技术冲击、碳排放与气候环境——基于DICE模型框架的模拟

发布时间：2019-06-30 20:19

【摘要】：本文基于DICE模型的框架建立了一个经济一气候综合反馈响应模型,在不确定技术的假定下以2000年为起点,模拟了100年间我国经济产出、工业碳排放量以及全球大气温度的变化趋势。模拟的结果显示2050年大气温度将在2000年的基础上上升约2摄氏度。另外,本文研究了产出、资本存量、消费、工业碳排放量以及全球大气温度对一般生产技术和能源相关技术冲击的响应,研究表明两种技术冲击的传导路径、变量对冲击的响应机制是截然不同的。一般生产技术冲击对产出的影响是直接和同步的,能源相关技术对工业碳排放量的影响是直接和同步的,在两种技术共同作用下对大气温度和工业碳排放量的影响方向是不确定的。最后,本文给出了关于政府RD资金配置结构的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:In this paper, based on the framework of DICE model, an economic-climate comprehensive feedback response model is established. Under the assumption of uncertain technology, the change trend of economic output, industrial carbon emissions and global atmospheric temperature in China during the past 100 years is simulated with 2000 as the starting point. The simulation results show that atmospheric temperature will rise by about 2 degrees Celsius in 2050 from the 2000 level. In addition, this paper studies the response of output, capital stock, consumption, industrial carbon emissions and global atmospheric temperature to the impact of general production technology and energy-related technology. The results show that the transmission path of the two technological shocks and the response mechanism of variables to the impact are very different. The impact of general production technology impact on output is direct and synchronous, and the impact of energy-related technologies on industrial carbon emissions is direct and synchronous. Under the combined action of the two technologies, the impact direction on atmospheric temperature and industrial carbon emissions is uncertain. Finally, this paper gives some policy suggestions on the allocation structure of government RD funds.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学统计与数学学院;
【分类号】：X22;F124

【参考文献】