我国国债经济增长效应研究

发布时间：2018-10-09 15:18

【摘要】：国债的宏观经济效应是一个古老而又崭新的研究领域。以休谟、斯密等为代表的古典经济学家认为国债发行在长期来看不利于资本积累，他们据此对政府发债持否定态度。李嘉图也认为国债的发行对经济运行是中性的,政府不宜盲目扩大发债规模。1929-1933年的经济危机之后，凯恩斯认为政府应该放弃传统预算平衡原则，主动发行国债管理需求来平抑经济波动。在我国，，国债理论的发展与西方国家基本一致，从20世纪80年代以前到90年代中后期，我国国债经历了从被限制到被确立为宏观调控政策工具的转变，随着这一转变，我国的财政思想也从追求预算平衡转为功能扩张财政，国债政策已成为政府进行需求管理，促进经济增长的主要手段之一。本文从当前我国国债发行实践出发，以李嘉图等价定理为切入点，对我国国债发行对经济增长之间的关系进行了研究。首先从理论上明确国债发行对于经济增长促进、中性以及妨碍的三个方面的效应。然后结合数据，建立理论分析模型对于李嘉图等价定理在我国是否适用、国债发行与经济增长的关系进行检验，得出了李嘉图等价定理在我国不适用、国债发行拉动了经济增长的结论。并针对实践检验结果，提出对我国国债实践具有一定参考价值的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The macroeconomic effect of national debt is an old and new research field. The classical economists, such as Hume and Smith, think that the issuance of treasury bonds is not conducive to capital accumulation in the long run, so they hold a negative attitude toward the issuance of government bonds. Ricardo also believes that the issuance of treasury bonds is neutral to the economic operation, and that the government should not blindly expand the size of the issuance of bonds. After the economic crisis of 1929-1933, Keynes thought that the government should give up the traditional principle of budget balance. Actively issue treasury bonds to manage demand to calm economic fluctuations. In our country, the development of the national debt theory is basically consistent with that of the western countries. From the 1980s to the middle and late 1990s, the national debt of our country has undergone a transformation from being restricted to being established as a tool of macro-control policy. The fiscal thought of our country has also changed from the pursuit of budget balance to the functional expansion of finance. The national debt policy has become one of the main means for the government to carry out demand management and promote economic growth. Based on the current practice of national debt issuance in China, this paper studies the relationship between national debt issuance and economic growth by using Ricardo's equivalence theorem as the starting point. Firstly, the effects of treasury bond issuance on economic growth, neutrality and hindrance are clarified theoretically. Then, combining with the data, a theoretical analysis model is established to test whether Ricardo's equivalence theorem is applicable in China, and the relationship between the issuance of national debt and economic growth is tested, and it is concluded that Ricardo's equivalence theorem is not applicable in China. The issue of national debt drew the conclusion of economic growth. According to the result of practice test, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions which have certain reference value to the practice of national debt in our country.
【学位授予单位】：广东商学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.5;F124.1

【参考文献】