中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”进程中的消费率研究
发布时间：2018-09-05 07:43
【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国经济持续近30年的高速增长,受到世界的瞩目。2010年中国人均GDP为4433美元,进入中上等收入阶段。因此,目前面临的最大问题之一就是能否成功地实现由中等收入国家向高收入国家的转变,避免“中等收入陷阱”。跨越“中等收入陷阱”的核心是经济增长问题,我国能否继续高速增长的态势,受到社会各界的关注。我国作为发展中的大国,扩大内需、拉动消费,走向消费主导的经济转型,既是短期政策的着力点,又是中长期的战略选择。2012年党的十八大报告中指出,加快形成新的经济增长方式,把推动发展的立足点转到提高质量和效益上来,着力增强创新驱动发展新动力,着力培育开放型经济发展新优势,使经济发展更多依靠内需特别是消费需求拉动,不断增强长期发展后劲。显然,我国要顺利跨越“中等收入陷阱”,应以消费主导引领发展方式转变,走出一条公平和可持续的科学发展之路。 消费率是表征最终消费支出在总需求中份额的结构性指标,消费率高低是整体经济运行状况的直观反映,对宏观经济政策的制定具有指导性作用。按主体的不同,消费率包括居民消费率和政府消费率,居民消费率和政府消费率相互作用,共同影响着消费率的变动趋势。2001年,我国进入中等收入阶段,消费率尤其是居民消费率呈直线下降趋势,消费率的启动是扩大内需的关键。 本文以经济增长理论和消费理论为指导,全面梳理了经济增长和消费的密切关系。在理论上,探讨了消费对跨越“中等收入陷阱”的影响路径。结合钱纳里—赛尔昆消费率标准,分析“中等收入陷阱”区间消费率与人均GDP的关系。在此基础上,本文进一步分析“中等收入陷阱”区间消费率变动的趋势,并与我国消费率变动的趋势相比较,探讨我国消费率的合理区间,运用实证分析和数量分析方法,剖析居民消费率和政府消费率的关系,借鉴国际的成功经验,从政府消费影响居民消费的视角,提出在消费主导中避免“中等收入陷阱”的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been growing at a high speed for nearly 30 years, which has attracted worldwide attention. In 2010, China's per capita GDP was 4433 US dollars, entering the middle and upper income stage. Therefore, one of the biggest problems is whether the transition from middle-income to high-income countries can be successfully carried out and the "middle-income trap" can be avoided. The core of crossing the "middle income trap" is the problem of economic growth. As a large developing country, expanding domestic demand, stimulating consumption, and moving towards a consumption-led economic transformation are not only the focus of short-term policies, but also the medium and long-term strategic choices. In the report of the 18th National Congress of the CPC in 2012, it was pointed out that Speed up the formation of a new mode of economic growth, shift the foothold for promoting development to improving quality and efficiency, strive to strengthen the new impetus for innovation and drive development, and strive to foster new advantages in the development of an open economy. To make economic development more dependent on domestic demand, especially consumer demand pull, and constantly enhance long-term development stamina. Obviously, in order to cross the "middle income trap" smoothly, our country should lead the way of development by taking the lead of consumption, and walk out a fair and sustainable road of scientific development. Consumption rate is a structural index to represent the share of final consumption expenditure in total demand. Consumption rate is an intuitive reflection of the overall economic operation and has a guiding role in the formulation of macroeconomic policy. According to the main body, the consumption rate includes the consumption rate of the residents and the government, the interaction of the consumption rate and the consumption rate of the government, which affects the changing trend of the consumption rate. In 2001, China entered the middle income stage. The consumption rate, especially the resident consumption rate, is in a downward trend, and the start of the consumption rate is the key to expand domestic demand. Under the guidance of economic growth theory and consumption theory, this paper comprehensively combs the close relationship between economic growth and consumption. In theory, the paper discusses the influence of consumption on crossing the middle-income trap. The relationship between the consumption rate of middle income trap and per capita GDP is analyzed by combining with the standard of Chanari-Selkun consumption rate. On this basis, this paper further analyzes the trend of the change of consumption rate in the "middle income trap" interval, and compares it with the trend of the change of consumption rate in China, and probes into the reasonable interval of consumption rate in our country, and applies the method of empirical analysis and quantitative analysis. This paper analyzes the relationship between resident consumption rate and government consumption rate, draws lessons from international successful experience, and from the perspective of government consumption influencing resident consumption, puts forward some policy suggestions to avoid "middle income trap" in consumption-oriented.
【学位授予单位】：福建师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;F124.7
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been growing at a high speed for nearly 30 years, which has attracted worldwide attention. In 2010, China's per capita GDP was 4433 US dollars, entering the middle and upper income stage. Therefore, one of the biggest problems is whether the transition from middle-income to high-income countries can be successfully carried out and the "middle-income trap" can be avoided. The core of crossing the "middle income trap" is the problem of economic growth. As a large developing country, expanding domestic demand, stimulating consumption, and moving towards a consumption-led economic transformation are not only the focus of short-term policies, but also the medium and long-term strategic choices. In the report of the 18th National Congress of the CPC in 2012, it was pointed out that Speed up the formation of a new mode of economic growth, shift the foothold for promoting development to improving quality and efficiency, strive to strengthen the new impetus for innovation and drive development, and strive to foster new advantages in the development of an open economy. To make economic development more dependent on domestic demand, especially consumer demand pull, and constantly enhance long-term development stamina. Obviously, in order to cross the "middle income trap" smoothly, our country should lead the way of development by taking the lead of consumption, and walk out a fair and sustainable road of scientific development. Consumption rate is a structural index to represent the share of final consumption expenditure in total demand. Consumption rate is an intuitive reflection of the overall economic operation and has a guiding role in the formulation of macroeconomic policy. According to the main body, the consumption rate includes the consumption rate of the residents and the government, the interaction of the consumption rate and the consumption rate of the government, which affects the changing trend of the consumption rate. In 2001, China entered the middle income stage. The consumption rate, especially the resident consumption rate, is in a downward trend, and the start of the consumption rate is the key to expand domestic demand. Under the guidance of economic growth theory and consumption theory, this paper comprehensively combs the close relationship between economic growth and consumption. In theory, the paper discusses the influence of consumption on crossing the middle-income trap. The relationship between the consumption rate of middle income trap and per capita GDP is analyzed by combining with the standard of Chanari-Selkun consumption rate. On this basis, this paper further analyzes the trend of the change of consumption rate in the "middle income trap" interval, and compares it with the trend of the change of consumption rate in China, and probes into the reasonable interval of consumption rate in our country, and applies the method of empirical analysis and quantitative analysis. This paper analyzes the relationship between resident consumption rate and government consumption rate, draws lessons from international successful experience, and from the perspective of government consumption influencing resident consumption, puts forward some policy suggestions to avoid "middle income trap" in consumption-oriented.
【学位授予单位】：福建师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;F124.7
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