基于IC卡数据的不同时间层次公交客流预测方法与应用研究

发布时间：2018-01-05 22:06

本文关键词：基于IC卡数据的不同时间层次公交客流预测方法与应用研究　出处：《东南大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在新世纪信息化时代的背景下,各大城市中公交IC卡的使用越来越普遍,其产生的数据也越来越多。这不仅方便了广大乘客,也提供了一种新的客流调查统计手段。因此研究如何从大量的公交IC卡数据中获得公交规划和公交运营管理所需要的公交客流信息,并利用客流信息总结规律,通过科学合理的客流预测来指导实践具有重要意义和发展前景。本文以常州市IC卡数据和客流报表数据为数据基础,首先介绍了客流的基本定义,确定了适合公交IC卡分析的客流概念为上车客流,然后分析了IC卡数据的产生过程,利用IC卡数据可和GPS数据库联合分析,推导公交乘客的上车站点,提出基于下车概率的乘客下车站点的推断方法；然后以时间维度为切入点,公交系统、公交线路和公交站点为次要分析维度,发现并掌握不同时间层次的客流规律；通过客流规律总结,运用时间序列分析方法将客流数据用于客流预测,运用Eviews软件,建立SARIMA模型和ARIMA模型,预测效果优良；最后从公交规划、运营与管理的客流信息需求出发,根据IC卡数据得到的客流信息特点,提出将不同时间层次的客流信息用于公交规划中的公交出行OD推导过程、基于现有公交线网的公交线网优化过程；公交运营管理中的客流预报、运力配置过程、发车时间间隔计算过程和公交调度过程,并提出相关的应用流程。以常州市7路公交线路为例,进行案例分析,试算7路车的发车间隔和发车时刻表。
[Abstract]:In the new century under the background of the information age, each big city in the public transportation IC card is used more and more widely, the data is more and more. It is not only convenient for the majority of passengers, but also provides a new passenger survey means. So the research of how to from a number of large passenger bus IC card according to the information and public transport planning the bus operation management are needed to obtain, and the use of passenger information and summarize the law, has important significance and development prospect of the passenger flow forecast of scientific and reasonable to guide the practice. This paper takes Changzhou City IC card data and report data as the basis of passenger flow data, first introduced the basic definition of passenger flow, to determine the suitable concept analysis for passenger bus IC card the car passenger, and then analyzes the generating process of IC card data, the use of IC card data and GPS database can be combined with analysis, derivation of bus passenger car site, based on the car The probability inference method of station passengers; and then to the time dimension as the starting point, the bus system, bus lines and bus stations as the main dimensions of analysis, discover and master the rules of passenger flow at different time levels; the passenger flow regularity, using time series analysis method will be used for passenger data of passenger flow prediction, using Eviews software, the establishment of SARIMA the model and the ARIMA model, the prediction effect is excellent; the last bus passenger demand information from planning, operation and management of passenger information according to the characteristics of IC card data obtained, the different time levels of traffic information for the public transportation OD is transit planning process, optimization of bus line of existing public transit network based on network; the bus passenger flow forecast of operation management, capacity allocation process, departure time interval calculation process and bus scheduling process, and put forward the application process related Taking the 7 Road bus line in Changzhou as an example, a case analysis is carried out to calculate the departure intervals of the 7 Road vehicles and the schedule of the departure time.

【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：U491.17

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