中国城镇化发展战略:从冒进到适度的地理版图

发布时间：2018-12-19 15:54

【摘要】：十多年来,中国城镇化脱离了循序渐进的原则,出现了冒进城镇化和贫困城镇化,不仅没有有效地启动内需,反而在一定程度上抑制了内需。实现启动内需,城镇化必须坚守产业化为基础的原则。本文首先建立了一个新经济地理模型,从理论上阐述了产业化对城镇化的支撑作用。然后,借助非农产业数据,比较分析了2001~2011年中国城市非农产业增加值与从业人员的变化,探讨了"十二五"时期的中国城镇化战略。东部地区"涓滴-扩散"效应已经显现,未来城镇化的空间形态是均衡化;中西部地区集聚仍是主要态势,都市圈/城市群是城镇化的主要形态。根据产业增加值与从业人员的变化,将全国分为四类区域。增加值和就业都增长的区域是城镇化的重点区域,未来的重点是提高城镇化质量;增加值份额增加、就业份额下降的区域重视发展吸收就业能力强的产业,提高城镇化的持续性;增加值份额下降、就业份额增加的区域通过产业升级和发展服务业,提高产业附加值,调整结构偏差;增加值和就业都下降的大面积连片区域,则要发展省域增长极,避免空心化。
[Abstract]:For more than a decade, China's urbanization has deviated from the principle of gradual and orderly progress, resulting in bold urbanization and poor urbanization, which has not only failed to effectively stimulate domestic demand, but also restrained domestic demand to a certain extent. To achieve the start of domestic demand, urbanization must adhere to the principle of industrialization as the basis. In this paper, a new economic geography model is established, and the supporting effect of industrialization on urbanization is expounded theoretically. Then, with the help of non-agricultural industry data, this paper compares and analyzes the value added of urban non-agricultural industry and the changes of employees in China from 2001 to 2011, and probes into the urbanization strategy of China during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. The effect of "trickle-down diffusion" has been shown in the eastern region, the spatial form of urbanization in the future is equalization, the centralization of the central and western regions is still the main situation, and the urban circle / urban agglomeration is the main form of urbanization. According to the changes of industry value added and employees, the whole country is divided into four regions. The region with increasing value added and employment is the key area of urbanization, and the key point in the future is to improve the quality of urbanization. Regions with increased added value and lower employment share attach importance to the development of industries with strong employability to improve the sustainability of urbanization; The regions where the added value share decreases and the employment share increases by upgrading the industry and developing the service industry raise the added value of the industry and adjust the structural bias; A large area of continuous regions, where both value added and employment are declining, should develop provincial growth poles and avoid hollowing.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;美国北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校文理学院;
【基金】：中国博士后科学基金资助项目“马歇尔与雅各布斯外部性”(2013M530789) 美国北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校资助项目“Geography and Agglomeration Economies”(P-1-04774)
【分类号】：F299.21;F124

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