产业关联效应测度理论辨析

发布时间：2018-09-12 06:53

【摘要】：基于投入产出模型可以构建多种产业关联效应测度方法,但不同方法间的区别与联系尚未获得足够重视和透彻把握。本文探讨了常规不加权产业关联测度的真实内涵和局限性,并由经济分析入手探讨和论证了相应的加权测度形式;将简单和加权的两种方式归纳为产业关联的相对(边际或平均)测度和绝对(规模)测度,着重辨析其经济内涵的异同点;进而分别采用Leontief和Ghosh模型体系,从需求拉动和供给推动两个角度测度后向和前向产业关联效应。结合我国投入产出数据的实证分析表明,不同测度方法给出的结果均有其经济分析价值;但相对而言,考虑规模因素的加权测度方法在刻画实际的产业关联效应方面显得更为客观、可信。
[Abstract]:Based on the input-output model, a variety of measurement methods of industrial correlation effects can be constructed, but the differences and connections between different methods have not been paid enough attention to and thoroughly grasped. This paper discusses the true connotation and limitation of the conventional unweighted industrial association measure, and discusses and demonstrates the corresponding weighted measure form from the economic analysis. The simple and weighted methods are classified as relative (marginal or average) measure and absolute (scale) measure of industrial association, and the similarities and differences of their economic connotations are analyzed emphatically, and then the Leontief and Ghosh model systems are adopted, respectively. This paper measures backward and forward industrial correlation effects from two angles of demand-driven and supply-driven. The empirical analysis of input-output data in China shows that the results obtained by different measurement methods are of value in economic analysis, but relatively speaking, The weighted measure method considering the factor of scale is more objective and credible in describing the actual industrial correlation effect.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院;厦门大学国民经济与核算研究所;福建省统计科学重点实验室;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国产业关联特征及支柱产业研究”(11ATZ002) 教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“中国居民消费价格指数(CPI)的理论与实践研究”(11JZD019)资助
【分类号】：F124;F224

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