多车道高速公路运行方式对分流区交通安全影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 03:19

本文选题：多车道高速公路 + 分流区　；参考：《东南大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：我国通道型高速公路多为双向六车道及以上的多车道高速公路,其运行方式较为灵活,可在左侧车道限制货车通行。这种运行方式在降低客货车混合程度的同时,导致货车集中在右侧车道,对换道车辆形成屏障,易产生冲突。在分流区,存在大量强制性换道,货车屏障效应较为明显,研究多车道高速公路运行方式对分流区交通安全的影响,具有重要意义。论文界定了运行方式的基本概念,统计车道限制策略下某高速公路的交通量、车头时距和速度,分析交通流特征。基于数据流分析技术,采用在线聚类和离线聚类双层框架,对货车屏障进行识别。研究了分流区的几何特征、运行特征和性能指标。明确了分流区和分流影响区的范围,将分流区在长度上划分为预告、准备、实施、恢复四个阶段,分析了分流区宽度对交通运行的影响。根据强制性换道的最低次数及换道性质,划分了分流区的四种基本构型,并由此组合形成3种常见的多重分流区。提出以一定分流数量下,直行最大交通量作为分流区通行能力,并基于间隙-接受理论进行计算。同时以密度作为分流区服务水平判别标准,划分了顺畅、抢道、延误、中断四种分流形态。观测了某高速公路上的分流行为,建立并统计了分流强度、分流长度、分流速度等描述分流难易程度的性能指标。从宏观和微观两个层次建立分流区交通流模型。归纳了交通流相变特征,以及交通流的流体力学模型和动力学模型,研究了分流区交通流的动力机制、混沌现象和稳定性。分析了不同运行方式下交通流建模特征。阐述了驾驶行为的动力机制、影响因素和层次结构,把驾驶行为模型分为行为主义、符号主义和联结主式三类模式。以强制性换道作为分流区的主要行为特征,基于有限理性准则和前景理论建立模型,利用元胞自动机对模型进行仿真验证。分析了车道限制策略对小车换道行为的影响。采用交通冲突技术对分流区的交通安全进行评价。分析了分流区交通冲突形成机理及特征。综合交通冲突的潜在性、严重性、持续性、动态性和有限性,提出指标需求,建立基于动量的瞬时冲突、累积冲突、平均冲突和统计冲突等四项指标。为校验模型的准确性,制定交通冲突的观测、统计和修正方法。引入换道阶段模型和Newell跟驰模型,计算换道过程中的交通冲突,标定了模型参数。分别基于回归分析、神经网络和分形理论,集成交通冲突和交通稳定性等其他交通安全评价指标。提出不同运行方式下分流区交通冲突仿真方案。从运行方式选择、上游限速和长度设置等三方面建立分流区交通安全对策体系。构造了运行方式选择流程,参照Wardorp平衡原理,预测交通流在车道上的分布,标定交通流参数。分别基于效用函数和区间概率,建立运行方式选择的决策模型。考虑到交通运行的不确定性,运用模糊推理,制定分流区上游限速策略。运用回旋曲线拟合车辆换道轨迹,进而采用重复博弈理论建立连续多次换道的轨迹模型,计算分流区合理长度。
[Abstract]:The channel type Expressway in our country is mostly two-way six lane and above multi Lane freeway. Its operation mode is more flexible. It can restrict the freight traffic in the left lane. This operation mode can reduce the mixing degree of the passenger and freight car, and cause the freight car to concentrate on the right lane and form a barrier to the change vehicle. The effect of freight car barrier is more obvious in a large number of compulsory lane changing. It is of great significance to study the influence of multi lane highway operation mode on the traffic safety of the distributary area. This paper defines the basic concept of the operation mode, statistics the traffic volume, the distance and speed of the headway under the lane restriction strategy, and analyses the characteristics of the traffic flow. According to the flow analysis technology, the on-line clustering and off-line clustering double layer frame is adopted to identify the freight car barrier. The geometric features, the running characteristics and the performance indexes of the distributary area are studied. The range of the distributary area and the distributary influence area is clearly defined. The distributary area is divided into four stages, such as the forecast, the quasi preparation, the implementation and the recovery, and the width of the distributary area is analyzed. According to the minimum times and changing properties of the mandatory lane change, the four basic configurations of the distributary area are divided and 3 common multiple distributary areas are formed, and the maximum traffic capacity under a certain distributary number is proposed as the capacity of the distributary area, and the calculation is based on the gap acceptance theory. As a criterion for the service level of the distributary area, the density is divided into four kinds of distributary forms, such as smooth, rush, delay and interruption. The distributary behavior on a highway is observed, and the performance index of the diffluence intensity, the length of the distributary and the velocity of the shunt, etc., are established and counted. The traffic flow in the distributary area is established from the macro and micro two levels. The characteristics of the traffic flow phase change, the hydrodynamic model and the dynamic model of the traffic flow are summed up. The dynamic mechanism, the chaos and the stability of the traffic flow in the distributary area are studied. The characteristics of the traffic flow modeling under different operating modes are analyzed. The dynamic mechanism, the influence factors and the hierarchy structure of the driving behavior are expounded, and the driving behavior model is described. It is divided into three types: behaviorism, symbolism and joint main type. It takes the mandatory change as the main behavior feature of the distributary area, establishes the model based on the finite rational criterion and the foreground theory, and uses the cellular automata to simulate the model. The influence of lane restriction strategy on the change of the lane change is analyzed. The traffic conflict technology is adopted. The traffic safety of the distributary area is evaluated. The formation mechanism and characteristics of the traffic conflict in the distributary area are analyzed. The potential, severity, continuity, dynamics and finiteness of the comprehensive traffic conflict are put forward, and four indexes, such as instantaneous conflict, cumulative conflict, average rush and statistical conflict, are set up, and the accuracy of the model is verified. To formulate the traffic conflict observation, statistics and correction methods, introduce the change stage model and the Newell following model, calculate the traffic conflict in the change process, and demarcate the model parameters. Based on the regression analysis, the neural network and the fractal theory, the other traffic safety evaluation indexes such as the traffic conflict and the traffic stability are integrated, and the different transportation is put forward. The traffic conflict simulation scheme in the distributary area is established. From three aspects, the operation mode selection, the upstream speed limit and the length setting, the traffic safety countermeasures system is set up. The operation mode selection process is constructed. According to the Wardorp equilibrium principle, the distribution of traffic flow on the lane is predicted and the traffic flow parameters are determined. The utility function and the interval are based on the utility function and the interval respectively. The decision model of the choice of operation mode is established. Taking into account the uncertainty of traffic operation, using fuzzy reasoning, the speed limit strategy is formulated in the upstream of the distributary area. The trajectory of the vehicle is fitted by the cyclotron curve, and the repeated game theory is used to establish the trajectory model of the continuous multiple channels, and the reasonable length of the distributary area is calculated.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491

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