外汇储备累积对中国经济的影响及管理策略研究
发布时间：2018-10-08 15:57
【摘要】：2012年末，中国外汇储备3.31万亿美元，而其中3万多亿美元是2002年以后形成的。2002—2012年的中国外汇储备累积并不是孤立的现象，而是与全球外汇储备累积、“全球失衡”、资本由穷国流向富国、国际投资头寸收益差异等一系列问题联系在一起的。萨默斯提出的国际资本流动悖论正好准确地概括了上述问题，因此本文以“外汇储备积累对中国经济的影响及管理策略研究”为题，试图将中国外汇储备累积现象放在一个更加广阔的国际大背景中进行研究。 全文共分五部分，第一部分“外汇储备管理理论概述”，介绍了外汇储备管理理论的演进、外汇储备规模理论和外汇储备结构理论；第二部分“外汇储备管理的国际比较"，比较了东亚各国外汇储备管理模式的特点以及可资借鉴的经验；第三部分“中国外汇储备累积的规模、成因及结构考察”，，探讨了我国外汇储备规模的成因及结构现状；第四部分“外汇储备累积的国内经济影响"，分析了外汇储备积累对国内经济可能造成的负面影响；第五部分“中国外汇储备高速累积背景下的资产管理策略”，提出了应对高速外汇储备的规模管理、结构管理、风险管理策略及政策思考。 本文的主要结论可概括为： （1）中国外汇储备累积现象并不是孤立的，而是具有深刻的全球背景。在“全球失衡”的背景下，包括中国在内的新兴市场国家的外汇储备累积很大程度上成为对美国的资本输出，成为美国融通巨额经常项目赤字的重要来源。 （2）中国外汇储备规模已经远远超出适度规模。如果从预防需求角度出发，以一个包含进口额、短期外债和广义货币的线性函数来估计外汇储备适度规模区间的话，利用2003--2012年数据的测算表明：2003—2006年，中国实际外汇储备处于适度储备区间；2007年，实际外汇储备与适度储备上限十分接近；2007—2012年，实际外汇储备超过适度储备上限并且幅度不断扩大。 （3）中国外汇储备累积对国内经济造成的实际影响与一般推测之间存在差异。首先，从外汇储备增加到出现通货膨胀之间的传递机制较为复杂，外汇储备增加在一定时期内并不必然诱发通货膨胀。其次，特定时期的国内低利率可能使货币当局在冲销干预中获利。再次，由于我国国债绝大部分为中长期国债，短期国债极少，因此央行票据的发行并未割裂国内公共债务市场，反而在实际上承担了短期国债的部分功能，央行票据发行利率为货币市场和债券市场提供了利率基准。 （4）在选择储备货币的币种结构时应适当增加欧元的配置比例。欧元的问世对美元的国际储备货币地位构成了挑战，2002年以来，美元在全球外汇储备中的比重缓慢下降，欧元的比重缓慢上升。在未来欧元区不断扩大，美元继续贬值和欧洲金融市场广度及深度不断加强等因素的影响下，美元的国际储备货币地位存在被欧元赶超的可能性。利用均值一方差模型进行的实证研究表明：在美元、欧元和日元的选择上，如果以预期收益最大为目标，欧元将获得最大的配置比例。
[Abstract]:At the end of 2012, China's foreign exchange reserves amounted to $31.3 trillion, with more than US $3 trillion being formed after 2002. The accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in China in 2002-2012 is not an isolated phenomenon, but is accumulated with the global foreign exchange reserves. "Global imbalances" The capital is linked to a series of problems, such as poor countries flowing to rich countries and differences in the income of international investment positions. The international capital flow paradox proposed by the Bank of China exactly sums up the above-mentioned problems, so this paper takes Research on the Influence of Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation on China's Economy and Management Strategy In recent years, the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in China is attempted to be studied in a broader international background. The full text is divided into five parts, part of the theory of foreign exchange reserve management The paper introduces the evolution of foreign exchange reserve management theory, the theory of foreign exchange reserve scale and the theory of foreign exchange reserve structure. II. International Reserves Management By comparison, the characteristics of foreign exchange reserve management mode in East Asian countries are compared and the experiences for reference are compared. The Scale, Causes and Structure of China's Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation in Part Three The origin and structure of foreign exchange reserve scale in China are discussed. IV. Domestic economy accumulated by foreign exchange reserves Influence", analyze the negative effects of foreign exchange reserve accumulation on the domestic economy; Part Five: Asset Management under the Background of High-speed Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves in China Strategy ", put forward the scale management, structure management, risk management strategy and policy to deal with the high-speed foreign exchange reserve. Think. The main knot in this article The theory can be summarized as follows: (1) China's foreign exchange reserve accumulation phenomenon is not isolated, but it has Yes a deep global back In the context of" global imbalances", the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in emerging market countries, including China, has largely been a capital output to the United States, becoming a major U. S. an important source of the deficit. (2) China's foreign exchange reserves The model has gone far beyond the moderate scale. From the perspective of prevention demand, based on a linear function of imports, short-term foreign debt and generalized currency to estimate the moderate scale interval of foreign exchange reserves, the calculation of data from 2003 to 2012 shows that China's real foreign exchange reserve is in good condition in 2003-2006. Degree reserve interval; in 2007, the actual foreign exchange reserve was close to the upper limit of moderate reserve; in 2007-2012, the actual foreign exchange reserve exceeded the moderate reserve (3) The accumulation of China's foreign exchange reserves on the domestic economy. First, the transfer mechanism from the increase of foreign exchange reserve to the occurrence of inflation is complicated, and the foreign exchange reserve is increased in one Inflation is not necessarily induced in a definite period. Second, low rates of low interest rates in a particular period may Since most of our national debt is mid-and long-term treasury bonds, short-term treasury bonds are rare, the issuance of the central bank notes has not split the domestic public debt market, but in real terms On the other hand, it bears part of the short-term treasury bonds, and the central bank notes the interest rate as the currency The market and bond market provide a benchmark for interest rates. (4) In selecting reserve currencies The currency structure should be accompanied by an appropriate increase in the euro's allocation. The advent of the euro poses a challenge to the international reserve currency status of the United States dollar and the United States dollar has been in the global foreign exchange reserves since 2002 The gravity of the euro is slowly declining, and the share of the euro is slowly rising. In the future the euro zone continues to expand, the United States dollar continues to depreciate and the European financial market breadth and depth continue to be strengthened, the United States dollar international Reserve currency status is the possibility of being overtaken by the euro. An empirical study using a mean-variance model shows that, on the choice of the dollar, the euro and the yen, if the expected benefit is the most
