基于预测的快速公交信号优先设计及效果仿真

发布时间：2018-01-17 16:12

本文关键词：基于预测的快速公交信号优先设计及效果仿真　出处：《公路交通科技》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：建立了一套基于预测的公交信号优先干线联动控制方法。考虑到公交车辆在停靠站的停留时间受到多重因素的综合影响,首先构建了ARIMA-SVR的组合模型用于预测公交车辆的站点延误,并以此为重要依据,预测了公交到达交叉口的时间。通过比较车辆预计到达时间与理想时间的差值,计算了延伸和压缩信号周期的惩罚因子,根据惩罚因子的大小调整了信号周期和绿灯时间。在进行交叉口间协同控制时,又将交叉口平面设计的物理条件和交叉口群的协同控制条件纳入对信号的调整进行约束。为了验证该方法的实际应用效果,为某城市快速公交工程实例设计了VISSIM信号优先模块。研究结果表明:组合模型预测公交车辆站点延误的相关系数为0.890 4,预测精度较好;在改进的信号优先算法的情况下,公交交叉口延误比现状降低近50%,公交车车头时距一致性平均下降38.8%,且该算法为信号调整提供了较为充足的缓冲空间,在绿灯时间调整时兼顾考虑了对社会车辆的影响,因此,在预测式信号优先中,社会车辆的行驶延误和交叉口排队长度也较其他优先方法有所降低。
[Abstract]:A set of bus signal priority based on the prediction of main linkage control method. Considering the bus by the comprehensive effect of multiple factors in the residence time of the docking station, first constructed a combined model for ARIMA-SVR prediction of bus stop delay, and as an important basis, to predict bus arrival time through the intersection. Compare the difference of the vehicle is expected arrival time and the ideal time, penalty factor extension and compression of the signal cycle is calculated according to the penalty factor to adjust the size of the signal period and green time. At the intersection between cooperative control, cooperative control conditions and physical conditions of intersection plane design and intersection group into the signal the adjustment of the constraints. In order to verify the method of practical application, the design module of VISSIM signal priority for a city bus rapid transit project research. The results show that the combined model prediction coefficient of site bus delay is 0.8904, better prediction accuracy; the signal priority algorithm is improved under the condition of traffic intersection delay than the current reduction of nearly 50%, the bus headway consistency decreased 38.8%, and the algorithm provides sufficient buffer space for signal adjustment in the green time adjustment, taking into account the influence of social vehicles, therefore, in the prediction of signal priority, social vehicle delay and queuing length than other priority methods decreased.

【作者单位】：交通运输部公路科学研究院;
【分类号】：U491.54
【正文快照】： 0引言公交信号优先控制策略的研究主要经历了被动式、主动式和预测式3个阶段[1-2]。早期的被动式信号控制围绕单交叉口饱和度等影响因素建立优先控制模型,并辅以静态的干线协调控制手段[3-5]。而传统的主动信号优先控制主要以绿灯延长、红灯早断、相位插入等响应式方法,来获得

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