中国生产率估计及其波动分解

发布时间：2018-10-11 17:37

【摘要】：生产率被视为长期经济增长的决定因素,经验分析中如何识别其影响因素却存在很大分歧。本文首先估计了中国1978-2013年全国和各省各年的生产率水平,之后考察生产率波动的影响机制,并对2008年以来生产率下降的成因进行分解。研究发现:(1)就技术进步与技术效率角度而言,研发强度和对外开放程度对生产率的影响显著为正,而相对收入水平的影响显著为负;(2)存货规模和就业参与率通过影响要素的有效使用量,分别对生产率产生显著的负向和正向影响;(3)从要素配置效率角度来看,政府干预对生产率有显著负面影响,投资率与生产率显著负相关。中国近年来生产率下降主要源于其"后发优势"不断减弱、就业参与率持续降低与投资率不断攀升。
[Abstract]:Productivity is regarded as the determinant of long-term economic growth, but there are many differences in how to identify the influencing factors in empirical analysis. This paper first estimates the productivity levels in China from 1978 to 2013, then investigates the mechanism of productivity fluctuation and analyzes the causes of productivity decline since 2008. The results show that: (1) in terms of technological progress and technological efficiency, the impact of R & D intensity and degree of opening to the outside world on productivity is significantly positive. The impact of relative income level is significantly negative; (2) inventory size and employment participation rate have significant negative and positive effects on productivity by influencing the effective use of factors; (3) from the perspective of factor allocation efficiency, inventory size and employment participation rate have significant negative and positive effects on productivity, respectively. Government intervention has a significant negative impact on productivity, and investment rate is negatively correlated with productivity. The decline in productivity in China in recent years is mainly due to the weakening of its "late-development advantage", the continued decline in employment participation and the rising investment rate.
【作者单位】：清华大学经济管理学院;中央财经大学经济学院;
【基金】：2010年度国家社科重大基金项目(10zd&007) 教育部人文社科一般项目(12YJC790269)的资助
【分类号】：F124

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