中国能源效率评估方法及其应用研究

发布时间：2018-09-05 06:29

【摘要】：面对能源短缺和环境恶化,我国《“十二五”节能减排综合性工作方案》规定,到2015年实现节约6.7亿吨标准煤的明确目标。提高能源效率是实现该目标的有效途径之一。论文立足于我国国情,结合理论和现实背景,遵循定义→指标选取→评估方法→结论的研究思路,构建指标体系,建立基于三阶段DEA的我国能源效率评估模型,探索提高我国能源效率的政策选择,为节能减排提供参考建议。论文的主要创新性研究工作如下： (1)在全要素能源效率框架下构建了以能源消费总量、从业人员总数和资本存量为投入指标,以GDP和非期望产出环境影响作为产出指标的能源效率评价指标体系。考虑到非期望产出环境影响,引入我国能源消费碳排放作为环境测量指标、污染物作投入法作为投入变量构建DEA模型,全而考虑了能源消费对环境造成的负面影响。 (2)考虑到信息不完全、测量标准不统一和技术条件局限性等造成难以获取的精确数据的原因,将就业人数和碳排放量作为区间指标来处理,就业人数按上年年末和当年年末人数作为区间两端点,碳排放量按不同碳排放系数标准下的最大和最小值做为区间端点。此外,在第二阶段从固定资产投资、第二产业比重和科技拨款三方面分离环境因素和随机误差的影响,重新调整投入变量带入DEA模型,因此,三阶段DEA模型计算结果更加可靠。 (3)通过第二阶段的SFA回归分析研究环境变量与松弛变量之间的关系,结果发现：固定资产、第二产业占GDP的比重与能源效率负相关,科技拨款与能源效率正相关；此外,通过第二阶段调整后的投入变量重新第三阶段DEA模型结果表明：1978-1993年中国能源效率趋势是递增的,其中1978-1990年能源效率值偏低,1994-2010年能源效率水平趋势较为平稳,而且效率值较高,2010年能源效率值达到最高。
[Abstract]:In the face of energy shortage and environmental deterioration, the comprehensive plan of energy saving and emission reduction in the 12th Five-Year Plan of China stipulates that the clear goal of saving 670 million tons of standard coal by 2015 will be achieved. Improving energy efficiency is one of the effective ways to achieve this goal. Based on the situation of our country, combined with the theoretical and practical background, the paper follows the research idea of defining the index and choosing the evaluation method and conclusion, constructs the index system, and establishes the energy efficiency evaluation model based on three-stage DEA in China. To explore the policy options for improving energy efficiency in China, and to provide reference suggestions for energy saving and emission reduction. The main innovative research work of this paper is as follows: (1) under the framework of all-factor energy efficiency, the total energy consumption, the total number of employees and the capital stock are taken as the input indicators. Energy efficiency evaluation index system based on GDP and non-expected output environmental impact as output indicators. Considering the environmental impact of non-expected output, the DEA model is constructed by introducing energy consumption carbon emissions as environmental measurement indicators and pollutant input method as input variables. Taking into account the negative impact of energy consumption on the environment. (II) taking into account the reasons for the difficulty of obtaining accurate data, such as incomplete information, inconsistent measurement standards and limited technical conditions, The employment and carbon emissions are treated as interval indicators. The number of employed people is regarded as the two ends of the range at the end of last year and the end of the year. The maximum and minimum values of carbon emissions under different standards of carbon emission coefficient are taken as the end points of the interval. In addition, in the second stage, the impact of environmental factors and random errors is separated from three aspects of fixed asset investment, secondary industry proportion and science and technology appropriation, and the input variables are re-adjusted into the DEA model. The results of three-stage DEA model are more reliable. (3) the relationship between environmental variables and relaxation variables is studied by SFA regression analysis in the second stage. The results show that the proportion of fixed assets and secondary industry to GDP is negatively related to energy efficiency. Science and technology grants are positively correlated with energy efficiency. In addition, by re-establishing the third-stage DEA model through the second stage adjusted input variable, the results show that the trend of energy efficiency in China increased from 1978 to 1993. The energy efficiency value of 1978-1990 is low, and the trend of energy efficiency level in 1994-2010 is relatively stable, and the energy efficiency value is higher, and the energy efficiency value reaches the highest in 2010.
【学位授予单位】：五邑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.5;F224

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