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124;F832.6
[Abstract]:At the end of 2012, China's foreign exchange reserves amounted to $31.3 trillion, with more than US $3 trillion being formed after 2002. The accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in China in 2002-2012 is not an isolated phenomenon, but is accumulated with the global foreign exchange reserves. "Global imbalances" The capital is linked to a series of problems, such as poor countries flowing to rich countries and differences in the income of international investment positions. The international capital flow paradox proposed by the Bank of China exactly sums up the above-mentioned problems, so this paper takes Research on the Influence of Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation on China's Economy and Management Strategy In recent years, the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in China is attempted to be studied in a broader international background. The full text is divided into five parts, part of the theory of foreign exchange reserve management The paper introduces the evolution of foreign exchange reserve management theory, the theory of foreign exchange reserve scale and the theory of foreign exchange reserve structure. II. International Reserves Management By comparison, the characteristics of foreign exchange reserve management mode in East Asian countries are compared and the experiences for reference are compared. The Scale, Causes and Structure of China's Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation in Part Three The origin and structure of foreign exchange reserve scale in China are discussed. IV. Domestic economy accumulated by foreign exchange reserves Influence", analyze the negative effects of foreign exchange reserve accumulation on the domestic economy; Part Five: Asset Management under the Background of High-speed Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves in China Strategy ", put forward the scale management, structure management, risk management strategy and policy to deal with the high-speed foreign exchange reserve. Think. The main knot in this article The theory can be summarized as follows: (1) China's foreign exchange reserve accumulation phenomenon is not isolated, but it has Yes a deep global back In the context of" global imbalances", the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in emerging market countries, including China, has largely been a capital output to the United States, becoming a major U. S. an important source of the deficit. (2) China's foreign exchange reserves The model has gone far beyond the moderate scale. From the perspective of prevention demand, based on a linear function of imports, short-term foreign debt and generalized currency to estimate the moderate scale interval of foreign exchange reserves, the calculation of data from 2003 to 2012 shows that China's real foreign exchange reserve is in good condition in 2003-2006. Degree reserve interval; in 2007, the actual foreign exchange reserve was close to the upper limit of moderate reserve; in 2007-2012, the actual foreign exchange reserve exceeded the moderate reserve (3) The accumulation of China's foreign exchange reserves on the domestic economy. First, the transfer mechanism from the increase of foreign exchange reserve to the occurrence of inflation is complicated, and the foreign exchange reserve is increased in one Inflation is not necessarily induced in a definite period. Second, low rates of low interest rates in a particular period may Since most of our national debt is mid-and long-term treasury bonds, short-term treasury bonds are rare, the issuance of the central bank notes has not split the domestic public debt market, but in real terms On the other hand, it bears part of the short-term treasury bonds, and the central bank notes the interest rate as the currency The market and bond market provide a benchmark for interest rates. (4) In selecting reserve currencies The currency structure should be accompanied by an appropriate increase in the euro's allocation. The advent of the euro poses a challenge to the international reserve currency status of the United States dollar and the United States dollar has been in the global foreign exchange reserves since 2002 The gravity of the euro is slowly declining, and the share of the euro is slowly rising. In the future the euro zone continues to expand, the United States dollar continues to depreciate and the European financial market breadth and depth continue to be strengthened, the United States dollar international Reserve currency status is the possibility of being overtaken by the euro. An empirical study using a mean-variance model shows that, on the choice of the dollar, the euro and the yen, if the expected benefit is the most
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124;F832.6
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