基于生态系统服务理论的中国绿色经济转型预测分析
发布时间：2018-11-09 18:34
【摘要】：着眼于中国绿色经济转型之路的科学预测与分析,借鉴传统环境负荷模型以及资源与经济脱钩理论、区位熵理论等,提出基于生态系统服务理论的有关绿色经济指标评价模型。应用该模型计算出2001—2010年全球及中国有关绿色经济指标,依照未来中国经济与社会发展规划目标,预计"十二五"末期中国经济发展中的资源消耗及环境损失成本、人均绿色GDP将分别达到3.11×1012美元、0.37×104美元,生态负荷强度、资源脱钩指数及绿色GDP的区位熵指数分别为0.38、0.66、75;2020年中国绿色GDP的区位熵指数将超越全球平均水平、2024年人均GDP将突破1万美元关口步入中等发达国家行列。计算结果表明中国生态系统压力逐年降低、资源利用效率、环境绩效与经济效益同步提高,逐渐在全球经济绿色转型过程中发挥重要作用;未来,中国仍需秉承"共同但有区别的责任"原则,处理好与其他国家的权责纷争;同时积极推进节能减排、经济结构调整工作,进一步协调好城乡之间、区域之间经济社会发展与自然资源及生态环境的关系。
[Abstract]:This paper focuses on the scientific prediction and analysis of the road of green economy transformation in China, draws lessons from the traditional environmental load model, the decoupling theory of resources and economy, the theory of location entropy, and puts forward the evaluation model of green economy index based on ecosystem service theory. The model is used to calculate the global and China green economy indexes for the period 2001-2010. According to the future economic and social development planning goals of China, the resource consumption and environmental loss cost in China's economic development at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan are estimated. The per capita green GDP will reach 3.11 脳 1012 US dollars and 0.37 脳 104.The ecological load intensity, the resource decoupling index and the location entropy index of green GDP will be 0.38 脳 1012 and 0.37 脳 10 ~ 4, respectively. In 2020, the location entropy index of China's green GDP will exceed the global average, and the per capita GDP in 2024 will exceed the $10, 000 mark and become a moderately developed country. The results show that the pressure of Chinese ecosystem decreases year by year, the efficiency of resource utilization, environmental performance and economic benefit increase simultaneously, and gradually play an important role in the process of global economic green transformation. In the future, China still needs to adhere to the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities", and deal with the rights and responsibilities disputes with other countries; At the same time, we should actively promote energy saving and emission reduction, adjust the economic structure, and further coordinate the relationship between economic and social development, natural resources and ecological environment between urban and rural areas and between regions.
【作者单位】： 辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院;辽宁省水文局;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(14YJAZH112) 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20122136110003) 辽宁省社会科学规划基金(L13BJL019) 辽宁经济社会发展课题(2014lslktzixxjx-06)
【分类号】：F124.5
[Abstract]:This paper focuses on the scientific prediction and analysis of the road of green economy transformation in China, draws lessons from the traditional environmental load model, the decoupling theory of resources and economy, the theory of location entropy, and puts forward the evaluation model of green economy index based on ecosystem service theory. The model is used to calculate the global and China green economy indexes for the period 2001-2010. According to the future economic and social development planning goals of China, the resource consumption and environmental loss cost in China's economic development at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan are estimated. The per capita green GDP will reach 3.11 脳 1012 US dollars and 0.37 脳 104.The ecological load intensity, the resource decoupling index and the location entropy index of green GDP will be 0.38 脳 1012 and 0.37 脳 10 ~ 4, respectively. In 2020, the location entropy index of China's green GDP will exceed the global average, and the per capita GDP in 2024 will exceed the $10, 000 mark and become a moderately developed country. The results show that the pressure of Chinese ecosystem decreases year by year, the efficiency of resource utilization, environmental performance and economic benefit increase simultaneously, and gradually play an important role in the process of global economic green transformation. In the future, China still needs to adhere to the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities", and deal with the rights and responsibilities disputes with other countries; At the same time, we should actively promote energy saving and emission reduction, adjust the economic structure, and further coordinate the relationship between economic and social development, natural resources and ecological environment between urban and rural areas and between regions.
【作者单位】： 辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院;辽宁省水文局;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(14YJAZH112) 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20122136110003) 辽宁省社会科学规划基金(L13BJL019) 辽宁经济社会发展课题(2014lslktzixxjx-06)
【分类号】：F124.5
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