灾害损失与经济增长:基于中国2002—2011年的省际面板数据分析

发布时间：2019-06-29 10:26

【摘要】：自然灾害问题的日益严重化及其对经济社会发展特别是经济持续增长的严重威胁,使得各国都越来越重视对灾害经济学的研究。本文利用中国31个不同省份2002—2011年的面板数据,运用Eviews6.0和Stata11进行了三种情况的面板回归分析:(1)不考虑灾害损失变量的面板回归;(2)考虑灾害损失但无门限变量的面板回归;(3)灾害损失作为门限变量的面板门限回归。在此基础上,比较分析灾害损失和经济增长之间的关系,并得出结论:灾害损失与经济增长存在着长期协整关系,并且存在双门限效应的非线性关系,当灾害损失占GDP比重低于0.0103时,灾害损失对经济增长具有一定的正向促进作用,也就是说灾害损失能一定程度上刺激经济增长。当灾害损失占GDP比重高于0.0103时,灾害损失与经济增长负相关,在发展经济过程中,要警惕"创造性破坏"。
[Abstract]:With the increasing severity of natural disasters and its serious threat to economic and social development, especially to the sustained economic growth, countries pay more and more attention to the study of disaster economics. Based on the panel data of 31 different provinces in China from 2002 to 2011, this paper uses Eviews6.0 and Stata11 to carry out panel regression analysis of three cases: (1) panel regression without considering disaster loss variables; (2) panel regression considering disaster loss but no threshold variable; (3) panel threshold regression with disaster loss as threshold variable. On this basis, the relationship between disaster loss and economic growth is compared and analyzed, and it is concluded that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between disaster loss and economic growth, and there is a nonlinear relationship with double threshold effect. when the proportion of disaster loss to GDP is less than 0.0103, disaster loss has a certain positive promoting effect on economic growth, that is to say, disaster loss can stimulate economic growth to a certain extent. When the proportion of disaster loss in GDP is more than 0.0103, disaster loss is negatively related to economic growth. In the process of economic development, we should be alert to "creative destruction".
【作者单位】：山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(项目批准号:11YJC630245) 山西省统计学会课题(项目批准号:KY[2013]092)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：X43;F127

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