基于Granger因果性的陕西公路交通资源配置效率研究

发布时间：2018-02-03 23:32

本文关键词： 交通工程配置效率 Granger因果性公路交通供给区域经济发展　出处：《中国公路学报》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为了明确判断公路交通资源在区域经济中的配置效率并据此提出相应的有效决策,在分析公路交通供给和区域经济发展水平测度变量的基础上,运用主成分分析法对1993~2015年陕西公路交通供给和区域经济发展水平各测度变量的标准化数据进行降维,以获取测度公路交通供给和区域经济发展的2列综合数据,然后对其取对数以消除其异方差并降低波动性使其适用于Granger因果性分析,并对Granger因果性检验的结果进行经济学解释。研究结果表明:1993~2015年期间的任一年,陕西公路交通之前3年每年的供给是该年区域经济发展的Granger原因,可见陕西公路交通供给未处于过度配置状态;陕西区域经济前1年的发展水平是该年公路交通供给配置的Granger原因,可见陕西公路交通供给配置长期处于短缺状态;综上2个方面,相对于区域经济的不断发展,陕西公路交通资源的配置长期低于合理水平;为使陕西区域经济中的私人品和作为(准)公共品的公路交通资源实现合理的配置,陕西公路交通应大力增加其供给规划。
[Abstract]:In order to clearly judge the allocation efficiency of highway traffic resources in regional economy and put forward the corresponding effective decision, based on the analysis of highway traffic supply and regional economic development level measurement variables. By using principal component analysis method, the dimensionality reduction of the standardized data of Shaanxi highway traffic supply and regional economic development level is carried out from 1993 to 2015. In order to obtain two comprehensive data to measure the highway traffic supply and regional economic development, and then take the logarithm to eliminate its heteroscedasticity and reduce the volatility to make it suitable for Granger causality analysis. The results of Granger causality test are explained by economics. The results show that the result of this study is any year during the period from 1993 to 2015. The annual supply of Shaanxi highway traffic in the past 3 years is the Granger reason of the regional economic development in that year, it can be seen that Shaanxi highway traffic supply is not in the state of excessive allocation; The development level of Shaanxi regional economy in the first one year is the Granger reason of highway traffic supply allocation in that year, it can be seen that Shaanxi highway traffic supply allocation is in the state of shortage for a long time. Compared with the continuous development of regional economy, the allocation of highway traffic resources in Shaanxi Province has been below the reasonable level for a long time. In order to realize rational allocation of private goods in Shaanxi regional economy and highway traffic resources as (quasi-) public goods, Shaanxi highway traffic should greatly increase its supply planning.
【作者单位】：长安大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(16BZX034)
【分类号】：U491
【正文快照】： 0引言通常将公路交通基础设施视为一种准公共品,其数量与质量对区域经济竞争力和区域经济发展至关重要。健康的经济体,其内部的公共品与私人品的配置应符合一合理的比例。公共品(或准公共品)是无法完全由市场有效提供的投入资源或消费品,故通常需要政府介入。政府在进行公路交

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