北京市电力消费与经济增长的动态关系研究

发布时间：2018-09-17 16:31

【摘要】：北京市经济快速发展的同时，产业结构改善，第三产业占比约80%，北京市已经步入了后工业化‖时代。与传统的工业‖时代的城市相比，后工业化‖时代城市中产业最大的特征就是以服务业为主的第三产业成为推动经济增长的重要力量。产业结构的优化使得单位经济能耗逐渐降低，尤其使得能源投入中电力投入与经济增长之间的关系出现了变化。探究后工业化‖时代北京市经济增长与电力消费之间的关系，有利于实现北京市经济增长与电力消费的均衡发展。在很长一段时间内，研究经济增长问题时往往把能源因素作为外生变量而排除在经济增长的模型之外。但能源并不是取之不尽用之不竭的，能源的日益减少使之成为影响经济增长的最重要约束之一。本文中把电力消费作为内生变量包含在经济增长的分析框架之中，以研究电力消费与经济增长之间的动态关系。对北京市1978-2011年地区生产总值以及用电量进行了研究，在现状分析后对其电力消费强度以及电力消费强度的结构效应和效率效应进行了分析，考察产业结构改善和技术进步对电力效率的影响。然后，建立了包含技术进步、资本、劳动力和电力消费的经济增长模型，，利用误差修正技术动态的考察了经济增长和电力消费之间长期和短期关系。最后，按三次产业划分进行了相同的分析，发现第二产业与第三产业从电力消费到经济增长之间单方向的因果关系是北京市具有从电力消费到经济增长之间单方向的因果关系的重要原因。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of Beijing's economy and the improvement of industrial structure, the proportion of tertiary industry is about 80%. Beijing has entered a post-industrialization era. Compared with the traditional cities in the industrial age, the most important characteristic of the industry in the post-industrial era is that the tertiary industry, which is dominated by the service industry, has become an important force to promote economic growth. With the optimization of industrial structure, the energy consumption per unit economy is gradually reduced, especially the relationship between power input and economic growth in energy input has been changed. It is helpful to realize the balanced development of economic growth and electric power consumption in Beijing by exploring the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption in the post-industrialization period. For a long time, the energy factor is often excluded from the model of economic growth when studying the problem of economic growth as an exogenous variable. However, energy is not inexhaustible. The decreasing of energy becomes one of the most important constraints affecting economic growth. In this paper, electric power consumption is included in the analytical framework of economic growth as an endogenous variable to study the dynamic relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. In this paper, the regional GDP and electricity consumption in Beijing from 1978 to 2011 are studied. After analyzing the current situation, the structural and efficiency effects of power consumption intensity and power consumption intensity are analyzed. The influence of industrial structure improvement and technological progress on electric power efficiency is investigated. Then, an economic growth model including technological progress, capital, labor force and power consumption is established, and the long-term and short-term relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption is investigated by using error correction technology. Finally, the same analysis is carried out according to the three industrial divisions. It is found that the unidirectional causality between the secondary industry and the tertiary industry from electricity consumption to economic growth is an important reason for the one-way causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in Beijing.
【学位授予单位】：北京工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61;F127

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