长江流域工业化、城镇化和农业现代化协调发展的作用机理及综合评价

发布时间：2018-11-08 11:38

【摘要】：实现工业化、城镇化和农业现代化(以下简称"三化")协调发展,是推进我国"四化同步"建设的必然要求。本文首先从理论层面分析了"三化"协调发展的传导机制,其次通过构建区域"三化"协调发展水平指标体系,以2009-2011年沿长江40个城市的面板数据为基础,利用主成分分析方法测算了各区域"三化"发展水平,最后采用几何平均与算术平均调整的方法评估了流域"三化"协调发展水平。结果表明,长江流域地区"三化"综合水平不断提高,上中下游间发展不平衡;从区域差异来看,"三化"综合水平呈现东高西低阶梯状,协调度较高的地区多集中于长三角地区和部分省会城市,而生态较为脆弱的地区(如昭通、自贡、泸州、乐山、宜宾等)以及部分粮食主产区(如滁州、岳阳、荆州、黄冈等)的"三化"水平仍处于较低发展水平。
[Abstract]:Realizing the coordinated development of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization (hereinafter referred to as "three modernizations") is the inevitable requirement of promoting the construction of "four modernizations" in our country. This paper first analyzes the transmission mechanism of the coordinated development of the "three modernizations" from the theoretical level, and then, by constructing the index system of the regional "three modernizations" coordinated development level, based on the panel data of 40 cities along the Yangtze River from 2009-2011. The development level of "three modernizations" in each region is estimated by principal component analysis method. Finally, the coordinated development level of "three modernizations" in river basin is evaluated by the method of geometric average and arithmetic average adjustment. The results show that the comprehensive level of the "three modernizations" in the Yangtze River basin is constantly improving, and the development between the upper, middle and lower reaches is unbalanced. In terms of regional differences, the comprehensive level of "three modernizations" presents a low ladder shape in the east and west, and the areas with a higher degree of coordination are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region and some provincial capitals, while the areas with relatively fragile ecology (such as Zhaotong, Zigong, Luzhou, Leshan, etc.) are mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region and some provincial capitals. Yibin and some major grain producing areas (such as Chuzhou, Yueyang, Jingzhou, Huanggang, etc.) are still in a low level of development.
【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所;北京农业信息技术研究中心;
【基金】：农业部2012年专项课题“中国不同区域工业化、城镇化和农业现代化同步推进的模式选择和政策支持体系研究”(跨年度项目) 天津社科基金课题:天津市农村工业化、农业现代化和农村城镇化同步推进的综合评价与实现路径研究(TJYY12-115)
【分类号】：F127

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