基于熵测度的我国产业不平衡发展与经济增长相关性分析

发布时间：2019-06-27 08:59

【摘要】：1958年，美国经济学家艾伯特·赫希曼（Albert Otto Hirschman）从主要稀缺资源应该得到充分利用的认识出发，提出了产业不平衡发展理论。该理论认为，各国应该根据具体的资源禀赋情况有重点、有顺序、有倾斜的发展各产业，对于后起步的发展中国家应当集中有限的人力、物力、财力优先发展某些重点产业，这些产业的腾飞能进一步带动关联产业的起步和发展。这一理论的核心观点符合经济发展的一般规律，也体现了辩证法的哲学思想，对各国制定发展战略具有重要的指导意义。回顾历史，我国在经济建设过程中实施过两次很明显的产业不平衡发展战略：第一次是，建国后集中人力物力完成工业化；第二次是，改革开放以来大力发展劳动密集型的出口产业。这两次产业不平衡发展战略在一定程度上带动了国家的经济发展，，但是也伴随着产生了一些负面影响。“十二五”规划将加速经济结构调整转变提高到国家战略的高度。在这种背景下，产业不平衡发展与经济增长的相关性问题再次受到人们的关注。我们以赫希曼（Hirschman）的不平衡发展理论为研究的逻辑起点，整理并分析了样本城市近十年经济改革和对外开放的实际产业数据；依据熵理论在产业经济领域的应用，界定了离散状态下的产业熵与关联状态下的产业熵；通过建立离散状态下的产业熵模型与关联状态下的产业熵模型，综合运用多元统计分析方法，以量化的手段探析城市产业不平衡发展与经济增长两者之间的关系。本文通过建立模型对数据分析，得出结论：经济增长与产业熵存在负相关关系，有意的降低产业熵有利于经济的增长，而且其相关程度与样本城市的经济规律性有关。我们首次从态分布的视角研究产业不平衡发展程度与经济增长之间的关系，并且，从实证角度验证了艾伯特·赫希曼（Albert Otto Hirschman）的不平衡发展理论在我国城市产业发展中的应用。
[Abstract]:In 1958, American economist Albert Hershman (Albert Otto Hirschman) put forward the theory of industrial imbalance development from the understanding that the main scarce resources should be fully utilized. According to the theory, countries should develop various industries according to the specific resource endowment, and the developing countries should concentrate the limited human, material and financial resources to develop some key industries, and the take-off of these industries can further promote the start and development of related industries. The core point of view of this theory accords with the general law of economic development, also embodies the philosophical thought of dialectics, and has important guiding significance for all countries to formulate development strategy. Looking back on history, China has implemented two obvious industrial unbalanced development strategies in the process of economic construction: the first is to concentrate human and material resources to complete industrialization after the founding of the people's Republic of China; the second is to vigorously develop labor-intensive export industries since the reform and opening up. To a certain extent, the unbalanced development strategy of these two industries has led to the economic development of the country, but it has also had some negative effects. The 12th five-year Plan will accelerate the transformation of economic restructuring to the height of national strategy. In this context, the correlation between industrial unbalanced development and economic growth has once again attracted people's attention. Taking Hershman (Hirschman) 's unbalanced development theory as the logical starting point, we collate and analyze the actual industrial data of the sample city's economic reform and opening to the outside world in recent ten years, and define the industrial entropy in discrete state and related state according to the application of entropy theory in the field of industrial economy. Through the establishment of the industrial entropy model in the discrete state and the industrial entropy model in the related state, the relationship between the unbalanced development of urban industry and economic growth is analyzed by means of quantitative means by using the method of multivariate statistical analysis. Through the analysis of the data by establishing the model, this paper draws the conclusion that there is a negative correlation between economic growth and industrial entropy, and the intentional reduction of industrial entropy is beneficial to economic growth, and its correlation degree is related to the economic regularity of the sample cities. For the first time, we study the relationship between the degree of industrial imbalance development and economic growth from the perspective of state distribution, and verify the application of Albert Hershman (Albert Otto Hirschman) 's unbalanced development theory in the development of urban industry in China from an empirical point of view.
【学位授予单位】：北京工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1;F224;F279.2

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