印度经济增长潜力研究

发布时间：2019-01-05 10:30

【摘要】：从20世纪后半叶开始,世界经济增长的中心已经悄然从欧美发达地区慢慢转移到亚洲太平洋区域。亚太地区国家不断创造着经济增长的奇迹。到了20世纪末,中国和印度作为世界上最大的两个发展中国家开始展现出自己的实力,成为世界上经济增长最快的两个国家。2003年美国高盛公司将巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国并称为“金砖四国”,并预测在2050年左右,中国和印度都将超越美国成为世界前两大经济体。2010年,印度的GDP增速首次超过中国。2012年,根据国际货币基金组织发布的数据显示,2011年度印度GDP(购买力平价法)达到4.46万亿美元,超过日本成为世界第三大经济体。然而从2012年第一季度开始一直到2014年,印度的经济增速明显放缓,2014年预计增长率只有5%,金砖“成色”有所褪去。同其他发展中国家通过工业化来促进经济发展相比,印度的制造业一直都发展缓慢,相反第三产业的发展却十分迅速。本文的目的就是运用经济增长模型来剖析印度的经济发展,同时对印度经济增长的潜力进行评估。首先,本文对印度的经济增长进行了分析。由于拉奥改革使得印度的经济体制发生了结构性变化,因此本文分别分析了拉奥改革前后印度经济增长的历程。随后,本文通过对印度潜在产出以及产出缺口的测量估计了在短期内经济环境没有大改变的情况下,印度经济增长的潜力。然而,我们更希望了解印度在未来一段时期内能否保持一个较高的增长率。所以本文对印度GDP的增长率进行了预测。本文采用了两种方法对印度GDP的增长率进行了预测以避免单一方法带来的偏差。当然,对于印度这样一个发展中国家而言,其本身的经济发展不可避免的受到非经济因素的影响。因此本文在最后一部分着重分析了影响印度经济增长的内外部因素,并试图指出这些因素对于印度未来经济增长的影响。在对印度内部的政治,文化以及安全方面的问题进行分析后,本文剖析了全球化趋势下,印度同其几个亲密国家和区域的关系。在经济发展内部动力不足的前提下,通过发展同其他国家的关系将是印度打开经济增长之门的钥匙。通过分析发现,印度在未来10年将达到一个年平均8%-9%的水平。可以说印度还是存在着比较大的经济增长潜力的。
[Abstract]:Since the second half of the 20th century, the center of world economic growth has quietly shifted from the developed regions of Europe and America to the Asia Pacific region. Countries in the Asia-Pacific region continue to create a miracle of economic growth. By the end of the 20th century, China and India, the two largest developing countries in the world, had begun to show their strength and become the two fastest growing economies in the world. India and China are known as the BRICs, and both expect to overtake the United States as the world's top two economies around 2050. India's GDP grew faster than China's for the first time in 2010. India's GDP hit $4.46 trillion in 2011, overtaking Japan as the world's third-largest economy, according to data released by the International Monetary Fund. From the first quarter of 2012 to 2014, however, India's economic growth slowed markedly, with only 5 percent expected to grow in 2014, and the BRICS "color" faded. Compared with other developing countries to promote economic development through industrialization, India's manufacturing industry has been slow, on the contrary, the tertiary industry is developing very quickly. The purpose of this paper is to use the economic growth model to analyze India's economic development and to evaluate the potential of India's economic growth. First of all, this paper analyzes India's economic growth. As the reform of Rao has caused structural changes in India's economic system, this paper analyzes the process of India's economic growth before and after Rao's reform. Then, by measuring the potential output and the output gap, this paper estimates the potential of India's economic growth without a great change in the economic environment in the short term. However, we would prefer to know whether India will be able to maintain a high growth rate for some time to come. So this paper forecasts the growth rate of India's GDP. In this paper, two methods are used to predict the growth rate of India's GDP to avoid the deviation caused by a single method. Of course, for a developing country like India, its own economic development is inevitably affected by non-economic factors. Therefore, in the last part of this paper, the author analyzes the internal and external factors that affect India's economic growth, and tries to point out the influence of these factors on India's future economic growth. After analyzing the political, cultural and security issues within India, this paper analyzes the relationship between India and several of its close countries and regions under the trend of globalization. Given the lack of internal momentum in economic development, developing relations with other countries will be the key to India's opening the door to economic growth. According to the analysis, India will reach an annual average of 8-9% in the next 10 years. It can be said that India still has a relatively large potential for economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F135.1

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