function in the bell-shaped exit function. In stock selection, we directly use the calculation results of other scholars, combined with the total fixed capital formation data over the years, we can estimate the capital input of our country through PIM method, and finally get the capital service index we need.
The sixth part mainly describes the calculation of total factor productivity based on Solow residual method and the analysis of the estimated results. After obtaining the above data, we can get the growth of total factor productivity by subtracting the product of labor input growth rate and capital input growth rate and corresponding output elasticity. The analysis of the estimation results mainly focuses on the following three aspects: the fluctuation analysis of the growth rate of total factor productivity, the relationship between the growth of total factor productivity and economic growth, and the judgment and analysis of the mode of economic growth in China through the estimation results. Factor input (especially capital investment) and TFP are two driving forces.
The seventh part mainly talks about the measures and opinions to improve the total factor productivity, mainly including the following measures: strengthening the consciousness of independent innovation and policy support, improving the efficiency of resource allocation, continuing to deepen the reform of the market economic system, paying attention to the training of labor quality and implementing the strategy of strengthening the country with talents. The transformation of China's economic growth mode and the optimization of industrial structure will comprehensively enhance the total factor productivity, and ultimately make China's economy move towards sustainable development.
In the last part of the article, we summarize the shortcomings of this paper and the future research prospects. The shortcomings are mainly manifested in the processing of capital and labor input data and some more rigorous assumptions, such as the assumption of invariable returns to scale and the assumption of a perfectly competitive market. The former situation is difficult to achieve.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124
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