排放强度目标下中国最优研发及经济增长路径

发布时间：2018-09-12 12:21

【摘要】：以研发投资为减排手段,在最优经济增长模型框架下构建碳排放强度目标约束下的最优控制模型,并针对中国2009年提出的排放强度目标"2020年排放强度降低到2005年的40%~45%",研究了同时满足减排目标和社会福利最大化目标下的最优研发投资路径以及经济平稳增长路线。模拟发现:前轻后重的研发投资路径有利于最大化社会成员的效用,而为了完成减排目标,中国需从2014年开始大幅提高研发投资到2.85%,随后每年都要保持在3%的水平;受此影响,经济平稳增长速度在2014年出现明显回落;排放强度路径呈现从缓慢下降到迅速下降而后降速趋缓的走势;能源消费量和碳排放量总体呈增长趋势,但在2014年继一个小高峰后出现短暂的下调。
[Abstract]:Under the framework of the optimal economic growth model, the optimal control model under the constraint of carbon emission intensity target is constructed with R & D investment as the means of emission reduction. Aiming at the emission intensity target of China in 2009, "reducing the emission intensity in 2020 to 40% or 45% in 2005", this paper studies the optimal path of R & D investment and the stable economic growth path under the goal of both emission reduction and social welfare maximization. The simulation found that the former light and heavy R & D investment path is conducive to maximizing the effectiveness of social members, and in order to achieve the emission reduction target, China needs to substantially increase its R & D investment to 2.85 from 2014, and then maintain its R & D investment at 3% a year thereafter. The steady growth rate of the economy dropped markedly in 2014; the path of emission intensity decreased from slow to rapid and then slowed down; energy consumption and carbon emissions in general showed an increasing trend. But after a small peak in 2014, there was a brief downgrade.
【作者单位】：中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所;华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究计划(973)项目(2012CB955800) 国家自然科学基金项目(41201594) 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目(XDA05150500)
【分类号】：F124;X321

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