我国货币供应量对产出增长的影响分析

发布时间：2018-11-01 20:26

【摘要】：自改革开放以来,我国一直经历着高速的经济增长。理论上来说,政府的宏观调控应该是促成这种高速增长的原因之一。货币政策作为宏观调控的重要方面,在我国的经济增长中起到了不可缺少的作用。目前,我国货币政策的中介目标是货币供应量。研究我国的货币供应量和经济增长之间的关系,具有十分重要的意义。本文主要研究1978年至2012年以来,我国的货币供应量和经济增长之间的关系。在实证研究的过程中,本文以Solow残差来代表经济增长,其目的是使实证过程更具有经济意义。经济总量由总供给和总需求的均衡来决定。货币政策主要是通过影响总需求,从而让经济形成新的供求均衡,最终使经济总量达到新的水平。而生产要素的投入量则是影响总供给的重要因素,一般情况下,如果生产要素的投入量增加,则产出总量会随之增加。因此,与简单的GDP增长率相比,Solow残差更适合用来研究货币供应量对经济增长的影响。从统计意义上来说,Solow残差从GDP增长率中剔除了生产要素投入量的增长,因此,Solow残差度量的是不受生产要素投入量影响的那部分经济增长。本文通过对我国货币供应量和Solow残差之间的相关性进行实证研究,得出我国货币政策和GDP增长之间的关系,从而对我国货币政策的有效性进行评价。全文结构如下：第一章为绪论,首先介绍了本文的研究背景和研究意义,然后对国内以及国外的相关研究成果进行了综述,包括针对Solow残差所做的研究,以及针对货币政策有效性所进行的研究。本章的最后阐述了本文的研究思路。第二章主要介绍与本文相关的基础理论。首先介绍了与Solow增长模型相关的理论,简要描述了从生产函数中推导出Solow残差的过程,并概括了Solow残差的经济意义。然后介绍了与货币政策有关的理论,主要用AD-AS和IS-LM模型来说明货币政策如何影响经济总量,以及影响货币政策效果的主要因素。第三章主要包括两部分内容。在第一部分内容中,以Solow模型的生产函数为回归方程形式,对1978年至2012年的中国经济数据进行回归估计,从估计结果中获取了Solow残差。在第二部分中,本文利用Granger检验,证明了货币供应量和Solow残差之间存在显著的因果关系。第四章主要研究货币供应量与Solow残差之间的短期关系。实证方法主要是对VAR模型进行回归估计,以及脉冲响应分析。本章的实证结果显示,在短期内,货币供应量对Solow残差有显著的影响,而Solow残差对货币供应量却没有显著影响。另外,这两个变量之间的关系是正相关的。货币供应量的增加将引起Solow残差的上升。该实证结果说明,我国的货币政策在短期内是有效的,能够对经济增长产生调控作用。第五章主要关注货币供应量和Solow残差之间的长期关系。通过Johansen协整检验得出,我国的货币供应量和Solow残差之间存在长期内的协整关系。从协整方程中可以看到,在长期内,我国的货币供应量和Solow残差之间的协整关系是正相关的。接下来通过方差分解得出,货币供应量在长期内虽然能够影响Solow残差,但作用效果较小。第六章为结论和政策建议。首先对全文的实证结果进行了总结,然后根据本文结论和我国的实际情况,对我国的货币政策提出了几点建议。本文的创新点是使用Solow残差作为度量经济增长的指标,而不是直接使用GDP增长率。使用Solow残差进行实证研究有以下两点优越性：第一,Solow残差中不含有生产要素投入量这一因素,剔除了生产要素投入量的改变对经济增长的影响,从而使计量过程更加准确和严谨。第二,Solow残差具有特殊的经济意义,在经济增长理论的研究中,Solow残差一直被经济学家当做一个“黑盒”来加以分析,期望从中得知经济增长的主要来源。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening-up, China has been experiencing high-speed economic growth. In theory, the government's macro-control should be one of the reasons for this high-speed growth. As an important aspect of macro-control, monetary policy plays an indispensable role in our country's economic growth. At present, the medium target of China's monetary policy is money supply. It is very important to study the relationship between money supply and economic growth in our country. This paper mainly studies the relationship between money supply and economic growth of our country since 1978 to 2012. In the process of empirical research, this paper represents the economic growth by Solow residuals, which aims to make the empirical process more economical. Meaning: equilibrium of total supply and aggregate demand. Deciding. Monetary policy is mainly through the influence of aggregate demand, so that the economy forms new supply and demand balance, and finally makes the economy new. Level. The input quantity of production elements is an important factor that affects the total supply. In general, if the input quantity of production elements is increased, the total output will follow. So, compared with simple GDP growth, Solow's residuals are more suitable for research on money supply for economic growth In statistical sense, Solow residuals eliminate the increase of input quantity of production elements from GDP growth rate. Therefore, Solow residual measure is the part of economy that is not affected by the input quantity of production factors. This paper makes an empirical study on the correlation between China's monetary supply and Solow residuals, and concludes the relationship between China's monetary policy and GDP growth, and thus the effective monetary policy in China. Evaluation of sex. The text structure is as follows: Chapter 1 is the introduction, first introduces the research background and research significance of this paper, then reviews the relevant research achievements in China and abroad, including the research on Solow residual, and the policy of monetary policy. A study carried out in this chapter. The last part of this chapter. The research ideas of this paper are discussed in this paper. This paper first introduces the theory related to the Solow growth model, briefly describes the process of deriving the Solow residual from the production function, and summarizes S This paper introduces the theory of monetary policy, mainly uses AD-AS and IS-LM model to explain how the monetary policy affects the economy, as well as the influence. The main factors of monetary policy effect. The third chapter mainly includes two parts. In the first part, the regression estimation of China's economic data from 1978 to 2012 is made by using the production function of Solow model as the regression equation. The Solow residual is obtained in the count result. In the second part, the Granger test is used to prove the money supply and the Solo There is a significant causal relationship between the w residuals. Short-term relationship between quantity and Solow residuals. The empirical approach is primarily to VAR The model carries out regression estimation and impulse response analysis. The empirical results of this chapter show that in the short term, the money supply has a significant effect on the Solow residual, and Row residuals have no significant impact on money supply. In addition, the relationship between these two variables is positively correlated. Money supply The increase in quantity will cause the rise of Solow's residual. The empirical results show that China's monetary policy in the short term is Effective and able to regulate the economic growth. Chapter Five focuses on The long-term relationship between the money supply and the Solow residual. The money supply in China is derived from the Johansen Association's test. There is a long-term cowhole relationship between the Solow residuals. It can be seen from the cointegration equation that in the long run, our country's money supply The correlation between the residual and the Solow residuals is positively correlated. The variance is then decomposed to derive the money supply over a long period of time. However, the Solow residual can be affected The sixth chapter is the conclusion and policy suggestion. Firstly, the empirical results of the whole thesis are summarized, and then according to the conclusion of this paper. The actual situation of our country has put forward some suggestions on the monetary policy of our country. The innovation point in this paper is the use of Solow residue. As a measure of economic growth, the difference is not the direct use of GDP growth rate. The empirical research using the Solow residual has the following two advantages: First, there is no factor in the input quantity of the production factors in the first and Solow residuals, and the input quantity of the production factors is eliminated. Second, Solow's residual has a special economic significance. In the research of economic growth theory, Solow's residual has been regarded as a "black box" by economists.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.2;F124.1

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