城市道路交叉口左转车辆强制变道行为研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 11:51

本文选题：左转车辆强制变道行为　切入点：决策博弈　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城市道路信号交叉口是交通拥堵的主要发生源,因此是缓解交通拥堵的重点研究对象,而在信号交叉口中,左转交通是解决问题的重点和难点。很多需要左转的车辆在离交叉口较远的位置未能及时变道,而在临近交叉口前由直行车道强制进入左转专用车道,这种强制变道行为干扰了交通流的平稳运行,并且容易造成交通安全隐患,有必要对这种行为进行研究。采集左转强制变道车辆的变道时间、地点、速度和加速度等数据,运用数理统计的方法分析其变道行为特性及各种因素对变道距离、变道时间和变道速度的影响,对比分析强制变道和自由变道行驶特性的区别,全面的描述强制变道行为。左转车辆强制变道时与目标车道后车的冲突明显,建立二者的混合策略博弈模型,博弈的收益包含时间收益、安全收益和变道需求收益,求解博弈模型的混合策略纳什均衡,用于指导博弈双方的决策。用变道距离代表变道行为,选择与变道距离线性相关性最显著的因素,运用模糊逻辑的方法建立变道距离的预测模型,用于变道行为的预判和选择。将模型预测值与实际值、线性回归预测值进行对比检验,并根据变道时间、变道速度与变道距离的关系将模型进行扩展。运用交通流理论和运动学理论研究左转车辆强制变道行为对交通运行效率的影响,包括变道造成的自身的延误和对目标车道后车造成的延误。运用交通冲突法研究强制变道对交通安全的影响,定义强制变道的冲突,并建立冲突严重性界定指标,据此将冲突分为不发生冲突、轻微冲突、一般冲突和严重冲突。为了尽量规避、减少左转车辆强制变道带来的不良影响,提出基于最大排队长度的交叉口导向箭头及禁止变道标线设置方法,分饱和状态和非饱和状态详细分析,提醒车辆提前进行强制变道。基于博弈论提出对危险强制变道行为进行监控和处罚的管理办法,以约束其行为决策。
[Abstract]:The signalized intersection of urban roads is the main source of traffic congestion, so it is the key research object to alleviate traffic congestion, and in the signalized intersection, Turning left traffic is the key and difficult point to solve the problem. Many vehicles that need to turn left fail to change track in time when they are farther away from the intersection, and forced into the left turn lane by the direct lane before approaching the intersection. This behavior interferes with the smooth running of traffic flow and easily causes traffic safety hazards. It is necessary to study this behavior. Data on the time, location, speed and acceleration of the change of track of the forced left-turn vehicle are collected. The influence of various factors on the path distance, time and velocity is analyzed by means of mathematical statistics, and the difference between the driving characteristics of forced and free channel is compared and analyzed. The conflict between the left-turn vehicle and the vehicle behind the target lane is obvious. The mixed strategy game model of the two is established. The income of the game includes the time income, the safety benefit and the change path demand income. The mixed strategy Nash equilibrium for solving the game model is used to guide the decision of both sides of the game. The prediction model of variable trace distance is established by the method of fuzzy logic, which is used to predict and select the behavior of variable channel. The predicted value of the model is compared with the actual value, and the predicted value of linear regression is compared with the predicted value of linear regression. The model is extended by the relationship between the changing speed and the changing distance. The effect of forced change of track behavior on the traffic efficiency is studied by using the traffic flow theory and kinematics theory. Using the traffic conflict method to study the impact of the forced diversion on traffic safety, to define the conflict of the forced change of road, and to establish the index to define the severity of the conflict, including the delay caused by the change of track and the delay caused by the vehicle behind the target lane. According to this, conflicts are divided into non-conflict, minor conflict, general conflict and serious conflict. Based on the maximum queue length, this paper presents a method for setting the orientation arrow and forbidden track marking of intersections, and analyzes the saturation state and unsaturated state in detail. Based on game theory, a management method for monitoring and punishing dangerous forced lane shifting is proposed to restrict its behavior decision.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491

【参考文献】