碳排放与经济发展服从倒U型曲线关系吗——对环境库兹涅茨曲线假说的重新解读

发布时间：2018-09-17 17:34

【摘要】：本文基于环境库兹涅茨曲线假说,选用1995—2010年中国省域面板数据,运用半参数广义可加模型,研究分析中国二氧化碳排放与经济发展的曲线关系以及其形成机制和区域差异。结果显示:(1)在全国层面上,伴随着经济发展,碳排放轨迹表现为单调递增形态,而非传统的EKC假说所描述的"倒U型";(2)规模效应与碳排放显著正相关,技术效应显著地促进了碳减排,组合效应不是影响碳排放的主要因素,且由于规模效应主导了碳排放变动,因此形成了中国单调上升的二氧化碳环境库兹涅茨曲线;(3)不同区域的碳排放轨迹存在差异,与其他地区相比,煤炭资源丰裕地区的CKC曲线呈现出更加明显的单调上升形态。本文政策含义是中国低碳经济政策应充分考虑经济发展的阶段性、区域发展的差异性以及碳排放驱动因素的层次性,制定统筹不同区域差异化的碳减排策略。
[Abstract]:Based on the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis and using the provincial panel data of China from 1995 to 2010, the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic development in China and its formation mechanism and regional differences are studied and analyzed by using the semi-parametric generalized additive model. The results show that: (1) at the national level, with the development of economy, the carbon emission trajectory shows a monotone increasing pattern, rather than the "inverted U type" described by the traditional EKC hypothesis; (2) the scale effect is significantly positively correlated with carbon emissions. The technical effect significantly promoted carbon emission reduction, and the combination effect was not the main factor affecting carbon emissions, and the scale effect led to the change of carbon emissions. Therefore, a monotone rising Kuznets curve of carbon dioxide environment is formed in China. (3) the carbon emission trajectories of different regions are different. Compared with other regions, the CKC curve of coal rich areas shows a more obvious monotone rising pattern. The policy implication of this paper is that China's low-carbon economy policy should fully consider the stages of economic development, regional development differences and the level of carbon emission drivers, and formulate the strategies of carbon emission reduction in different regions.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院;陕西省财政科学研究所;
【基金】：西安交通大学基本科研业务费专项科研项目“绿色经济与能源资源相关利益分享机制研究”(编号:skzd11051)
【分类号】：X22;F124;F224

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