基于排队论的港口航道通过能力仿真研究

发布时间：2018-10-05 07:57

【摘要】：港口航道通过能力的计算是沿海港口航道规划建设的重要课题。确定一个科学、准确的计算分析方法能提高泊位装卸效率,降低船舶待泊成本。然而港口航道通过能力的计算具有随机因素多,船舶密度通常比较大,航道情况复杂多变等情况,因此采用传统的经验公式计算港口航道通过能力在准确性上还不成熟。本文引入排队论和离散仿真思想能够较真实、准确解决港口航道通过能力计算问题。首先,介绍排队论相关基础理论和计算公式,详细阐述M/M/C排队模型,对该模型中排队系统平均到达率、服务机构服务率、平均队长、平均等待队长、顾客等待时间和逗留时间公式进行推导。同时介绍离散系统仿真理论,将上述排队论计算指标用于港口航道仿真建模中。其次,仿真建模开始阶段提出港口航道通过能力的概念并分析其影响因素,修正了航道容量计算公式,以便计算仿真过程服务台数量。仿真实现阶段重点分析船舶到港规律和船舶在泊停时规律,利用离散仿真软件Rockwell Arena中的Input Analyzer验证船舶平均到达率服从泊松分布,修正船舶在泊停时服从二阶爱尔朗分布。然后,借助Arena软件可视化交互集成的特性,将其中的流程模块(Flowchart Module)、数据模块(Data Module)、实体(Entity)数据,队列(Queue)数据和资源(Resource)数据依据港口航道作业系统逻辑图构建港口航道通过能力仿真模型,分析船舶到达时间间隔,船舶等待时间,船舶等待长度以及泊位利用率,并通过MATLAB绘制它们之间的关系图,为航道规划、改扩建提供依据。最后,将构建的港口航道通过能力仿真模型在具体港口常熟港进行应用分析。同时计算出评价港口航道通过能力的各项参数和港口服务水平(AWT/AST),所建立的仿真模型可以实现动态的改变船舶到达规律,以期得到最佳航道容量和泊位利用率。并且模型输出结果和港口实际统计资料对比,证明本文利用排队论思想建立的仿真模型具有较好的真实性和准确性。
[Abstract]:The calculation of the passage capacity of the port channel is an important subject in the planning and construction of the coastal port channel. Determining a scientific and accurate calculation and analysis method can improve the berth handling efficiency and reduce the ship's waiting cost. However, the calculation of the passage capacity of the port channel has many random factors, such as the ship density is usually relatively large, the waterway situation is complex and changeable, so it is not mature to use the traditional empirical formula to calculate the passage capacity of the port channel. In this paper, the theory of queue and discrete simulation can be used to solve the problem of calculating the passing capacity of port and waterway accurately. First of all, the basic theory and calculation formula of queuing theory are introduced, and the M/C queuing model is described in detail. The average arrival rate of queuing system, service rate of service organization, average queue length, average waiting length in this model are discussed. The formula of customer waiting time and staying time is derived. At the same time, the theory of discrete system simulation is introduced, and the above calculation index of queuing theory is applied to the simulation modeling of port and waterway. Secondly, at the beginning of simulation modeling, the concept of port waterway passing capacity is put forward and its influence factors are analyzed, and the calculation formula of channel capacity is revised to calculate the number of service desks in the simulation process. In the stage of simulation, the law of ship arrival and the law of ship stopping at berth are analyzed, and the distribution of average arrival rate from Poisson is verified by Input Analyzer in the discrete simulation software Rockwell Arena, and the second order Erlang distribution is corrected. Then, with the help of the feature of visual interactive integration of Arena software, the process module, (Flowchart Module), data module, (Data Module), entity (Entity) data is used. According to the logic diagram of port channel operation system, the simulation model of port channel passing capacity is constructed by queue (Queue) data and resource (Resource) data, and the ship arrival time interval, ship waiting time, ship waiting length and berth utilization ratio are analyzed. The relationship between them is drawn by MATLAB, which provides the basis for channel planning, reconstruction and extension. Finally, the simulation model of port waterway capacity is applied to Changshu port. At the same time, the parameters and port service level (AWT/AST) are calculated to evaluate the passage capacity of the port channel. The simulation model can dynamically change the arrival rule of the ship, in order to obtain the optimal channel capacity and berth utilization ratio. The comparison between the model output and the port statistical data proves that the simulation model based on queuing theory is reliable and accurate.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U652;U697

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