日本产业结构的特点及其与经济增长的关系（1955-2010）

发布时间：2018-09-12 08:55

【摘要】：产业结构研究一直是产业经济学研究的核心问题，它是一个既牵涉宏观经济，又连接微观经济的桥梁，产业结构可以说是一个国家经济的“中观”性表现。日本创造了战后经济发展的奇迹，，也正经历着长达20年的“停滞”，其产业结构调整具有极大地研究价值。本文选取1955——2010年的日本的产业结构为研究对象，运用配第——克拉克定律、库兹涅茨三次产业的产值与就业变化规律、霍利斯·钱纳里的关于标准产业结构的理论，深入到三次产业内部进行结构分析。三次产业在日本细分为十大产业，每个产业具有自己的特点，内部还拥有丰富的结构。研究发现日本的产业结构调整符合三大产业结构调整的一般趋势，即第一产业占GDP的比重和从业人数逐步减少；第二产业则是先增加到一个峰值后出现减少；第三产业稳步增加。日本又因其国情而具有自己的特点：随着时间不断推移，日本的支柱产业的角色不停转换，纤维——钢铁、化工——家电——汽车——信息产业等交替充当。不同的产业在股票市场也有不同的表现，不同产业证券化程度差异很大，体现了不同产业不同程度的资本化特点。产业结构调整速度与国内生产总值（GDP）的增长速度具有紧密的联系，研究发现：1955——1975年日本GDP保持着10%以上的速度增长，1990——2010年日本GDP的平均增长率不足1%，1955——1975年各产业调整的速度普遍快于1990——2010年产业结构调整的速度，因此得出产业结构调整速度与GDP增长速度正相关的结论。研究发现不同阶段，三大产业对GDP增长所起的作用是不一样的。本文还运用Granger因果检验分析了产业结构与经济增长的因果关系。不同的时间，检验的结果也不一样。产业结构调整变慢既有各种政策效应随时间递减的因素，也有科技革命，消费革命不再那么广泛等诸多原因。产业结构的调整不仅带来了就业结构的改变，同时带来了产业结构的服务业化、信息化，也一定程度上引起了结构性失业。
[Abstract]:The study of industrial structure has always been the core problem in the study of industrial economics. It is a bridge involving both macro economy and micro economy. The industrial structure can be said to be the "mesoscopic" performance of a country's economy. Japan has created a miracle of postwar economic development and is experiencing 20 years of stagnation. The adjustment of its industrial structure has great research value. This paper selects the industrial structure of Japan from 1955-2010 as the research object, applies the law of matching -Clark 's law, the law of output value and employment change of three industries in Kuznets, and Hollis Chanari's theory on the standard industrial structure. Go deep into the three industrial internal structure analysis. Three industries in Japan are divided into ten industries, each with its own characteristics and rich internal structure. It is found that the adjustment of industrial structure in Japan accords with the general trend of the adjustment of the three major industrial structures, that is, the proportion of primary industry to GDP and the number of employees gradually decrease, while the second industry increases to a peak at first and then decreases. The tertiary industry has steadily increased. Japan also has its own characteristics because of its national conditions: with the passage of time, the role of Japan's pillar industry is constantly changing, fiber-steel, chemical-home appliances-automobile-information industry. Different industries have different performances in the stock market, and different industries have different degree of securitization, which reflects the different degree of capitalization of different industries. The speed of industrial structure adjustment is closely related to the growth rate of (GDP). It is found that the average growth rate of GDP in Japan from 1990 to 2010 is less than 1% from 1995 to 1975, and the speed of adjustment of industrial structure in Japan from 1955 to 1975 is generally faster than that of industrial structure adjustment in 1990-2010. Therefore, the paper draws a conclusion that the speed of industrial structure adjustment is positively related to the growth rate of GDP. The study found that the three industries play different roles in GDP growth at different stages. Granger causality test is also used to analyze the causality between industrial structure and economic growth. The results of the tests vary from time to time. The slowness of industrial structure adjustment has many reasons, such as all kinds of policy effect decreasing with time, science and technology revolution, consumption revolution not so widespread and so on. The adjustment of industrial structure has not only brought about the change of employment structure, but also brought about the service industry and informatization of industrial structure, which also caused structural unemployment to a certain extent.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F131.3

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