考虑滞后效应特征的国际竞争力评价方法研究
发布时间：2018-09-11 06:50
【摘要】：经济危机已使世界经济低迷运行5年,欧债危机的阴云逐渐蔓延,发达国家和发展中国家经济增长乏力,经济危机已经迫使世界开始寻求在短期变革和长期变革的途径。世界各国以及各个研究机构开始对国家竞争力进行重新认识,认真反思其评价方式和评价体系,试图从国家竞争力要素中找到提升本国经济增长的动力。中国也开始了从结构层面寻找突破口,力图通过经济转型等方式来提振经济,提升国际竞争力。 本文以洛桑国际管理发展学院(International Institute for Management Development,简称IMD)提出的竞争力评价理论框架为基础,采用1997年到2011年全球59个经济体面板数据,利用自回归分布滞后模型技术,识别19个竞争要素对经济增长的长短期滞后效应特征,根据竞争要素的滞后效应特征,整合要素信息,构建竞争力增长分指数和发展分指数；采用静态比较方法,剥离IMD评价信息中的长期因素和短期因素,发现金融危机后,大部分发达经济体的短期竞争因素和长期竞争因素表现不平衡,短期因素表现较差,对竞争力排名的下拉作用明显,而长期因素对竞争力排名作用不明显。中国竞争力的短期因素和长期因素表现也不平衡,但不同于发达经济体,具有短期效应特征的竞争要素表现突出,能使竞争力总排名提升七位；具有长期效应特征的竞争要素表现较弱,会使竞争力总排名下降八位。进而对中国竞争力的短期增长与长期发展能力进行优劣势分析,提出优化中国国际竞争力的思路和政策空间。本文提出的以竞争要素的滞后效应特征视角,整合竞争力要素信息的方法,为国家和区域竞争力评价研究提供了一个可供选择的研究思路。
[Abstract]:The economic crisis has caused the world economy to slow down for five years, the European debt crisis has spread gradually, the economic growth of developed and developing countries has been weak, and the economic crisis has forced the world to seek ways to change in the short and long term. Countries and research institutions around the world began to re-understand the competitiveness of the country, seriously reflect on its evaluation methods and evaluation system, trying to find out from the elements of national competitiveness to promote the economic growth of their own power. China has also begun to seek a breakthrough from the structural level in an effort to boost the economy and enhance international competitiveness through economic transformation. Based on the theoretical framework of competitiveness evaluation proposed by Lobsang International School of Management and Development (IMD), this paper adopts the panel data of 59 global economies from 1997 to 2011, and uses the technology of autoregressive distributed lag model. According to the characteristics of lag effect of 19 competitive factors on economic growth, according to the characteristics of lag effect of competitive factors and integrating the information of factors, the index of competitive growth and the index of development are constructed, and the static comparison method is adopted. By stripping out the long-term and short-term factors in IMD evaluation information, it is found that after the financial crisis, the short-term competitive factors and the long-term competitive factors in most developed economies are not balanced, while the short-term factors are poor. The drop-down effect on competitiveness ranking is obvious, while long-term factors have no obvious effect on competitiveness ranking. The short-term factors and long-term factors of China's competitiveness are also unbalanced, but different from the developed economies, the competitive factors with short-term effects are outstanding, which can enhance the overall competitiveness ranking by seven places. The weak performance of competitive factors with long-term effect will reduce the total competitiveness ranking by eight places. Then the advantages and disadvantages of the short-term growth and long-term development of China's competitiveness are analyzed, and the ideas and policy space of optimizing China's international competitiveness are put forward. In this paper, the method of integrating the information of competitive factors from the perspective of lag effect of competitive factors provides an alternative approach for the evaluation of national and regional competitiveness.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F113;F124;F224
本文编号：2235931
[Abstract]:The economic crisis has caused the world economy to slow down for five years, the European debt crisis has spread gradually, the economic growth of developed and developing countries has been weak, and the economic crisis has forced the world to seek ways to change in the short and long term. Countries and research institutions around the world began to re-understand the competitiveness of the country, seriously reflect on its evaluation methods and evaluation system, trying to find out from the elements of national competitiveness to promote the economic growth of their own power. China has also begun to seek a breakthrough from the structural level in an effort to boost the economy and enhance international competitiveness through economic transformation. Based on the theoretical framework of competitiveness evaluation proposed by Lobsang International School of Management and Development (IMD), this paper adopts the panel data of 59 global economies from 1997 to 2011, and uses the technology of autoregressive distributed lag model. According to the characteristics of lag effect of 19 competitive factors on economic growth, according to the characteristics of lag effect of competitive factors and integrating the information of factors, the index of competitive growth and the index of development are constructed, and the static comparison method is adopted. By stripping out the long-term and short-term factors in IMD evaluation information, it is found that after the financial crisis, the short-term competitive factors and the long-term competitive factors in most developed economies are not balanced, while the short-term factors are poor. The drop-down effect on competitiveness ranking is obvious, while long-term factors have no obvious effect on competitiveness ranking. The short-term factors and long-term factors of China's competitiveness are also unbalanced, but different from the developed economies, the competitive factors with short-term effects are outstanding, which can enhance the overall competitiveness ranking by seven places. The weak performance of competitive factors with long-term effect will reduce the total competitiveness ranking by eight places. Then the advantages and disadvantages of the short-term growth and long-term development of China's competitiveness are analyzed, and the ideas and policy space of optimizing China's international competitiveness are put forward. In this paper, the method of integrating the information of competitive factors from the perspective of lag effect of competitive factors provides an alternative approach for the evaluation of national and regional competitiveness.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F113;F124;F224
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