我国经济增长中的居民受益非均衡性分析

发布时间：2018-10-24 12:13

【摘要】：低收入人群是否以及在多大程度上分享了经济增长成果,近年来尤其受到国内外学术界及各国政府的关注。增强经济增长过程中的低收入人群的受益程度,让各经济主体公平合理地分享经济增长成果,逐渐成为许多国际组织的目标之一。1978年以来,我国经济持续高速增长,居民收入差距也急剧扩张,这意味着不同人群在经济增长中的利益分享存在差异。究竟如何描述这种差异?不同人群在经济增长过程中的利益分享差异有多大?如何变动?影响机制是什么?以及如何看待这些差异?等问题亟需回答。本文以社会福利的评价标准为价值基础,通过对穷人受益型增长(pro-poor growth)分析框架的反思,提出了基于收入分布全分布分析的新思路。按照该思路,在对经济增长中的居民受益非均衡性总体描述性统计分析之后,本文从三个层次来分析不同收入组人群收入增长及其决定机制：一是宏观分析,直接将不同收入组人群的收入增长与宏观经济政策变量关联,分析宏观政策对不同收入组收入增长的影响；二是微观分析,通过运用无条件分位回归方法,对不同分位点的收入函数进行估计和分解,来理解不同收入组人群收入增长的决定机制；三是回到传统,从贫困及其变动的分析中来理解经济增长的居民受益非均衡性。主要结论有：第一,本文发现城镇居民在经济增长过程中受益非均衡性的变化特征更为明显。不同收入组人群的收入增长率之间表现出明显的非均衡性。城镇居民和农村居民低收入人群都越来越依赖于工薪收入来分享经济增长的成果。转移性收入在农村低收入人群的收入份额及其收入增长贡献在不断上升。第二,通过时间序列分析发现：(1)第一产业产值比重和就业比重与城镇居民收入增长负相关,第一产业在GDP中的比重对高收入人群作用更强,第产业就业比重对低收入组的影响更大；而第二、三产业发展使得城镇高收入居民受益更大。(2)固定资产投资对城镇低收入人群的收入具有拉动作用,但不利于高收入人群的收入增长；高收入人群更能从利用外资中受益,低收入人群收入不会受到显著影响。(3)对外开放对于各收入组的收入增长效应具有明显的差异性。高收入人群从汇率调整中更容易受益,进出口贸易发展更有助于拉动低收入者收入增加。第三,通过G·Fields分解分析发现：(1)对于城镇居民收入差距的扩张,区域差异在历年解释中一直都具有比较高的贡献份额,教育程度的解释作用在逐渐增强,而所有制、职业、行业等因素的总体解释作用相对较弱。(2)不同时期城镇居民收入差距扩张的解释因素具有明显的差异性。第四,通过无条件分位回归分析发现：(1)城镇居民个体特征(禀赋)效应的相对解释程度随着分位点的变化表现出倒U型的关系。高收入分位点的收入增长中,教育系数回报的贡献份额通常更高,教育收益率的递增变化对于城镇高收入人群的收入增长更为有利。20世纪90年代所有制结构调整更加有利于高收入人群,而不利于收入分布低端人群的收入增长。(2)农村居民个体特征(禀赋)效应的相对解释程度随着分位点的变化在不同时期具有较强的差异性。但各因素对不同分位点收入决定的解释程度在不同时期中并不具有一致的规律性联系。第五,通过农村居民贫困及其变动的分解分析发现：(1)经济增长的贫困减缓效应存在着明显的地区差异性；经济增长的减贫作用在较大程度上为收入差距扩大所抵消,极端贫困人口越来越难以从现有的经济增长模式中获益。(2)在不同年份,教育对于贫困减缓的效应存在较大的差异性,在最近的年份中这种减缓效应有所下降。一般而言,高中教育的贫困减缓效应最强。文章的创新之处主要有,一是对收入分布全分布进行分析的思路相对于穷人受益型增长的分析思路是一种改进。利用时问序列方法和无条件回归方法来研究该问题,相比其他分析方法有新意,由此得到的结论也有新意。不足之处,限于现有住户调查数据的特点,对某些问题难以分析。
[Abstract]:The extent to which the low-income population has shared the results of economic growth has been particularly concerned by academia and governments at home and abroad in recent years. To enhance the benefit of low-income people in the course of economic growth, let the economic subjects share the fruits of economic growth in a fair and reasonable way and become one of the goals of many international organizations. Since 1978, China's economy continues to grow at a high rate and the gap between the economy and the economy has expanded dramatically. This means that different groups share differences in the benefits of economic growth. How does this difference be described? How big is the difference in the benefits of different people in the process of economic growth? How do I change? What is the impact mechanism? And how do you look at these differences? There is an urgent need to answer questions. Based on the evaluation standard of social welfare, this paper puts forward a new idea based on the distribution of income distribution based on the reflection of the benefit-type growth analysis framework of the poor. According to the thought, the income growth and decision mechanism of different income groups in different income groups are analyzed from three levels after the overall descriptive statistics and analysis of non-equilibrium of residents in economic growth. directly associating the income growth of different income groups with the macroeconomic policy variables, analyzing the influence of macro policies on the income growth of different income groups, 2, micro analysis, estimating and decomposing the income functions of different sub-sites by applying unconditional partial-bit regression method, To understand the determinants of income growth in different groups of income groups; three are to return to traditions and to understand the benefits of economic growth from the analysis of poverty and its changes. The main conclusions are as follows: First, this paper finds that urban residents benefit from non-balanced change in the process of economic growth. There was a clear imbalance between the income growth rates among the different groups of income groups. Both urban residents and low-income people in rural areas are increasingly dependent on wage incomes to share the fruits of economic growth. The share of the income of metastatic income in rural low-income groups and their growth in income continue to rise. Second, through time series analysis, it is found that: (1) The proportion of the first industrial output value and the proportion of employment are negatively correlated with the income growth of urban residents, the proportion of the first industry in GDP is higher than that of the high-income group, the proportion of the industrial employment to the low-income group is greater; and the second, The development of three industries has led to greater benefits for urban high-income residents. (2) The investment of fixed assets has a pulling effect on the income of low-income people in cities and towns, but it is not conducive to income growth of high-income people; high-income people can benefit from the utilization of foreign capital; incomes of low-income people will not be significantly affected. (3) Opening up to the outside world has obvious difference to the income growth effect of each income group. High-income people benefit from exchange rate adjustment, and import and export trade development is more conducive to the increase in income from low-income people. Thirdly, through the analysis and analysis of G 路 Fields, it is found that: (1) For the expansion of the income gap of urban residents, the regional difference always has a relatively high contribution share in the interpretation of the calendar year, the explanation of education level plays an important role in the gradual enhancement, while the ownership, occupation, The overall interpretation of factors such as industry is relatively weak. (2) There are obvious differences in explaining factors of income gap expansion of urban residents in different periods. Fourth, we find that: (1) The relative interpretation of individual characteristic (endowment) effect of urban residents shows inverted U-shape with the change of sub-site. In the income growth of high-income sub-sites, the contribution share of education coefficient return is usually higher, the incremental change of education yield is more beneficial to the income growth of high-income people in cities and towns. but is not conducive to income growth of low-end groups of income distribution. (2) The relative interpretation of individual characteristic (endowment) effect of rural residents has higher difference in different periods along with the change of sub-site. However, the degree of interpretation of various factors on the income decisions in different sub-sites did not have consistent regularity in different periods. Fifthly, through the analysis and analysis of poverty and change of rural residents, it is found that: (1) the poverty alleviation effect of economic growth has obvious regional difference; the poverty alleviation effect of economic growth is offset by the expansion of income gap in a large extent; Extreme poverty is becoming increasingly difficult to benefit from existing economic growth models. (2) In different years, education has a greater difference in the effects of poverty alleviation, which has declined in the most recent years. In general, the poverty alleviation effect of high school education is the strongest. The main part of the innovation of the paper is that the analysis of the distribution of income distribution is an improvement over the analysis of the benefit-benefit growth of the poor. The method and unconditional regression method are used to study the problem. Compared with other analytical methods, the results are new. The deficiency is limited to the characteristics of existing household survey data, and it is difficult to analyze some problems.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F124.1;F124.7

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